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February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV


Geos

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really interesting as the birds all of sudden were attacking our bird feeder starting earlier today and I was thinking they were sensing the storm coming in.

I noticed the same thing last Saturday.  There were a lot of birds in my backyard scratching around and looking for food and I was wondering if they could sense that cold and snow was coming.

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Radar is decently juicy for PDX.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Cloudy and 37.  Business as usual.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The aforementioned warm front with the next low will continue
precipitation Monday before a stronger cold front brings a round of
heavy precipitation Monday night through Tuesday morning. Models
indicate that cyclogenesis along this boundary will result in high
rain rates. Snow levels will generally be 2000 feet across SW
Washington to around 3000 feet for Lane County. However, the high
rain rates associated with the front may be strong enough to
dynamically cool the atmosphere down to the valley floor. If this
occurs, the heavy rain event in the Willamette Valley that we have
been expecting may evolve into a heavy snow event wherever this band
of precipitation band sets up. Have lowered the snow levels and added
a chance for snow where the models are currently showing the dynamic
baroclinic zone to develop. The models are not always great at
forecasting where these baroclinic zones will set up so expect
changes to this forecast over the next 24-36 hours.

 

Very interesting.  

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Nice cell/band near Hoodsport will be moving into the Seattle area within an hour or so.

 

Snow really picking up here now with fluffy flakes coming down at a pretty good clip. 

 

I think shadowing from the Olympics will be somewhat of an issue for much of the Seattle/Tacoma area for the next couple hours.

 

Meanwhile, to the north the precip should continue to fill in and intensify. As the low continues to sag south, hopefully that will drag the CZ with it and it will hit the EPSL.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Heaviest snow of the winter so far

 

Happy for you! Snowing lightly here but intensifying.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Guest Sounder

The aforementioned warm front with the next low will continue

precipitation Monday before a stronger cold front brings a round of

heavy precipitation Monday night through Tuesday morning. Models

indicate that cyclogenesis along this boundary will result in high

rain rates. Snow levels will generally be 2000 feet across SW

Washington to around 3000 feet for Lane County. However, the high

rain rates associated with the front may be strong enough to

dynamically cool the atmosphere down to the valley floor. If this

occurs, the heavy rain event in the Willamette Valley that we have

been expecting may evolve into a heavy snow event wherever this band

of precipitation band sets up. Have lowered the snow levels and added

a chance for snow where the models are currently showing the dynamic

baroclinic zone to develop. The models are not always great at

forecasting where these baroclinic zones will set up so expect

changes to this forecast over the next 24-36 hours.

 

Very interesting.  

Portland certainly deserves a good surprise after the last week. Fingers crossed for you!

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Current Version Previous Version: 1 2 3 4 5

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 

FXUS66 KSEW 110006

AFDSEW

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

406 PM PST Sun Feb 10 2019

 

.SYNOPSIS...

Active weather will continue through much of the week as the

longwave pattern assumes little change. The next in a series of

winter systems is affecting the area this afternoon and will

continue through tonight, bringing a quick few inches of new snow

to many. Another stronger system will follow on Monday where

warmer air drawn in from the southwest may result in a mixed bag

of precip for portions of the Sound and lower interior. This

system will linger through Wednesday before another, potentially

warmer, system moves in Thursday and Friday.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Short term remains active with two winter weather systems expected

to affect the area. The first will move across the area quickly

today and tonight. The second will move across the area Monday and

Tuesday.

 

Afternoon water vapor loop reveals a closed area of low pressure

across southern British Columbia and moving southeast. A sfc low

is associated with this disturbance and can be found just to the

south along the southern coastline of Vancouver Island and also

moving southeast. Taking a look at the radar right now-there is a

noticeable difference from this morning. Synoptic scale lift has

successfully created a large area of precipitation that is now

pushing west to east across western Washington. Overall

temperatures are favorable for all snow, except the coast where

temps remain slightly warmer. Hi-res guidance appears to have a

decent handle on the current situation which pulls precip east

rather quickly (compared to the last few storms) through the

remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Snow accumulation is

likely and there is still the potential for a convergence zone to

develop, which would enhance snowfall totals. Overall amounts in

the 1-3" range for most still seem reasonable. Areas in a

convergence zone or where embedded banding develops could see snow

more in the 2-4" inch range. Snow should be generally confined to

the Cascades by Monday morning with some light snow showers

lingering across the lowlands where little to no additional

accumulation is expected.

