February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

[Snowfreak]

Wow, clouds moving in fast.  Still holding at 32.  Went from blue skies and sun to increasing overcast in about 30 min.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I know this is just a phone app, but actually spot on for what to expect here moving forward.

[Parksvillewx]

Interesting conditions up at Rathtrevor, the clouds are filling in but it looks pretty windy. This isn't the right setup to bring a ton of snow up there but could bring 1-2".

 

http://webcam.beachacresresort.com/webcam/current.jpg

Snowing rather hard right now. Windy too.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I just checked the 1000-850mb thickness values on the NCEP site and the GFS says they stay below 1300 for the Central Sound through the entire event with 1290 much of the time. With low level cold outflow those numbers are good enough for all snow.

I highly doubt that for down here though. It will be mixed precipitation in the swamp without a doubt. We shall see.

[MossMan]

Today’s phrase of the day...trending north!

[Perturbed Member]

The Euro doesn’t show it, so no.

 

Previous 18z and 00z runs did show it in at least western PDX.

[Snowfreak]

Looks like some flurries already coming around the S. side of the Olympics.  South wind has really picked up last hour, just gusted to 18.

[Requiem]

Today’s phrase of the day...trending north!

 

Has anything trended south so close to the event?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Today’s phrase of the day...trending north!

Winter slop for some. Great for those who deserve it and have missed out.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Snowing rather hard right now. Windy too.

 

Just noticed that, the radar has really filled in up that way in the past hour.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Along with the heavy rain the 12z EURO showed for PDX Metro. It looks like Tuesday morning could be a little windy with gust approaching 50mph.

 

[umadbro]

I've seen a whopping 1-2 inches of sloppy snow since last week. This run. Of cold weather has been wonderful!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Has anything trended south so close to the event?

Historically this would be unusual based on more recent years outcomes. Anything is possible but this close the outcomes are likely to be very close to what is modeled, but surprises can happen, just not a high level of that big of surprise. I hope it does surprise us for you though.

[Requiem]

Along with the heavy rain the 12z EURO showed for PDX Metro. It looks like Tuesday morning could be a little windy with gust approaching 50mph.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019021012_48_7779_379.png

 

Any other time I'd be very excited. Now? /:

[luvssnow_spokane]

Still too cold.

. LOL!! Oh yeah sorry. Just staying positive.

[MossMan]

Has anything trended south so close to the event?

Yes.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is running cold today... 32 there while its 34 here and getting quite windy. It's been sunny all day here but clouding up now.

[MossMan]

28.9 with a DP of 21. Also a south wind has picked up.

[snow_wizard]

Snow over the west side of the island:

 

 

And currently north of Parksville:

 

 

 

Parkville looks insane.  Really low vis.

[Front Ranger]

SEA is running cold today... 32 there while its 34 here and getting quite windy. It's been sunny all day here but clouding up now.

 

Everywhere closer to the water has been running cooler today compared to inland.

[Jesse]

The Euro doesn’t show it, so no.

Thanks Fred!

 

Actually, the 12z Euro did show a little snow in this area Tuesday night. Don’t worry it won’t hurt your chances up north.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like some flurries already coming around the S. side of the Olympics.  South wind has really picked up last hour, just gusted to 18.

 

Thankfully this is a case where we can get away with south winds.  The cold is so entrenched right now.

[snow_wizard]

Historically this would be unusual based on more recent years outcomes. Anything is possible but this close the outcomes are likely to be very close to what is modeled, but surprises can happen, just not a high level of that big of surprise. I hope it does surprise us for you though.

 

We do have the FV3 being notably colder.  I'll be interested to see how it verifies.

[Requiem]

FWIW....

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ensemble shows the cold re-tightening its grip next weekend and early next week.  Also some hint of another cold outbreak threat just after day 10.

[TT-SEA]

Getting sort of melty and windy down here in North Bend...

 

[snow maniac]

Just started snowing lightly here.

[snow_wizard]

Looks to me like the ECMWF being wetter on the 12z was the right call with today's system.  The Langley Hill radar shows decent activity over the ocean.  Nice to see precip falling as snow well off the coast.

[MossMan]

My icicles had been dripping for the last few days... no drippage today however!

[BLI snowman]

Certainly an incredible amount of precip between Monday and Wednesday being shown down here. 18z NAM shows 4-5" of precip for the Portland metro, some wet snow potential there on Wednesday, but the mountains are going to get absolutely nuked.

 

[wxmet]

Flakes have begun to fly downtown.

[Parksvillewx]

Parkville looks insane. Really low vis.

Very low vis. Especially up on the inland highway.

[Jbolin]

Southerlies are ramping up here gusting to 13

[snow_wizard]

I just saw how cold the NWS forecast is for Wednesday.  Only low to mid 30s for highs in the Seattle area.  Hope they're right!

[MossMan]

This is pretty funny!

And my own observations when visiting the grocery store yesterday was that emergency supplies were well stocked...however yellow onions and other non organic produce was wiped out..was sort of entertaining!

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/transplant-gives-hilarious-take-on-seattleites-panic-during-snowpocalypse

[Guest Sounder]

FWIW....

 

Certainly nice to see for PDX. FV3 seems to overdo precip amounts, but temperatures and broader patterns it has done well with. I don't think Portland should be counted fully out just yet.

[Requiem]

Certainly nice to see for PDX. FV3 seems to overdo precip amounts, but temperatures and broader patterns it has done well with. I don't think Portland should be counted fully out just yet.

 

This is giving me 2/5/17 vibes. Very juicy front, too much southerly influence. But Portland got really unlucky on that one, places just west scored big. Who knows, at least it's some weather excitement

[Front Ranger]

Certainly nice to see for PDX. FV3 seems to overdo precip amounts, but temperatures and broader patterns it has done well with. I don't think Portland should be counted fully out just yet.

It has the low in the same basic place as other models. I don't trust it for anything related to precip at this point.

[Parksvillewx]

Not to often I can say the temp is 25F @ 1pm in the afternoon with heavy snow and a 25mph wind. Awesome!

[Requiem]

It has the low in the same basic place as other models. I don't trust it for anything related to precip at this point.

 

We can hope!