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February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV


Geos

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3km NAM putting out some ridiculous maps for something that will most likely just be rain for most low elevation areas. West metro does get shafted as is usual protocol this winter.

 

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

Looking like all snow here on north now...

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Updated NWS Seattle snowfall graphic. 4-6" changed to 6-8" for Monroe, and 8-12" changed to 12-18" for North Bend.

 

 

Not sure about other locales - those were just the two I focused on with their previous graphic.

 

700p #SitRep: Here's a look at our best estimate of snowfall between 4PM today and 10am Tuesday. **Note that these totals include some snow that has fallen between 4-7 PM** #wawx #wasnow pic.twitter.com/DVhRGuFlV4— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) February 12, 2019

Victoria went from 6-8 to 8-12. Don’t blame them :)

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NAM also changes precip to snow on Thursday afternoon as the incoming cold trough interacts with a deformation band from the low in California...

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_47.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Guest CulverJosh

NAM also changes precip to snow on Thursday afternoon as the incoming cold trough interacts with a deformation band from the low in California...

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_47.png

 

 

Ya.  I noticed most extended forecasts have thursday night/fri a few degrees colder.  

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Still 29F and absolutely dumping here in Victoria, probably over 8" on the day now after 3" yesterday.

 

A few pictures from today.

 

Snow picking up downtown:

 

NNQSV9r.jpg

 

On the walk home, things started looking more like the rest of the region:

 

RsWibnn.jpg

 

Didn't Victoria have like a 5 year snow drought going?

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Ya.  I noticed most extended forecasts have thursday night/fri a few degrees colder.  

 

It's kind of an interesting set up. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1.36" of precip so far today. DROUGHT BUSTING!

 

9th straight sub-40 high today...Thursday could be a close call in that department...

 .76" for the day so far.  Definitely more moisture on the east side today.  Holding at 41 since about noon. 

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Guest CulverJosh

It's kind of an interesting set up. 

 

 

I'm thinking the lower resolution of that map is making it appear to be in PDX though when in fact it is probably far east counties... . Good for you though.

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Worried about my chances (they are already pretty low) for this one, the south winds are usually quite strong in the higher hills of the Central Metro. Still hope my elevation is an advantage! Either way I get heavy rain- this could be the wettest day I've recorded on my weather station.

Yeah, I'm actually looking forward to the heavy rain for once. I love seeing strong echos on radar. If we could have heavy snow mixed in there it will just be a bonus.

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Rod’s a little cooky. Our “chances” moving forward have nothing to do with east winds. It’s about post-frontal heavy precip with dead gradients and the column working its way to going isothermal.

You're absolutely correct  but if there is an east wind component, it will aid in dropping the temp an additional degree or two in the lower levels and that could make the difference  down on the valley floor.  It's going to be pretty marginal below 500ft or so.  It could make that difference of a degree or two.  I think that's what he's alluding to. 

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Powerful rainband just NW of PDX. 

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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We had a bit over 16" over multiple events in Feb 2017, but the airport (which is 16 miles to the north) has had something like a 5 year drought on 4"+ daily snowfall.

 

Okay, I was going to say I can't imagine there was a 5 year period of no snow.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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And the power is going out all over the place on Bainbridge, including my home. Guess what? Slush is heavier than snow.

 

Slush is harder to drive in too, IMO. I was slipping and sliding all over the road on the way down to work this morning, and I almost didn't make it up my driveway this evening.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Temp up to 35 with gusty SE winds.  Mod. rain with all side roads a slushy mess.  Local grocery store parking already has massive lakes.   This is not going to be a fun couple days...  Time to head east to our cabin in Plain!  Currently 15 degrees with hvy. snow.  East slopes and passes just getting hammered in this setup!  WSU was closed today and likely tomorrow.  Spokane is getting hit as well. 

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You're absolutely correct but if there is an east wind component, it will aid in dropping the temp an additional degree or two in the lower levels and that could make the difference down on the valley floor. It's going to be pretty marginal below 500ft or so. It could make that difference of a degree or two. I think that's what he's alluding to.

Nah. Flow will be onshore at that point. If it isn’t, it means we’re still prefrontal and in an overrunning profile.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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ICON for this weekend could be any of the past two...

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_45.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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