 

There will be a very brief break in the action Monday morning

before system #2 dives down to the offshore waters of the

Washington Coast from the Aleutian Islands. This system is growing

more complicated with time. This system will undoubtedly pull

much more Pacific moisture into the air than the one today. This

will generate a large swath of precip from the Pacific that is

expected to move north into southern Washington from Oregon

through the morning hours Monday. Analyzing NAM/GFS Bufr soundings

for areas from Olympia south indicate temps cold enough for snow

at onset. Locations of north of this area should be dry and cold.

As the precip moves north later into the morning, there is

indication of warming in the lower levels. The questions posed

earlier in regards to freezing precip still remain: does a warm

nose develop? how much do sfc temps warm as the warm nose

develops? how deep is the warm nose? does the warm nose even

develop or are we left with a brief isothermal layer near 0C as

both sfc and lower levels warm? Not entirely clear yet and

unfortunately might not be until the event starts. At this point,

looks like a weak warm nose develops before sfc temps rise above

freezing. This could transition snow to freezing rain/sleet for a

short period of time going into Monday afternoon from Olympia

south before more of a rain/snow mix or a cold rain takes over

thereafter. Unfortunately, this freezing mix is likely to move

north with the precip towards and maybe into the Seattle metro

Monday afternoon. At this point do not think there will be much

accumulation of ice given small period expected-but that cannot be

guaranteed at this point. How far north this mix travels is also

unclear but could reach northern King County. As the afternoon

progresses and we approach evening, there is question regarding

rain/snow mix vs all rain vs all snow across the Sound. Some of

the new incoming data suggests the potential for more rain or a

rain/snow mix is increasing but models often have a difficult

time handling these types of situations. Given a stronger

southerly push with this, concerned this could pan out. This would

put a dagger through heavy snow totals from perhaps Everett south

if this occurs. Another thing to be concerned about is the

development of a convergence zone where southerlies meet the

colder northerlies. This could lead to very heavy snow totals

somewhere across the north. Another scenario is that cold air

dominates and areas from Seattle north see very heavy snow

accumulation. Right now this forecast leans towards a warmer

solution where Puget Sound sees more of a rain/snow mix with a

brief window of freezing precip from Everett south. However, even

with this outcome, snow accumulation for the lowlands is expected.

 

Moisture tries to pull east Monday night into Tuesday with heavy

snow expected across the Cascades and some lingering rain/snow

across the lowlands. Some additional accumulation is possible

across the lowlands. The upper level trough appears to get "hung

up" across the Pacific all the way into Wednesday where rain/snow

showers look to continue, albeit light and spotty.

 

For the winter weather headlines, winter weather advisory for

tonight`s system remains in effect. Will leave the Winter Storm

Watch for the area Monday-Tuesday alone for now given high

uncertainty in a rain vs snow event. Regardless, it is important

to plan for additional, potentially impactful, snowfall through

the first half of the week.

 

Kovacik

 

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Given such an active short term period, less emphasis was placed

on the long term forecast today. An active pattern will continue,

with another system expected Thursday-Friday, but this looks to

have the potential for more rain vs snow should current trends

continue. A look into the longwave pattern over the next week or

two still suggests a western US trough but perhaps not quite as

deep towards the latter half of the month.

 

Kovacik

 

 

&&

 

.AVIATION...Northwesterly flow aloft will back to west-northwesterly

flow this evening as the next cold upper trough over British

Columbia shifts southward and deepens this evening. Light snow over

the Olympic Peninsula this hour will continue to push east through

the afternoon. Cigs will lower to MVFR/IFR cigs as snow moves into

the Puget Sound area (between 23z and 01z). Some low-level

convergence may lead to a period of moderate snow and visibilities

may drop below 1SM between 02z-05z this evening, mainly along Puget

Sound from KOLM to KPAE. Snow will taper after 08z for most. S-SE

surface winds will continue through majority of tonight for most

before transitioning to northerly winds between 08z-12z. Conditions

will be mainly dry from 10z-17z. The next system will arrive during

the midday hours, with precipitation pushing in south to north

during the afternoon.

