February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z RGEM continues to look good for the south island - Bellingham - Vancouver tomorrow. It hasn't changed much between runs. The GFS seems to be the primary holdout in taking things further north, though it shifted a little in recent runs. Will be interesting to see what the 0z shows.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Radar pic of the snow band setting up across Marion County right now. I believe its being caused by low level convergence associated with the shift to offshore flow. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is he low elevation or on some kind of a hill?

 

Valley floor. Which is about 200' down here. 

[Skagit Weather]

Oh good. Now the snow looks like it will miss to the north...

[Esquimalt]

The 0z RGEM continues to look good for the south island - Bellingham - Vancouver tomorrow. It hasn't changed much between runs.

It almost looks like rain in a portion of town though. What do you think?

[MossMan]

Got the family in the truck and headed to the lake house (Lake Goodwin in Stanwood) to check things out and then a stop at the store on the way back (was a ghost town, perfect time to shop) Our lake house faces the north, there was snow piled up on the sliding glass door! And my boat is still hibernating. Saw some vehicle casualties on the drive to the lake as well.

[Requiem]

Really strong east winds here in the West Hills. Wow.

[El_Nina]

Really strong east winds here in the West Hills. Wow.

At least you get to smell the snow from my house

[MossMan]

Before we could head to the lake I had to borrow the neighbors tractor to make my steep driveway usable again!

Temp dropping rapidly, down to 23.9 already.

[Requiem]

At least you get to smell the snow from my house

 

Still about 2-3 inches on the ground here, but it's all frozen and super icy /:

[Prairiedog]

Why?

 

It looks like it may have shifted the Mon/Tue system south a bit.

At the moment I would agree with Timmy in that that snow amount doesn't seem to fit the narrative being laid out.  There won't be a supply of gorge outflow as I see it.  Temps will be just warm enough for the valley floor to NOT see accumulating snow.  Much like most areas today.  That low would have to track at least to the mouth of the Columbia.  That would be a big shift in the models.  Could happen I suppose.  Even a hint of southerlies will be the kiss of death for areas at the valley floor even just south of the metro, south metro south.  Look what the southerlies did for most areas overnight. 

It could be close to greatness but right now I see it as a lot of cold rain going into Monday below maybe 1K.  These snow maps have been pretty consistent though and has made it very confusing. I'm talking about them being opposed to the GFS mostly.   The Euro snow maps are in opposition to the GFS low staying north.  There may be enough cold air initially Sunday for it to be all snow but without a gorge outflow, I can't see it sustaining all snow going forward.  If the low does indeed shift far enough south, all bets are back on for something good locally.  Without gorge outflow, I can't see snow being sustainable.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It almost looks like rain in a portion of town though. What do you think?

 

Same as before. It's currently 29F here with a 10F dewpoint, the low is forming out of a pocket of very cold upper level air, and this event begins within 24 hours from now. Rain is the least of our concerns, if we get missed tomorrow it will because it tracked too far north or south of us and we missed the heavy narrow band of precip. This is not an atmosphere that produces rain in this area:

 

[Requiem]

At the moment I would agree with Timmy in that that snow amount doesn't seem to fit the narrative being laid out.  There won't be a supply of gorge outflow as I see it.  Temps will be just warm enough for the valley floor to NOT see accumulating snow.  Much like most areas today.  That low would have to track at least to the mouth of the Columbia.  That would be a big shift in the models.  Could happen I suppose.  Even a hint of southerlies will be the kiss of death for areas at the valley floor even just south of the metro, south metro south.  Look what the southerlies did for most areas overnight. 

It could be close to greatness but right now I see it as a lot of cold rain going into Monday below maybe 1K.  These snow maps have been pretty consistent though and has made it very confusing. I'm talking about them being opposed to the GFS mostly.   The Euro snow maps are in opposition to the GFS low staying north.  There may be enough cold air initially Sunday for it to be all snow but without a gorge outflow, I can't see it sustaining all snow going forward.  If the low does indeed shift far enough south, all bets are back on for something good locally.  Without gorge outflow, I can't see snow being sustainable.

 

The gorge outflow is still really strong here, then again, I don't get out much, so....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Light snow falling again this evening on the Southern Oregon coast at Coos Bay. 

 

18z EURO looked good. Very encouraging. Nice to see this snow band go over the valley. Seems to be expanding as it moves north and west. 

 

South wind is completely dead in the valley now and the flow is offshore down to EUG. DP's already into the teens in the PDX metro area. If the winds slack off anywhere tonight there could be some very cold lows.

[Requiem]

Light snow falling again this evening on the Southern Oregon coast at Coos Bay. 

 

18z EURO looked good. Very encouraging. Nice to see this snow band go over the valley. Seems to be expanding as it moves north and west. 

 

South wind is completely dead in the valley now and the flow is offshore down to EUG. DP's already into the teens in the PDX metro area. If the winds slack off anywhere tonight there could be some very cold lows.

 

Is it moving N towards Washington County? I really want them to get some snow.

[Tyler Mode]

Time lapse video starting at 7 PM last night until 7 PM tonight. You can clearly see the initial snow, the melting, some creepy crawlers and then more snow...

 

[Requiem]

Pretty rare to see snow on each day of the 7-day forecast.

 

Even rarer to see a WSW extend over three days.

 

So cool :/

 

No school for like, two weeks. I'd love it.

