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February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1


Guest hawkstwelve

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Fun commute down I-90 this morning... my son went to a movie last night in the Highlands and said you do not want to change lanes.

 

090vc02567.jpg

 

He also said the roads in the Highlands were much worse than our hill which is clear down to the pavement and treated.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Fun commute down I-90 this morning... my son went to a movie last night in the Highlands and said you do not want to change lanes.

 

He also said the roads in the Highlands were much worse than our hill which is clearer down to the pavement and treated.

Was it bad last night or this morning?  I was planning to drive in to Issaquah Swedish for some projects I have going on up there but can always cancel if I need to.

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Was it bad last night or this morning? I was planning to drive in to Issaquah Swedish for some projects I have going on up there but can always cancel if I need to.

Bad last night but it will be no different now. He said it was really "sketchy" up there.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Unbelievable FV3 run as well. It's still going at the time of this frame too. Look at those totals up north!!

 

attachicon.giffv3 2-5 6z.png

This type of unique pattern of lows dropping in from the N/NW off the coast with N/NE Arctic winds and a foot plus of progged snowfall reminds me a whole lot of Dec 2008. Lord in heaven the snow was unbelievably deep then due to the retrograde of the lows after it dove down and stalled for a couple days. Spokane got the literal sweet spot for massive snowfall. Not every run do you see the east side getting as much snow as the pass!

 

The beauty of this pattern is that everyone has potential to receive significant snow depending on the setup.

 

Man with how mild this winter started...I seriously thought global warming and El Niño we’re giving a preview of mild future non-winters....guess it’s best to not get too convinced of anything hehe. Solar minimums, the last two that I’ve been a watcher of weather and a met....have all been quite snowy - not just for the inland NW but for everyone - which makes winter wildly more fascinating for model riding (and skiing!).

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Thought maybe they would treat the roads overnight or something.   Hmmm...

 

Not sure... I did not go up there myself.   But for my son to say it was bad... means it was probably pretty bad.   

 

Here is a live traffic cam by the hospital... does not look too bad.

 

high.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like Portland Public Schools are closed, K12 should be a happy camper this morning.

 

I bet he's Beaverton district. Just a 2 hour delay...

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Salem Keizer schools are closed today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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As of right now... I am scheduled in a meeting from 10 - 12 this morning which will likely impact my ability to provide real time updates on the ECMWF run.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SIlver Falls School District (Silverton) is closed too.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Another reason why you don't want to trust your weather app or weather.com:

 

It is showing Bellingham with highs in the 40's this week and with higher temps than Seattle.

 

 

My phone usually seems to follow the ECMWF closely... and updates often happen after a new ECMWF run is completed.   But its been WAY off this week.   On Sunday it was showing highs in the low 40s here all week with a chance of rain/snow on a couple days.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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One picture that features the two big events we have had so far this season!

 

Also it is currently 17.8 degrees under mostly cloudy skies.

3E52891C-5774-41E4-845B-FA8290E9C490.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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My phone usually seems to follow the ECMWF closely... and updates often happen after a new ECMWF run is completed. But its been WAY off this week. On Sunday it was showing highs in the low 40s here all week with a chance of rain/snow on a couple days.

Cliff Mass.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Looks like it snowed more overnight. Up to 1.25” out there. Everything is absolutely flocked, looks gorgeous.

 

Temp is down to 26 now with clearing skies, DP 19. Feels surreal that this could be just the first event.

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I have now matched my snow total from the February 2014 event. 

 

Though that event was MUCH colder here. I had a 23/13 day on 2/6/14.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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NAM is more progressive with the low sliding due south without really intensifying.

The low sliding south off the coast is irrelevant. We are looking for a low to form off Vancouver Island later in the day Friday. Did you see the 12Z ICON. It is the ideal setup for southern Vancouver Island.
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Looks like a low of 27 this morning with the solid cloud deck. Would be nice to get some clearing tonight and see an impressive low, but I'm fine either way...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The low sliding south off the coast is irrelevant. We are looking for a low to form off Vancouver Island later in the day Friday. Did you see the 12Z ICON. It is the ideal setup for southern Vancouver Island.

It is. I would say 4 to 8 inches from that one. Thoughts?

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The low sliding south off the coast is irrelevant. We are looking for a low to form off Vancouver Island later in the day Friday. Did you see the 12Z ICON. It is the ideal setup for southern Vancouver Island.

 

ICON could be better down here for the lowlanders, but overall its not bad. The only question up at this elevation is if the precip late week starts as rain for 2-3 hours or if it is just all snow...ICON looks decent for snow showers to the valley floor over the weekend. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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NWS is reporting PDX got 1.5" not sure if that is the official number or not though. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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GFS is good Seattle north. Great actually. 

 

It is absolutely terrible for PDX and Western Oregon.

 

Looks a lot like the most recent event. So maybe it turns out well for everyone eventually.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A couple things I've noticed as a Northerner living amongst all y'all Southerners :P

 

The roads are far more "icier" down here in WA. By this point in Juneau everything would be plowed and sanded. The packed snow just turns to a total slick mess with everyone driving on it.

 

Have to laugh at the number of "bunker cars" that I have seen.... people driving around in snow covered car with a little "slit" of snow brushed off for them to view while driving. Kind of hilarious until I realize that I'm sharing the road with these people.

 

I've seen one plow truck in Everett.. Probably the only one? Lol.

 

 

With this cold weather a good trick is to put some silicone oil on the rubber gaskets on your car door, that way it will be easier to open and save the rubber from getting torn up.

 

Got some good ice climbing in on Chair Peak up on Snoqualmie on Sunday. Now I'm starting to wonder if some lower elevation ice will be good to go! I'm super excited about this.

 

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"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku

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GFS is good Seattle north. Great actually. 

 

It is absolutely terrible for PDX and Western Oregon.

 

Looks a lot like the most recent event. So maybe it turns out well for everyone eventually.

 

Actually shows rain in Seattle for maybe 12 hours... a little different than the previous storm but the track is similar.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Seattle north is going to score big again regardless. I think W. Oregon may be fine, but we'll see. It's only Tuesday. GFS looks like what we JUST had. Even with the deformation as the low departs giving us W. Oregon whiners a little snow.

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_21.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Actually shows rain in Seattle for maybe 12 hours... a little different than the previous storm but the track is similar.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.png

 

Shows about 6-12 hours of rain for me too...Didn't Seattle start as rain Sunday too...This run looks like a carbon copy.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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