February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Perturbed Member]

Mark Nelsen also apparently calling for at least 4-6. I mean, most models show that. PDX will be in the borderline for this one, and I think Monday-Tuesday has more potential.

 

Where'd you hear that? I'd be really surprised if Mark said 4-6 right now over the air. 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

18z Euro snow totals through 10PM Saturday.

 

Looks fairly similar to 12z, about an inch or two more for most places. Notable increase over East King County.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Down to 30 here already. With east wind coming tomorrow and dewpoints already low I have a hard time believing we will see much rain on Friday...

I agree.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18z Euro snow totals through 10PM Saturday.

 

Looks fairly similar to 12z, about an inch or two more for most places. Notable increase over East King County.

 

Thanks for sharing Hawk!

[Front Ranger]

Keep in mind, the Euro also underestimated snowfall for many places with the last storm. Just not as much as the GFS.

 

And that was without the dry/cold air in place like we have this time.

[Cloud]

Keep in mind, the Euro also underestimated snowfall for many places with the last storm. Just not as much as the GFS.

 

And that was without the dry/cold air in place like we have this time.

Yes. This was a point made by Cliff Mass in one of his blog and it was 24 hours leading up to the snow. The Euro has a lot of support and rightfully so, but it isn’t the holy grail. It just leads the way and the rest follows.

[Requiem]

Where'd you hear that? I'd be really surprised if Mark said 4-6 right now over the air.

 

Yeah, I should be better about these unverified rumors: apparently someone on the FOX12WeatherBlog heard/saw it. Steve Pierce definitely said it though. And Mark does think that the easterly influence is being underplayed for PDX.

[bainbridgekid]

Keep in mind, the Euro also underestimated snowfall for many places with the last storm. Just not as much as the GFS.

 

And that was without the dry/cold air in place like we have this time.

It is definitely interesting to consider the possibility that models again underestimate the strength and duration of the deformation band.

 

They certainly did this weekend (both Sunday night around Seattle and Monday night around Portland) and it seems they very often get hung up longer than progged. If that were to happen again, we could be looking at some pretty incredible numbers.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Keep in mind, the Euro also underestimated snowfall for many places with the last storm. Just not as much as the GFS.

 

And that was without the dry/cold air in place like we have this time.

Good points Ranger.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Where'd you hear that? I'd be really surprised if Mark said 4-6 right now over the air.

Yeah, I should be better about these unverified rumors: apparently someone on the FOX12WeatherBlog heard/saw it. Steve Pierce definitely said it though. And Mark does think that the easterly influence is being underplayed for PDX.

Hopefully Mark will have a new blog post soon. I'm interested to see his thoughts.

[Deweydog]

It is definitely interesting to consider the possibility that models again underestimate the strength and duration of the deformation band.

 

They certainly did this weekend (both Sunday night around Seattle and Monday night around Portland) and it seems they very often get hung up longer than progged. If that were to happen again, we could be looking at some pretty incredible numbers.

The Euro and somewhat the NAM actually handled our deformation-lite really well.

[joaqweri]

almost reached 40°F today. topped out with a high of 39°F. got down to 21°F this morning. not expecting temps to reach 40°F tomorrow as the sun is gonna be blocked out by the clouds moving in ahead of the incoming snowstorm.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

I just don't see many places starting as rain. Perhaps, as Snowmizer said, the coast and south of Olympia but not anywhere else.

 

18z Euro shows...

• Surface temps generally in the low 30s at 1PM, which is the high of the day. Low 40s near Olympia and the SW Interior. By 4PM, temps have dropped below freezing in many places and the SW Interior has dropped to 33-35 degrees.
• DP's in the upper teens/low 20s at 1PM and upper 20s by 4PM.
• Southerly flow up through the Sound around 1PM but that turns offshore most places from Pierce County northward by 4PM.
• 850mb temps are either -6 or -7c throughout the day; they reach -5c only in the SW Interior for a brief period

I don't have access to 925mb temps but unless those are skyrocketing during the day, I just don't see how places anywhere north of Thurston or Lewis counties start as rain.