[epiceast]

Northern areas certainly gain some ground on this one:

 

One thing I don't get is why there is a persistent purple line across the lowlands east of cascades on all of these storms. And this is not Kuchera, this 10:1 ratios! I think this might be a really unprecedent amount of snow for some of these valleys, like surpassing late 1800's for puget sound in terms of rareness.

[Requiem]

Mark just put the final nail in the coffin for PDX. Maybe another time.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z ICON is also on board for a larger event in northern areas tomorrow evening:

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

For those that missed this from the other thread...latest Euro looks a lot more promising for Portland.

 

post-164-0-25610500-1549759021.png

This has the look of a classic warm tongue signature. With the lower snow totals along the Cascade foothills.

[TT-SEA]

So cool :/

 

No school for like, two weeks. I'd love it.

 

 

Until you are in school until the 4th of July.

[Requiem]

This has the look of a classic warm tongue signature. With the lower snow totals along the Cascade foothills.

 

Probably an outlier...

[Requiem]

Until you are in school until the 4th of July.

 

Well, at least they get to experience a ton of snow, so...

[Prairiedog]

The gorge outflow is still really strong here, then again, I don't get out much, so....

I'm talking Sunday night into Monday and the upcoming next low.

[epiceast]

I think another 2" for most of PDX will happen tonight. Deformation band is consolidating north of Portland and goes East all the way to Pendleton Radar technicians. Second lobe of surface low is forming over SE Oregon and will rotate that band with strength over Oregon if it follows the projected path towards Pullman...

[Jesse]

Well, at least they get to experience a ton of snow, so...

Someday you will be an ADULT and not care about such silly, trivial things as snow and weather. Because you will know what REAL PROBLEMS are. I say this as one of the couple dozen grown a** adults who spends an inordinate amount of time on this forum obsessing over snow and other kinds of weather, with zero sense of irony whatsoever.

[Deweydog]

I think another 2" for most of PDX will happen tonight. Deformation band is consolidating north of Portland and goes East all the way to Pendleton Radar technicians. Second lobe of surface low is forming over SE Oregon and will rotate that band with strength over Oregon if it follows the projected path towards Pullman...

Downslope. Air is too dry. No go.

[Requiem]

I think another 2" for most of PDX will happen tonight. Deformation band is consolidating north of Portland and goes East all the way to Pendleton Radar technicians. Second lobe of surface low is forming over SE Oregon and will rotate that band with strength over Oregon if it follows the projected path towards Pullman...

 

Hmmm, I'm intrigued...

[TT-SEA]

Someday you will be an ADULT and not care about such silly, trivial things as snow and weather. Because you will know what REAL PROBLEMS are. I say this as one of the couple dozen grown a** adults who spends an inordinate amount of time on this forum obsessing over snow and other kinds of weather, with zero irony whatsoever.

 

 

Its all fun and games until you are sweating it out in a school with no air conditioning in early July in the middle of another hot summer.   

 

Experiencing lots of snow is fine... but it does start to become seriously disruptive when it goes on and on.   Nothing you can do about it of course.   But it does start to make it more stressful and you look forward to when life can return to normal.   As Matt can tell you from January 2017!  

[Esquimalt]

Same as before. It's currently 29F here with a 10F dewpoint, the low is forming out of a pocket of very cold upper level air, and this event begins within 24 hours from now. Rain is the least of our concerns, if we get missed tomorrow it will because it tracked too far north or south of us and we missed the heavy narrow band of precip. This is not an atmosphere that produces rain in this area:

 

I agree, was just reading what the model said. According to spot wx much of the city only gets 8.5 cm from that one. Looking at the qpf I would expect higher. What are your thoughts?

[Jesse]

Marks latest post is definitely kind of a downer.

[Requiem]

Marks latest post is definitely kind of a downer.

 

Tell me about it. How do we go from "potentially historic" (Mark's own words) to this in a day?

[Jesse]

Tell me about it. How do we go from "potentially historic" (Mark's own words) to this in a day?

A 100 mile change in the track of some lows, caused mostly by Tim.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A 100 mile change in the track of some lows, caused mostly by Tim.

 

At least we'll have lots of negative temp departures!

[Deweydog]

Tell me about it. How do we go from "potentially historic" (Mark's own words) to this in a day?

I’m starting to get the feeling snow setups in the PNW lowlands are precarious. Can anyone else confirm?

[TT-SEA]

A 100 mile change in the track of some lows, caused mostly by Tim.

Sorry about that. I was actually really happy with the ECMWF scenario of few days ago that took all the activity south from Sunday-Wednesday and allowed the possibility of schools being opened up here.

[Deweydog]

Starting to get wonder if PDX even makes it below 30 by midnight. Deeper cold but not colder cold...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I agree, was just reading what the model said. According to spot wx much of the city only gets 8.5 cm from that one. Looking at the qpf I would expect higher. What are your thoughts?

 

The 0z GFS looks mostly on board now, still seems a bit south of the other models but it might not have much of an impact for Victoria. This isn't an easy one to predict, I expect there will be a narrow band capable of producing upwards of 20cm somewhere. The 5-10cm range is probably a safe bet for here, but far from certain.

 

[Timmy]

At least we'll have lots of negative temp departures!

this is one the of most confusing posts of the winter. Jesse loves his departures but he definitely has been more of a snow kick lately. Meanwhile Andrew has be touting departures while 75% of the metro is getting screwed on snow. I’m confused.