2/11 - 2/13 Major Winter Storm

[indianajohn]

I think you might be right or at least close to it Jaster. I own a restaurant so I usually judge a "monster storm" as one where I have to close the restaurant LOL!!!  usually around the 10"+ range, it's been years since I had to close my restaurant because of a snow storm. 

This winter has been very frustrating, but didn't your location get dbl digits in last Feb's wild week?

[Clinton]

00z GFS looking much stronger at hr90.

[jcwxguy]

Rainer 00z gfs

[Money]

FYI

 

Gem is also much stronger

 

1000 MB L in N IL

[Grizzcoat]

Rainer 00z gfs

initially yes-- but than it occludes and really wraps in cold air.

[GDR]

Looking like a rain fest around these parts

[Grizzcoat]

E.SD special.

[Grizzcoat]

Both events---

[jcwxguy]

FYI

 

Gem is also much stronger

 

1000 MB L in N IL

where is the gem available so early?

[jaster220]

Both events---USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_132.gif

 

Looks like an April map. Is it March yet?

[Grizzcoat]

Not so sure I buy the what the GFS is offering. An occulding storm that strengthens as it stalls between hr 102 and -108. Something about that seems fishy. CMC and GFS very close at HR 96- then they diverge.

[St Paul Storm]

^ nice looking map

[St Paul Storm]

where is the gem available so early?

He’s looking at black and white maps most likely.

[East Dubzz]

Not so sure I buy the what the GFS is offering. An occulding storm that strengthens as it stalls between hr 102 and -108. Something about that seems fishy. CMC and GFS very close at HR 96- then they diverge.

Don’t know if I can but any model right now. None seem to really be consistent at all. I mean, the GFS just basically jumped across the state of Iowa with the SLP between the 18z and 00z run lol.

 

Not saying it won’t verify, because I’ve been thinking it’ll be a cutter that ends up west of here, but I’m just not going to buy into anything but we get a little run to run consistency at least.

[gimmesnow]

Rainer 00z gfs

 

GFS did this all January. At one point it said this ice and sleet was going to be a thunderstorm. FV3 has it all snow. Way too early to be caring if the GFS is calling for snow or rain.

[East Dubzz]

At HR 108, the GFS has a 999mb low right over the DBQ area.

[Grizzcoat]

At HR 108, the GFS has a 999mb low right over the DBQ area.

You mean the CMC. I think.

[Niko]

We still have several days to go w this storm, so lots of changes can be expected. The good thing is that someone will get a good storm outta this, whether is rain, mix and or snow. Wind will also be a factor as well.

[East Dubzz]

You mean the CMC. I think.

I do. Oops!

[Grizzcoat]

ukie with a cutter. Hr 96 L is just N of OK panhandle.(1000MB)  Hr 120 - is near Grand Rapids, Michigan, (996MB)  -- strong for this range of the UKIE.

[james1976]

Any model that shows 6+ for my area always ends up being a 1-3 event. Been that way all winter. Even the Euro sucked bad for this most recent system for my area. Consistently showed 4-6 and then 6-8..............I ended with about an inch of wind driven snow. Every model looks like the DGEX in the 3-4 day range. Id love to score an over performer at some point other than a random little clipper.

Edit: And the FV3 is horrendous. Can someone verify when it actually came close to being correct?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

GFS is really bizarre looking for this system next week over Nebraska lol. Time will tell. It needs to sort the first system out first.

[jcwxguy]

Pretty tight cluster for gefs

[jcwxguy]

Euro slightly north and quicker at hr 96 vs 12z run and last night's 00z

[ToastedRavs]

European waaaaay more juicy than the 12z. Nearly 3/4" qpf for Des Moines

[jcwxguy]

00z euro, still snowing eastern Iowa and Wisconsin at that point on snowfall map

[jcwxguy]

Sunday/Monday map then both events combined

[james1976]

Gosaints crush job. And if i get a foot out of this mess I'll be amazed. Euro has sucked this season IMO. 

[Tom]

00z EPS pretty much hits those places who just got hit with the last storm and targeting IA/S MN/N/C WI...

 

 

[Tom]

06z GEFS...snow mean

 

 

[Tom]

06z FV3...still holding onto the idea of a southerly track...while its nice to look at, I'm not sure I buy it just yet...the main energy spinning across B.C./PAC NW will eventually track onshore 12z Sunday so I still expect to see some adjustments to the track.  My gut tells me this will not be a favorable storm track for N IL.  Hoping I'm wrong, but the only way this could end up being a "share the wealth" is if it ends up being a weaker/occluding low.

 

[Minny_Weather]

Euro is the first model to bring rain into the picture for here. Not good.

[westMJim]

Here is today's NWS GRR take on the system for Tuesday

 

ISSUED AT 327 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2019  
  
-SNOW SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS, BLOWING SNOW INTO THIS AFTERNOON.   
 ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 1 TO 2 INCHES.  
  
-LENGTHY POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE FROM YESTERDAY, RECOVERY IS   
 HAMPERED BY, VERY COLD AIR, GUSTY WINDS, AND SNOW SHOWERS.  
  
-LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, 1 TO 2 INCHES  
 EXPECTED  
  
-ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS  
 TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ICE STORM IS POSSIBLE, THEN GUSTY  
 WINDS MUCH COLDER AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOLLOW WEDNESDAY.  
  

AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS IT WILL LIKELY   
TRACK NEAR OR NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS ON TUESDAY. THAT PUTS US IN A  
SET UP LIKE THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY. THIS TIME THERE WILL BE MORE   
 

WILL BE MORE SNOW THIS TIME. EVEN SO MUCH OF OUR CWA COULD SEE   
FREEZING RAIN ONCE AGAIN. ALSO, ONCE AGAIN COLD AIR WOULD FOLLOW   
WITH AN PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. IT SEEMS THIS SYSTEM HAS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SCHOOL CLOSURES AND OTHER SIMILAR PROBLEMS FOR  
OUR AREA.  

[SE Wisconsin]

I have this sinking feeling that this is going to be another rain/freezing rain maker for most on this forum with very little or only minor accumulations of snow.  Trends unfortunately seem to be pointing in that direction.

[gosaints]

Best chance to pull this south I think would be for the first wave to slow down and strengthen a bit....

 

That and it is still way out there... The goal posts are very wide

[East Dubzz]

Best chance to pull this south I think would be for the first wave to slow down and strengthen a bit....

 

That and it is still way out there... The goal posts are very wide

Shhh... still too soon for Chicago people to be talking about goal posts.

[gosaints]

Shhh... still too soon for Chicago people to be talking about goal posts.

In that case way to wide...

[Tom]

Shhh... still too soon for Chicago people to be talking about goal posts.

#Doink

[East Dubzz]

#Doink

#DoubleDoink

[OmahaSnowFan]