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Kicking off a new thread to track, discuss, speculate, and share observations of the extended period of cold and multiple snow events forecasted for the remainder of the month.

 

Please keep banter, depressed, "Debbie Downer", and really anything that does not contribute to the discussion at hand to the banter thread. Please feel free to ask questions, feel excited, and share anything you find that might help us gain insight into the kinds of weather we will see over the next few weeks.

 

As I and others have noted in the recent past, there almost always seems to be an 18 hour window near the event where models seems to lose what looked like a solid solution, only to have it return. It isn't a guarantee that we will see significant cold and snow next week, but just because we lose it tonight doesn't mean it cannot come back with tomorrow evenings runs. My experience with being an East Coast weather weenie, I wouldn't really trust the ICON for low placement, the Euro handles precip weirdly when going from warm to cold, and the GFS doesn't get low level temps right this far out. I would sit back and relax, and enjoy the ride. Even if we lose the Euro tonight for anything past this weekend, until we have had successive runs and the EPS supports the break in the trend, I am not going to sweat it.

 

Respect the professional mets that are lurking here, posting on Twitter, doing your local news cast, or writing up the AFD. Its not like these guys are a******* who want to see you shake in your weenie boots because their call is "too conservative". This is hard and it would be great if we had them on here discussing their methodology. I'm sure no one wants to hold those discussions when some jabroni is calling them a fraud for not getting the WWA out several hours sooner.

 

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OK, this is pretty funny.   "Nothing left alive except for small burrowing mammals which will eventually evolve and repopulate the region."

I have never seen it snow like this!  Coming down so hard while swirling and blowing sideways.  It looks like diamond dust the way it sparkles in the yard light. This is the best event I've ever seen

Some sunshine breaking through now. Looking like precip is over for the most part, at least for the morning.       

Posted Images

Hope this is one to remember! This is my first significant event as a forum member, so yay!

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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After today, PDX is running at 37.8F for the month to date, which would make this their third coldest February on record (behind 1989’s 36 and 1956’s 35.8) if the month ended today.

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Would like to add to the first post that snow maps aren't what you will actually see as some of them make assumptions especially in marginal cases with potential planetary boundary layer warmth issues. They can under or overestimate when they are confined to the constraints such as a particular snow ratio. The best approach is always to start with the top-down skew-T to get a feel for the atmosphere, look at the qpf, look into the dynamics in play to determine snowfall accumulation. 

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Think about how quickly we could fill up this thread if we simply listed the number of our post and nothing else!  ;)

 

Anyways, 34.4F/15.3F day here. A little more optimistic about snow chances up here with the WRF still looking solid and a slight northward trend to the precip in the Euro for the upcoming storm.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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8940 posts for the December 08 events, spread over three threads and five weeks.

Pretty surprised we’re even within striking distance already. If the modeled storms for the next week even halfway verify we would probably sail past 10,000 with ease.

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I think Cliff Mass is gonna do quite alright with his all in/hyped forecast for this weekend. Seattle looks like a lock for another strong event. 

 

Definitely. I have a feeling we could do okay too, especially higher up and towards the Gorge.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Pretty surprised we’re even within striking distance already. If the modeled storms for the next week even halfway verify we would probably sail past 10,000 with ease.

 

Without a doubt. We're averaging more than a thousand posts a day. Combined we might hit 10,000 before the weekend.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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Would like to add to the first post that snow maps aren't what you will actually see as some of them make assumptions especially in marginal cases with potential planetary boundary layer warmth issues. They can under or overestimate when they are confined to the constraints such as a particular snow ratio. The best approach is always to start with the top-down skew-T to get a feel for the atmosphere, look at the qpf, look into the dynamics in play to determine snowfall accumulation. 

 

That goes back to the win/lose with kuch ratios. If the skews look "normal" and match what you would expect as the modeled ratio, then it works.

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Definitely. I have a feeling we could do okay too, especially higher up and towards the Gorge.

Keep in mind, the gorge isn’t a huge factor with the weekend storm. If we do see meaningful accumulations out of that it will be more dependent on precip rates, keeping the southerly component suppressed prior to offshore flow kicking in.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Keep in mind, the gorge isn’t a huge factor with the weekend storm. If we do see meaningful accumulations out of that it will be more dependent on precip rates, keeping the southerly component suppressed prior to offshore flow kicking in.

 

Still, even just a bit of easterly flow can really suppress the southerly flow.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Last February I had snow on the ground for 10 consecutive days...I think this February will beat that number!

 

Our third February in a row to feature some good weather.  I like how we are finally losing the front loaded look to our winters.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just for this event - repeated weenie posts will result in mod preview. These posts can be best defined as those posts that always lament the lack of snow in their area on one run, down playing modeled events at all costs, and just generally being a weight on the discussion. If you feel like you just need to let your inner moody child out, please do so in the banter thread.

 

- The Management

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Our third February in a row to feature some good weather.  I like how we are finally losing the front loaded look to our winters.

 

Excuse me for my ignorance- but what exactly does the term "front-loaded" mean? I've heard it used a lot.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Still, even just a bit of easterly flow can really suppress the southerly flow.