 

KSEA...VFR conditions will transition to MVFR cigs between 23z-00z

as snow pushes into the area. Expect deteriorating conditions

through the evening hours as a period of IFR cigs are possible this

evening from 02-05z as moderate snow is expected to push through. 1

to 3 inches of new snow through tonight. Southeast winds will

continue through 10z before transitioning northerly. Gusty winds at

times with gusts up to 25 knots. Next round of precipitation arrives

between 18z-20z Monday morning. JD

 

&&

 

.MARINE...A pair of systems will affect the waters through

Tuesday. The first system will move through the waters tonight

with the second system arriving late Monday into Tuesday. Gusty

Fraser outflow winds will increase Monday night with gales

possible - a Gale Watch is in effect. Visibilities may be reduced

in snow showers through the period.

 

Offshore flow will continue behind the second system on Tuesday and

will continue until another system arrives late in the week. 33

 

&&

 

.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is forecast over the next 7 days.

 

&&

 

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Admiralty

Inlet Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-

Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish

and King Counties-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Everett and

Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-San Juan County-Seattle and

Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Western Skagit

County-Western Whatcom County.

 

Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon

for Admiralty Inlet Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-Bremerton

and Vicinity-Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades

of Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and

Skagit Counties-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Eastern Strait of

Juan de Fuca-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower

Chehalis Valley Area-North Coast-Olympics-San Juan County-

Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Western

Skagit County-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-Western

Whatcom County.

 

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Central

Coast-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Lower Chehalis Valley

Area-North Coast-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca.

 

PZ...Gale Watch from Monday evening through late Monday night for

Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60

Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10

Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10

To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point

Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To

Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point

Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.

Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

 

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Monday for Central U.S.

Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape

Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From

Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From

James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters

From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal

Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-

Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out

10 Nm-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-

West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

 

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for East Entrance

U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

 

Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for

Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

 

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-

Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

 

&&

 

 

 

 

www.weather.gov/seattle

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Portland certainly deserves a good surprise after the last week. Fingers crossed for you!

 

People like Timmy and Andrew stand to do well, it is very reminiscent of early Feb 2017 in terms of precip rates and the placement of the band. Hoping for something exciting! :)

 

EDIT: Clarification- both Andrews. West Hills and Silver Falls.

  • Like 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I think shadowing from the Olympics will be somewhat of an issue for much of the Seattle/Tacoma area for the next couple hours.

 

Meanwhile, to the north the precip should continue to fill in and intensify. As the low continues to sag south, hopefully that will drag the CZ with it and it will hit the EPSL.

I can confirm only lightnsnow and see some broken clouds above

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This has to be the driest south wind snow I've ever seen.  Coming down good with nice sized flakes.  Falling sideways at times.

 

 

SEA had snow with a south wind gusting to 31 mph at 4 p.m.

 

The models were right about strong winds into Seattle this evening.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Definitely noticed the winds picked up as the snow started flying. 0.3" so far.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Insane 3”/hr rates here right now. Just measured 6.5”

 

Wow!  :o

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Ive seen some really good snow forts being built in the area from all this snow. Something I havent seen here before.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Precip has tapered off :(

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Insane 3”/hr rates here right now. Just measured 6.5”

 

 

Nice!  

 

The northward and warmer trend in the models has already helped the northern areas.   This storm was supposed to be going over Portland a few days ago with snow only up to about Olympia.    

 

And its going to continue over the next few days.   Portland is paying a price for your snow though.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You do have access to radars right?

 

Yes. Shows a lot over me but nothing is falling.

 

EDIT: Started lightly snowing again.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Wow, those echoes moving inland off the coast are getting pretty intense. 

 

I think they're associated with some warmer air, though, as Hoquiam is up to 43 and Chris reporting a rain/snow mix now. Will be interesting to see if OLM stays cold enough for snow over the next few hours.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Heaviest precip yet about to move in

 

attachicon.gif2dcb86e0-9dcf-4659-abed-b9c884fb408b.gif

 

Excellent. Temp actually dropped a bit more, dewpoint is now at 29.

  • Like 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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