February 2019 Snow Event - Part 2

[MR.SNOWMIZER 5655]

Lot's of disagreement for sure beyond Sunday. Keep in mind that even if the monday storm is focused on Oregon the snow will most likely be further north than shown. Like last weekend.

[iFred 4653]

I know a couple people from Sandpoint are on, please feel free to chime in with your thoughts, observations, and methodologies. Anyone here giving them will be banned.

[Requiem 2220]

I know a couple people from Sandpoint are on, please feel free to chime in with your thoughts, observations, and methodologies. Anyone here giving them s**t will be banned.

Apologies, what’s Sandpoint?

[iFred 4653]

Reminds me of that thing floating around Facebook that says it's going to snow 0-50 inches.

 

I take it you're a glass-half-full kind of guy.

[kokaneekidz 345]

Sandpoint is the office of NWS SEattle office location on the west side of lake washington just east of UW and Children's Hospital so to speak

Apologies, what’s Sandpoint?

[Cloud 1023]

Apologies, what’s Sandpoint?

Sandpoint is a neighborhood in Seattle.

 

Edit: And yes, this is where the NWS Seattle office is.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

EURO spitting out a high of 25 and 29 and PDX and SLE respectively next Tuesday.

[Westy 9]

Weather-weenies are out in full-force right now (me included). 

 

It's hard to look at maps that show 8-12 inches, then 4-6, then possibly lower again but part of model riding at it's best.

 

I think if greater Seattle received 6" with this Friday/Saturday storm, we'd all be very pleased.

 

Seeing Jim Forman in the orange parka, would be icing on top..

[TT-SEA 1764]

EURO spitting out a high of 25 and 29 and PDX and SLE respectively next Tuesday.

The cold trend on the ECMWF is crazy and very clear.

[hoffeintz 1]

The NWS has back way off on the expected snowfall in the south end on noaa.gov for Graham where I live.  2-4 inches total.

 

Sad

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2731]

I know a couple people from Sandpoint are on, please feel free to chime in with your thoughts, observations, and methodologies. Anyone here giving them s**t will be banned.

Do you know if any of the pro mets from NWS Spokane (or Portland or Pendleton) are ever on here?

[TT-SEA 1764]

Melting going on in North Bend right now... warmer day for sure.

 

[Eugene Snow 50]

Did anyone post a total euro snow map for entire run?

[iFred 4653]

If anyone can provide some 12z euro insight for Wednesday on through next week, that would be appreciated.

[Requiem 2220]

No no no no no. Believe last time he was here, it turned into a bust. 

He was here for 10/15/16, right? That was a bust I certainly did not care to see.

[iFred 4653]

Moving some posts to banter. Logs are telling me we had 2000 people this morning checking out runs.

[TT-SEA 1764]

If anyone can provide some 12z euro insight for Wednesday on through next week, that would be appreciated.

Can't post maps now... but it shows a little more snow for Oregon and not much up here... that is for days 7-10.

[SeanNyberg 107]

Man - the timing of this thing could REALLY disrupt the work and school commute.  This might be the real story for the next 24 hours - watching the timing!

[Shawn 53]

At least I have a primed base to begin this new event!

Micro ice age continues to grow...day 4

 

Love that Fountain.  Looks like it would be fun to build.

[TT-SEA 1764]

Got my McCafe coffee and back home.

[North_County 242]

I apologize for being kind of on edge. I promise I’m not trying to mock anyone for lesser snow totals, but just projecting my own insecurities about being trigger-happy in regards to the models. I’m sorry that certain areas are getting screwed out of snow, and I should definitely work on getting worked up about things I can’t even control (because weather is hardly the only thing I agonize about that I have no say in whatsoever).

There's always going to be winter weather winners and losers in such a large geographic area with so much topographic and micro-climate variation. In ten years, I will fondly recall January and February 2017 among the great recent events, while for large swaths of the Puget Sound region those periods were just...meh. I have a feeling February 2019 will be the exact opposite. C'est la vie.

[TT-SEA 1764]

Total snow for the 7-10 day period...

 

[..... 862]

The NWS has back way off on the expected snowfall in the south end on noaa.gov for Graham where I live. 2-4 inches total.

 

Sad

When it’s all said and done we might only end up with a trace.

[TT-SEA 1764]

Total snow for the 12Z ECMWF run.  

 

95% of the snow in the Seattle area comes in a single 18-hour period starting tomorrow afternoon at 4 p.m.

 

The snow from Portland southward comes in so many events that I lost count.

 

[iFred 4653]

Total snow for the 12Z ECMWF run.  

 

95% of the snow in the Seattle area comes in a single 18-hour period starting tomorrow afternoon at 4 p.m.

 

The snow from Portland southward comes in so many events that I lost count.

 

 

Thanks! I guest speaking for anyone north of Chehalis, plenty of time for the details to change.

[Eugene Snow 50]

Total snow for the 12Z ECMWF run.  

 

95% of the snow in the Seattle area comes in a single 18-hour period starting tomorrow afternoon at 4 p.m.

 

The snow from Portland southward comes in so many events that I lost count.