There’s gonna be southerly flow ahead of this thing and it will inhibit things to some level. The magnitude is what’s up in the air. The column will be very close to going isothermal, but it’s a touchy setup while we have to best precip rates going. The gorge is actually not a factor at all.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Still, even just a bit of easterly flow can really suppress the southerly flow.

 

It sure can.  It would be more proper to say even a bit of an easterly component to the surface pressure gradient can suppress southerly winds.  I get the same effect here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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There’s gonna be southerly flow ahead of this thing and it will inhibit things to some level. The magnitude is what’s Up in the air. The column will be very close to going isothermal, but it’s a touchy setup while we have to best precip rates going. The gorge is actually not a factor at all.

 

Oh, I have no idea why Mark has been mentioning it quite a bit in relation to Saturday's event.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Excuse me for my ignorance- but what exactly does the term "front-loaded" mean? I've heard it used a lot.

It means winters that had most of the cold and snow occur in the first half of the season compared to the last half.

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Excuse me for my ignorance- but what exactly does the term "front-loaded" mean? I've heard it used a lot.

 

The past 30 years have featured many winters where the best action came in November or December.  I'm convinced that is largely responsible for our horrible Januaries since 1980.  I think January will be making a comeback soon.  If February is capable of this January has to be.  We have actually had a number decent Februaries in recent years.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I teach 3rd grade and showed my class some simple model analysis today.

 

They were excited you could "see the future" and oohed and aahed when they saw blue getting closer to us and went crazy when the dark blue was over our area. We're gonna check them again tomorrow to compare and make a forecast for Friday.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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I teach 3rd grade and showed my class some simple model analysis today.

 

They were excited you could "see the future" and oohed and aahed when they saw dark blue over our area. We're gonna check them again tomorrow to compare and make a forecast for Friday.

 

Kinda wish I was in your class TBH

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Down to 22 degrees.  Another beautiful, snow covered, starry night!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I teach 3rd grade and showed my class some simple model analysis today.

 

They were excited you could "see the future" and oohed and aahed when they saw blue getting closer to us and went crazy when the dark blue was over our area. We're gonna check them again tomorrow to compare and make a forecast for Friday.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png

 

Awesome.  What a great time to teach them about weather.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Oh, I have no idea why Mark has been mentioning it quite a bit in relation to Saturday's event.

We transition to offshore flow later on Saturday but moisture is becoming an issue at that point.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Awesome.  What a great time to teach them about weather.

We've been looking at the radar before recess on rainy days all year, but this definitely took it to another level.

 

It was a lot of fun.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Our third February in a row to feature some good weather. I like how we are finally losing the front loaded look to our winters.

The past 30 years have featured many winters where the best action came in November or December. I'm convinced that is largely responsible for our horrible Januaries since 1980. I think January will be making a comeback soon. If February is capable of this January has to be. We have actually had a number decent Februaries in recent years.

I've grown to like late season cold weather. It seems there's always a higher probability that moisture will be associated with them compared to November or December events. I know you've also mentioned that February Arctic Blast are less likely to be dry compared to other months.

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Guest Sounder

Just for this event - repeated weenie posts will result in mod preview. These posts can be best defined as those posts that always lament the lack of snow in their area on one run, down playing modeled events at all costs, and just generally being a weight on the discussion. If you feel like you just need to let your inner moody child out, please do so in the banter thread.

 

- The Management

Can we add "posting serious comments about weather.com & weather app forecasts" to list of offenses?

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Our third February in a row to feature some good weather. I like how we are finally losing the front loaded look to our winters.

I actually prefer it because once we break out of it, it’s less gloomy. I mean the last couple days with snow covered ground with a little more sunlight is gorgeous.

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Whatever happened to Andy in Woodinville? He still around?

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I actually prefer it because once we break out of it, it’s less gloomy. I mean the last couple days with snow covered ground with a little more sunlight is gorgeous.

Agreed. I'll happily trade the slight handicap from the sun angle for the extra hour of daylight to enjoy the snow in.

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Anyone pulling the night shift?

 

You know it!!!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Wish I could pull the night shift but I have school tomorrow. Good night everyone.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I mean, I guess it's ok. Kinda "meh" if you ask me.

 

Something the underside of a planet might look like.

I love that horseshoe pattern. It helps keep the cold air in place over us. I think we're good to go for at least the next 2 weeks.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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There’s gonna be southerly flow ahead of this thing and it will inhibit things to some level. The magnitude is what’s up in the air. The column will be very close to going isothermal, but it’s a touchy setup while we have to best precip rates going. The gorge is actually not a factor at all.

 

The gorge will still be a factor at some point even while the low is still well north of us, we will have an easterly component to the southerly flow. 

 

1 AM Saturday

 

slp.57.0000.gif

 

 

 

SE flow and approximately isothermal

kpdx.57.0000.snd.gif

 

 

With the low still north of us but getting closer the flow is increasingly going easterly and the temps plummet into the 20s. 

 

kpdx.60.0000.snd.gif

 

 

This is shown on several other models including the FV3 and euro (that has sticking snow Friday night). On these models the window of time where we have a warming southerly flow and precip seems fairly limited. The gorge enters the picture pretty quickly. 

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