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February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV


Geos

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It appears that Mt. Vernon and Burlington are nearly the only schools open today.

 

What a surprise...the GFS actually doesn't look to bad for up here, but I have a strong suspicion it's not correctly modeling the shadowing and we'll get shafted again. Dropped to 24F last night.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Highest amounts they say above 500'. You could be a big winner.

We shall see, this has high bust potential written all over it. Would love to see it happen though. Will be interesting to see what the models hone in on this afternoon. Kind of reminds me of superbowl 2017 when we got rain even at 1500 feet.

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You had an epic event in Feb 2014.  We largely missed out on that.

So did I. I was 15 miles ESE towards the foothills and only got 3".  Happy Valley had close to 15".  Out near Estacada there was only 2-3".  Somewhat localized event overall but it was still noteworthy for sure.   

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12Z GFS is a little farther north with the low tonight and tomorrow morning and also a little more aggressive with the warm air than the 00Z run.

Well that should do it for me. It was a fun stretch while it lasted!

Currently cloudy and 25.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Not sure if someone posted this...but everyone needs to remember no forks until the end of February :)

That was sure premature.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I am scouring the models trying to figure out what might happen out here tonight.   I did notice that the WRF shows more of SE wind out here... as opposed to coming straight from the east.   I think that is a less conducive for pumping in cold air through the pass.    Might not matter if we end up holding onto the cold air in place.

 

ww_wgsfc.18.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wind holding out of the east, flakes are getting bigger.

Glad to hear you have an east wind still.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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WRF shows the Fraser outflow still going strong tomorrow afternoon. Incredible. Whatcom County and Vancouver Island are not going to warm up tomorrow. Different story south of Mt. Vernon though. It even shows a SW wind into Snoqualmie Pass. I also did not realize how close North Bend and Leavenworth are as the crow flies!

 

ww_wgsfc.33.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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From 35 years of paying very close attention to weather in the past when it starts snowing in Hoqium it's a very very good sign.

Cold air will be more stubborn to leave I'm assuming then.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Cold air will be more stubborn to leave I'm assuming then.

 

 

Models always make that mistake.   It will hold longer than the models show.   Question is how much longer?    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This round is over here. Up to 33 with a lot of snow falling/blowing off the trees. Looks like some more moisture incoming, which could fall as wet snow, but I doubt will accumulate much. Next round, if it happens should start to take shape in about 18-24 hours as the heavy precip shield sags south again. That late week trough shown on the GFS is kind of a classic snow maker up here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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 hmmm, looking at radar, seems like cold air is winning right now. moisture turning to snow just inland a bit in the southern washington coast.  Is this expected in a turn to rain scenario?

 

 

Models show cold air even in SW WA this morning.   The warm front is just starting to lift north.   It should turn to rain down there.  The reason there is the possibility of snow in Portland tonight is due to the very heavy precipitation rates expected down there.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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 hmmm, looking at radar, seems like cold air is winning right now. moisture turning to snow just inland a bit in the southern washington coast.  Is this expected in a turn to rain scenario?

 

 

Not that the HRRR is a good model, but we are talking about the next few hours so it does provide some information.

 

This is the precip type map for 9 a.m. showing snow down in SW WA...

 

cpofp_t1sfc_f03.png

 

 

And here is the map for 4 p.m... probably too aggressive but you get a general idea of the progression today.

 

cpofp_t1sfc_f10.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yea it’s tough to measure when there is drifting. Take a bunch and average them out. We had blowing and drifting yesterday, like I’ve never seen in Shawnigan Lake. It’s generally very calm here when it snows.

 

Looks like YYJ finally broke their streak and recorded over 6" of snow, about twice as much as fell here yesterday.

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HRRR is pretty much always too aggressive with the warm air.

Yes. But you get a sense of the general direction. And it does recognize the snow in SW WA this morning.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cold pattern continues in the long range on the 12z GFS with more brushes of arctic air and very cold onshore flow.  :unsure:

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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