February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[SouthHillFrosty]

There will not be a hole like that... the ECMWF did not show that.    

Good cause i would be pissed to miss out on this event since we only got 4 inches from the past event.

[MossMan]

Temp is stuck at 22.2. Couple degrees warmer than last night at this time.

[TT-SEA]

Does the model think it is warm there or a model glitch...I've seen it multiple times over the years...

I just think it overestimates outflow. It must assume SE outflow at that time. It will be wrong.

[Requiem]

Yeah that one set an extremely high bar. Nearly 20" in about 7 hours at my house. Doubt I'll ever see that again even here in Bozeman.

 

I really do hope to see something like that again, but the next few weeks I'm just shooting for a few inches. 

[FrozenBites]

I just think it overestimates outflow. It must assume SE outflow at that time. It will be wrong.

Seems like a good conclusion. I've never seen it on the European though. Possibly a resolution issue to perhaps?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Really not impressed by the FV3. It went from showing over a foot here to nothing in a few runs

 

Could happen, but the more consistent models have been showing something significant in the 6-8" range. I'm not sure how the FV3 does in short range forecasting, it's not a mesoscale model, I figured it was more of a mid-long range model.

 

 

FV3 represents weather through points in connected grid cells, so it can resolve weather that comes in irregular shapes. The current GFS represents all weather as waves. It’s been successful in large-scale modelling, but weather phenomena do not always follow wave patterns on the local level

[GHweatherChris]

Fri/Sat is now a wait and see period...

[Esquimalt]

Could happen, but the more consistent models have been showing something significant in the 6-8" range. I'm not sure how the FV3 does in short range forecasting, it's not a mesoscale model, I figured it was more of a mid-long range model.

Just concerns me, considering the euro is also saying minimal amounts up here. But we have seen the WRF be correct before

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just got into Chesaw. Chilly minus 5.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the FV3 shows snow for the Seattle area on Monday evening. Hard to tell how much since only the radar simulation has updated.

 

 

 

Here is Tuesday morning...

 

 

 

That looks like a transition event.

[MossMan]

[Requiem]

WRF and FV3 look a lot better for PDX, I think the GFS is probably underplaying the easterly winds. I think as long as the EURO doesn't waver we could get a few inches down here.

[Phil]

Looks like the FV3 shows snow for the Seattle area on Monday evening. Hard to tell how much since only the radar simulation has updated.

 

 

 

Here is Tuesday morning...

 

 

 

That looks like a transition event.

Maybe zoom in? Tropical tidbits has a regional page.

 

I don’t know how you can see that.

[Requiem]

Maybe zoom in? Tropical tidbits has a regional page.

 

I don't think FV-3 has that feature.

[TT-SEA]

The Monday/Tuesday system comes down to phasing of two different troughs. It's not a single system moving through that you can easily track. That is why it seemed to form out of thin air on the ECMWF on Monday.

 

It's could be an all or nothing situation.

 

I trust the ECMWF more in a delicate situation like this... but there is a higher bust potential than usual.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Just concerns me, considering the euro is also saying minimal amounts up here. But we have seen the WRF be correct before

 

Well the WRF seems to be hinting at the greatest snowfalls being on east facing slopes. I can kind of see where it would be getting it with the low slowly pulling offshore. The bands of moisture will follow. This is what you want to see (widespread 8"+ to the NW and SE), gives more room for things to shift around. Just don't get too excited, 48 hours is like an eternity in snow forecasting.

 

[Phil]

I don't think FV-3 has that feature.

Ah you’re right, my mistake. Just an eastern US one.

 

#EastCoastBias

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really don't like where the FV-3 has been going the past few runs. 

[joaqweri]

im trying to not focus on the mon-tue storm until after the weekend storm moves out

[Deweydog]

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines.

[Perturbed Member]

WRF is nice

 

[Phil]

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines.

Is this a serious post, or some type of allusory punchline?

[Deweydog]

WOW

 

The second to last paragraph is all one sentence.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensemble maybe coldest yet start to finish.

[jakeinthevalley]

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines.

Cool, I already stopped sniffing glue.

[Andrew.]

[ShawniganLake]

Really not impressed by the FV3. It went from showing over a foot here to nothing in a few runs

I wouldn’t worry about it. It’ll be wrong. Ukmet looks good. Also shows the second system being quiet juicy next week. All other guidance looks good for at least 4”+

[Requiem]

Natalia Poklonskaya Behind Microphones 06022019213049.jpg

 

Accurate.

[Deweydog]

Is this a serious post, or some type of allusory punchline?

Correct.

[Jesse]

GFS ensemble maybe coldest yet start to finish.

Care to post? My link is broken once again.

[Jesse]

Natalia Poklonskaya Behind Microphones 06022019213049.jpg

 

I love your memes.

[El_Nina]

Natalia Poklonskaya Behind Microphones 06022019213049.jpg

Tim has destroyed GFS's career single handedly.

[James Jones]

Care to post? My link is broken once again.

 

Not updated quite yet but this is what I've been using:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=135728&model=gfs&var=201&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=

[FroYoBro]

Down to 27 here. Running colder than last night.

[TT-SEA]

The Monday/Tuesday system is going to be very difficult to predict.   

 

Much harder than the Friday/Saturday system which is a single storm coming through.

 

If the phasing does not happen on Monday... there could be nothing at all.   If it phases perfectly like the 12Z ECMWF showed then there could be a massive snowstorm.   It literally formed out of nothing right over western WA on Monday on the 12Z ECMWF run.   No other model has shown that perfect balance.    But its also the ECMWF so it carries more weight and might end up leading the way and the other models will catch up.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I wouldn’t worry about it. It’ll be wrong. Ukmet looks good. Also shows the second system being quiet juicy next week. All other guidance looks good for at least 4”+

 

And then there's the GFS ensembles, the average works out to about 8.7", similar to what the WRF shows:

 

[Andrew.]

I love your memes.

Haha thanks

[Jesse]

Not updated quite yet but this is what I've been using:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=135728&model=gfs&var=201&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=

Thank you. Looking good.

[Deweydog]

One historic event at a time...

[seattleweatherguy]

The Monday/Tuesday system is going to be very difficult to predict.

 

Much harder than the Friday/Saturday system which is a single storm coming through.

 

If the phasing does not happen on Monday... there could be nothing at all. If it phases perfectly like the 12Z ECMWF showed then there could be a massive snowstorm. It literally formed out of nothing right over western WA on Monday on the 12Z ECMWF run. No other model has shown that perfect balance. But its also the ECMWF so it carries more weight and might end up leading the way and the other models will catch up.

No phasing would be dry cold?