February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Icon always gives false hope

And the mighty Euro didn't?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow pack building NW flow in the long range. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

When you read though this forum it gives the false impression that nothing at all will happen. Not the case at all.

[TT-SEA]

And the mighty Euro didn't?

 

Unfortunately it did this time. 

[MossMan]

When you read though this forum it gives the false impression that nothing at all will happen. Not the case at all.

Exactly. 40-45 degree temps and zero snow due to the infamous “westward trend” is what I am taking from the thread. That’s why I would like to see Seattle temp maps but I haven’t had a chance to look yet.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

When you read though this forum it gives the false impression that nothing at all will happen. Not the case at all.

This.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Exactly. 40-45 degree temps and zero snow due to the infamous “westward trend” is what I am taking from the thread. That’s why I would like to see Seattle temp maps but I haven’t had a chance to look yet.

There is a real chance of some decent snow for many places. I'm good with that chance. By far the best set up all winter. And we all know these patterns never play nice with the models even 12hrs out. I've been through a few in the 45 years here.

[luvssnow_spokane]

There is a real chance of some decent snow for many places. I'm good with that chance. By far the best set up all winter. And we all know these patterns never play nice with the models even 12hrs out. I've been through a few in the 45 years here.

True!  But honestly this looks to be pretty marginal for a lot of us, but that does not deny that we will not see some snow but overall super borderline/marginal and I would not be surprised if it is a bust for some if not a lot. I am excited for the potential, but am concerned too. A few flakes will be fun if anything, but not what I hoped for!

[Requiem]

True!  But honestly this looks to be pretty marginal for a lot of us, but that does not deny that we will not see some snow but overall super borderline/marginal and I would not be surprised if it is a bust for some if not a lot. I am excited for the potential, but am concerned too. A few flakes will be fun if anything, but not what I hoped for!

Concerned even that won’t happen. Probably just me being silly though.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the WRF through Monday evening... amounts might be wrong but the low trajectory keeps the Seattle area dry with offshore flow and that is what the ECMWF is showing now as well.   

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Total snow per the WRF through Monday evening... amounts might be wrong but the low trajectory keeps the Seattle area dry with offshore flow and that is what the ECMWF is showing now as well.   

 

 

Wow at least my area isn't totally hosed like yours.

[Geos]

The WRF continues to be aggressive in filling northern areas with cold low level air as early as Saturday. Any precipitation on Sunday should be of the frozen variety if that's the case. The GFS seems to be doing some catchup on this:

 

 

 

Thank you for posting. It will be fun to track the arctic front at least. Just need to get that low to cut in somewhere instead of heading to northern California.

 

Just moved a bunch of posts from this morning over here...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On the 9th the 12z ensembles are about 1.5C colder than the 06z run.

[TT-SEA]

Wow at least my area isn't totally hosed like yours.

 

 

Even Snoqualmie Pass gets shafted!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even Snoqualmie Pass gets shafted!  

 

Yeah above 1000' or so this is going to be more about if there is any moisture or not.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah above 1000' or so this is going to be more about if there is any moisture or not.

 

You should at get some flakes in the air at the very least I would hope.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You should at get some flakes in the air at the very least I would hope.

 

Yeah, but the historical average for snow is around 30-40" a year. I am still 3.1" below my record low seasonal total. 

[FroYoBro]

Total snow per the WRF through Monday evening... amounts might be wrong but the low trajectory keeps the Seattle area dry with offshore flow and that is what the ECMWF is showing now as well.   

 

 

 

 

The image isn't showing up for me.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Concerned even that won’t happen. Probably just me being silly though.

SADLy you could be right. I am just hopeful but also doubtful as I have seen this type of setup bust more than succeed for us up here. But we have a chance, even if it FEELS like it is slipping away gradually. 

[TT-SEA]

The image isn't showing up for me.

 

 

Odd.    

 

How about this...

 

[FroYoBro]

Odd.    

 

How about this...

 

 

Yep, that works. Time to take a trip to the northern Oregon coast range!

[El_Nina]

Oregon coast range shadow

[TT-SEA]

Yep, that works. Time to take a trip to the northern Oregon coast range!

 

 

Or take a boat out into the ocean.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the 12z ensembles are going to end up below average from the 3rd through the end of the run.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Well looks like the 06z east movement was just a fluke..

 

Darn. At least there's some more potential later in the week, for now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 shows the cool/cold shot late in the week too.

[Jesse]

Or take a boat out into the ocean.

February 1-5. Don’t even worry about what the models show. It’s gonna happen. Snow for everyone.

[TT-SEA]

February 1-5. Don’t even worry about what the models show. It’s gonna happen. Snow for everyone.

 

 

I saw the potential! 

 

Fine details screwed it up.   Lots of people will see snow though.   

[Jesse]

I saw the potential!

 

Fine details screwed it up. Lots of people will see snow though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Or take a boat out into the ocean.

All aboard Mossman's boat in search of snow!

[Perturbed Member]

WRF continues to show cold east winds into PDX Monday with a low sitting just offshore and moving south. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Goodness the ensembles are consistently cool.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

WRF continues to show cold east winds into PDX Monday with a low sitting just offshore and moving south. 

 

WRF outstanding again! back to back runs. If I had to make a forecast based on WRF and 4km Soundings 8 PM Sunday, Rain to slowly change to a mix then wet snow PDX metro and all snow Multnomah Falls westward progressing into Troutdale, Gresham east of I-205. That's assuming the WRF is handling the cold air progression correctly.

[El_Nina]

WRF continues to show cold east winds into PDX Monday with a low sitting just offshore and moving south. 

 

I'm gonna reiterate that the east winds must not be ignored. Models are a** at dealing with it and i wouldn't be surprised if this turns into a surprise snowstorm for the Portland area because of it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Going to be a pretty cold outflow monday in Bellingham.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 1

 

[MossMan]

Goodness the ensembles are consistently cool.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

That does look lovely!

[Gradient Keeper]

Compared to 12z yesterday. Arctic trough a notch south and cut-off low near northern California 3 notches southwest. Block amplitude a notch stronger and axis 2 notches west.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Final January Stats

 

Avg Max: 45.2 (+1.2)

Avg Min:  32.2 (+1.2)

Precip: 5.70" (-4.93")

Snow: 0.3"

Freezing lows: 18

[Frontal Snowsquall]

WRF continues to show cold east winds into PDX Monday with a low sitting just offshore and moving south.

 

Now just need moisture. Hopefully a deformation band will form.