[bainbridgekid]

The Euro and somewhat the NAM actually handled our deformation-lite really well.

I knew they showed the band's existence, but did either show widespread 1-2" amounts?

 

And I saw reports Camas got like 4". I didn't think either showed over about 0.1" of QPF for anyone near PDX.

[Cloud]

Just like that its down to freezing... high of 36 again same as yesterday. Except yesterday it was 36 from noon-2pm then temps drop. Today it was 36 from noon-4pm.

 

Low reached 16 again last night... same as previous.

Keep in mind, rarely does Boeing Field is this cold.

 

Talkk about carbon copy.

[joaqweri]

I just don't see many places starting as rain. Perhaps, as Snowmizer said, the coast and south of Olympia but not anywhere else.

 

18z Euro shows...

• Surface temps generally in the low 30s at 1PM, which is the high of the day. Low 40s near Olympia and the SW Interior. By 4PM, temps have dropped below freezing in many places and the SW Interior has dropped to 33-35 degrees.
• DP's in the upper teens/low 20s at 1PM and upper 20s by 4PM.
• Southerly flow up through the Sound around 1PM but that turns offshore most places from Pierce County northward by 4PM.
• 850mb temps are either -6 or -7c throughout the day; they reach -5c only in the SW Interior for a brief period

I don't have access to 925mb temps but unless those are skyrocketing during the day, I just don't see how places anywhere north of Thurston or Lewis counties start as rain.

you can see 925mb temps for most models on weathernerds.org, it's free

[Deweydog]

I knew they showed the band's existence, but did either show widespread 1-2" amounts?

 

And I saw reports Camas got like 4". I didn't think either showed over about 0.1" of QPF for anyone near PDX.

Most places had between 1 and 1.5 inches, very similar to what the Euro showed. The Camas/Corbett amounts were elevation-dependent as there are a lot of areas out there between 500-1000 feet. The Euro showed enhanced totals out toward the foothills as well. Also handled the cut off on the west side really well.

 

With what seemed like pretty weak forcing I was really impressed how well it was handled.

[The Swamp]

NWS is clearly being conservative once again with the totals... calling for 3-4” and I believe this is a tactic to prevent people from panicking as this is on the best case scenario for everyone no doubt their number will adjust within the next 48 hours

I don’t think the difference between 3-5” and 6-10” really means much to normal people. To us it does. Seattle shuts down with heavy frost.

[TT-SEA]

I don’t think the difference between 3-5” and 6-10” really means much to normal people. To us it does. Seattle shuts down with heavy frost.

 

Very true!

 

Just the word "snow" causes panic.   

[Guest hawkstwelve]

To add to my post above, the low 40s in the SW Interior/Olympia area seem odd. Temps jump from freezing at 10AM to low 40s at 1PM and then back down to near freezing by 4PM.

 

Might be a case of too quick to scour out the cold air. Seems awfully fast to rise 10 degrees and then fall 10 degrees just off some light southerly flow.

[Cloud]

I don’t think the difference between 3-5” and 6-10” really means much to normal people. To us it does. Seattle shuts down with heavy frost.

This is the truth. Outside of the terrains one of the obvious reason is also the warm surfaces as precip starts falling... the snow melts before they are cool enough to accumulate...when we freeze, by then it’s a sheet of ice underneath. I don’t care who you are, try driving on ice.

[The Swamp]

To add to my post above, the low 40s in the SW Interior/Olympia area seem odd. Temps jump from freezing at 10AM to low 40s at 1PM and then back down to near freezing by 4PM.

 

Might be a case of too quick to scour out the cold air. Seems awfully fast to rise 10 degrees and then fall 10 degrees just off some light southerly flow.