 

 

Thank you!!  Very much appreciated.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Okay. Here is the guidance from the EURO for tomorrow- next week. I looked at SLE, EUG, PDX, and SEA. A lot of these are midnight or early morning highs and lows at midnight. Going to be a roller coaster for places south of Seattle, but overall incredibly cold. 

Seattle

36/27

30/22

32/16

30/16

34/19

33/18

33/15

38/22

37/20

 

PDX

40/25

33/24

34/22

30/22

25/22

33/23

30/20

34/23

32/21

 

Salem:

41/24

40/29

35/21

34/24

29/24

30/20

35/14

40/25

36/15

 

Eugene
41/29

40/33

39/23

38/32

39/26

33/21

39/20

41/29

33/18

[MR.SNOWMIZER 5655]

Locked and loaded.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5174]

Total snow for the 12Z ECMWF run.  

 

95% of the snow in the Seattle area comes in a single 18-hour period starting tomorrow afternoon at 4 p.m.

 

The snow from Portland southward comes in so many events that I lost count.

 

 

Oh my god...

[TigerWoodsLibido 5174]

Thank you!!  Very much appreciated.

 

Welcome! We need more s valley posters!

[Cloud 1023]

Total snow for the 12Z ECMWF run.  

 

95% of the snow in the Seattle area comes in a single 18-hour period starting tomorrow afternoon at 4 p.m.

 

The snow from Portland southward comes in so many events that I lost count.

 

 

Looks very good for Portland this run. It's going to change again though... the only system with high confidence is the weekend system. 

[TT-SEA 1764]

Okay. Here is the guidance from the EURO for tomorrow- next week. I looked at SLE, EUG, PDX, and SEA. A lot of these are midnight or early morning highs and lows at midnight. Going to be a roller coaster for places south of Seattle, but overall incredibly cold. 

 

Seattle

36/27

30/22

32/16

30/16

34/19

33/18

33/15

38/22

37/20

 

PDX

40/25

33/24

34/22

30/22

25/22

33/23

30/20

34/23

32/21

 

Salem:

41/24

40/29

35/21

34/24

29/24

30/20

35/14

40/25

36/15

 

Eugene

41/29

40/33

39/23

38/32

39/26

33/21

39/20

41/29

33/18

 

 

Easier to post the ECMWF charts rather than type it out.      

 

 

 

[TT-SEA 1764]

It shows 8 straight days below 35 in Portland.

 

Has that ever happened in February???

[Deweydog 13280]

It shows 8 straight days below 35 in Portland.

 

Has that ever happened in February???

Yeah... no.

[iFred 4653]

I still think the low and precip are going to get modeled further north and that some of the precip details by the Euro are being underforcast, this based off of past performance and experience - but also, past performance is not indicative of future performance

 

also, the 15th still looks like it could be a jaw dropper for some

[Cloud 1023]

Easier to post the ECMWF charts rather than type it out.      

 

 

 

Those low temps though for KSEA. The surrounding areas will probably in the single digits as KSEA is typically a little "warmer"

[TT-SEA 1764]

Those low temps though for KSEA. The surrounding areas will probably in the single digits as KSEA is typically a little "warmer"

 

 

Its truly insane.  

[Jginmartini 3280]

Love that Fountain.  Looks like it would be fun to build.

Thanks

Keeping the water running is going to be interesting as the cold air remains in place.

 

Officially 32* now with some very faint high clouds

[TigerWoodsLibido 5174]

Still 29 here. 

[BLI snowman 5822]

It shows 8 straight days below 35 in Portland.

 

Has that ever happened in February???

 

Yes.

 

February 1936 gave us this:

 

2/7: 39/15 (midnight high with daytime high temps in low 20s)

2/8: 32/14

2/9: 30/20

2/10 33/21

2/11: 33/26

2/12: 35/31

2/13: 31/21

2/14: 27/18

2/15: 27/18

2/16: 28/18

2/17: 24/19

2/18: 30/23

2/19: 34/26

2/20: 35/29

 

That month was legendary for a reason.

[TT-SEA 1764]

Yes.

 

February 1936 gave us this:

 

2/7: 39/15 (midnight high with daytime high temps in low 20s)

2/8: 32/14

2/9: 30/20

2/10 33/21

2/11: 33/26

2/12: 35/31

2/13: 31/21

2/14: 27/18

2/15: 27/18

2/16: 28/18

2/17: 24/19

2/18: 30/23

2/19: 34/26

2/20: 35/29

 

That month was legendary for a reason.

Wow... good information.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Easier to post the ECMWF charts rather than type it out.      

 

 

 

 

Forgot about the charts. Thanks.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5174]

Thank you Tim!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

So are we just going to discount Lord GFS for now?

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

EPS day 10

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER 5655]

Fwiw I've never seen a low form of our coast or near Vancouver island and miss Seattle.

[hawkstwelve 5459]

Mr. Owl has been buried for the past few days but he's just peaking his head out now.

 

Poor thing. He doesn't even know what's coming.

[Frontal Snowsquall 2459]

Easier to post the ECMWF charts rather than type it out.

 

 

 

This would be the coldest and possibly snowiest February I've ever experienced if it verified.

[primetime 25]

 

 

The snow from Portland southward comes in so many events that I lost count.

4 separate storms on the Euro for Oregon with the last being late next week

[TT-SEA 1764]

Confusing...