These sliders down the coast can be hard to predict. Personally, I think this one looks stronger than the last which makes me believe the sw push of air may moderate the south sound providing rain before switching back over as it sags south. Just have to stay tuned.

[High Desert Mat?]

Marks new blog post. He isn’t convinced yet in short.

[Cloud]

Very true!

 

Just the word "snow" causes panic.

The media goes into a frenzy over lumpy rain as they watch the streetlights.

[MossMan]

My drive home this evening. The county did sand the road today!

 

Currently 24 after a high of 33.2

[Jbolin]

Variability and volatility are evil players in the snow game around the PNW, with that said, I'll see you bastards on Monday

 

[bainbridgekid]

I am a met the same way my mom is a doctor after years of diagnosing my dad over webmd.

 

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2019/02/06/38682064/up-to-30-inches-of-snow-expected-according-to-man-i-talked-to-on-twitter

I love that you are literally the "man I talked to on Twitter"

[Requiem]

Mark doesn’t seem convinced YET, but then again this setup is a bit more marginal than up in Puget Sound.

[Deweydog]

I love that you are literally the "man I talked to on Twitter"

It’s going to snow like covfefe this weekend.

[Guest Sounder]

I am a met the same way my mom is a doctor after years of diagnosing my dad over webmd.

 

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2019/02/06/38682064/up-to-30-inches-of-snow-expected-according-to-man-i-talked-to-on-twitter

I started reading some reddit comments about this storm after you mentioned you posted there and almost went insane. I don't know how you do it. So many unbelievably confident know it alls saying it's not going to snow at all and that "some models say it's going to be 50 and sunny!!" I'd love to know what models those are.

[Deweydog]

Mark doesn’t seem convinced YET, but then again this setup is a bit more marginal than up in Puget Sound.

For your consideration... we won’t know for sure tonight. Tomorrow doesn’t look good either.

[Deweydog]

Chilly in Pendleton.

[Requiem]

For your consideration... we won’t know for sure tonight. Tomorrow doesn’t look good either.

Granted tomorrow was barely supposed to be anything. I really do want Saturday to pan out, and especially Monday-Tuesday. If GFS were on board I would be a lot more excited.

[SeanNyberg]

I really hope the 00z runs bring some clarity and we can get some watches out of the NWS!

[epiceast]

The most conservative case that I see for both offices conservative forecasts to verify without it being some made up outlier like  low track being off by 100 or more miles is this:

Low tracks further south, faster and slightly weaker, dumping the foot + bulls around chehalis + castle rock area, starts off as rain in PDX, switches over to snow in the evening when the low hits the shore around Columbia mouth, and snow comes during the day on Friday in Seattle so it can't run up the 1:15 or 1:20 ratios out of half an inch of water for a huge snowfall. This way both metros score under 6" for 90% of observers.

[Olyman]

To add to my post above, the low 40s in the SW Interior/Olympia area seem odd. Temps jump from freezing at 10AM to low 40s at 1PM and then back down to near freezing by 4PM.

 

Might be a case of too quick to scour out the cold air. Seems awfully fast to rise 10 degrees and then fall 10 degrees just off some light southerly flow.

I hope you're right!!

[Guest Sounder]

Granted tomorrow was barely supposed to be anything. I really do want Saturday to pan out, and especially Monday-Tuesday. If GFS were on board I would be a lot more excited.

If you're expecting an event tomorrow, you're going to be awfully disappointed. Nothing ever showed snow for tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

Granted tomorrow was barely supposed to be anything. I really do want Saturday to pan out, and especially Monday-Tuesday. If GFS were on board I would be a lot more excited.

It’s not going to snow tomorrow.

[Esquimalt]

00Z NAM starts the snow much later--more in line with the euro.

[Winterdog]

Clear and 25f.  Had a high of 30F after a low of 9F.  That 9F is the lowest February temperature I've recorded here in 26 years.