Jump to content

February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV


Geos

Recommended Posts

If the storm goes more south will it then cause temps to go down the rest of the week

 

Please! I'm not ready for this to be over. I'm just getting used to having the climate of Buffalo and I don't want to it end just yet. 

  • Like 1

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We need the Fraser outflow to be a bit stronger today. That should help slow up the warm front.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey guys. This pattern looks to continue...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_46.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

not looking forward to rain on top of all the snow. Too bad today is going down the drain in terms of snow.

You are close to cut off line... assume it will be south of what the models show. I think you could hold on well into tomorrow.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

not looking forward to rain on top of all the snow. Too bad today is going down the drain in terms of snow.

You'll be just fine there.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I actually ened up with 1.6" of new snow when all was said and done last night.  Not terrible.  Sorry for my meltdown.  I get really high strung with these things.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey guys. This pattern looks to continue...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_46.png

The next 3 days are massively complicated and the models have been swinging wildly around.

 

312 hours out? Lock it in. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As long as Hoquiam is holding that NE wind, it's a good sign for sure.

 

Already one of the snowiest Februaries on record for many places in the Puget Sound region - anything that falls today is just icing on the cake!

 

Really hoping something can work out for the Portland folks tonight as well, though I'm pretty dubious about that WSW with this setup.

  • Like 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I actually ened up with 1.6" of new snow when all was said and done last night.  Not terrible.  Sorry for my meltdown.  I get really high strung with these things.

 

The pattern only looks to continue for the foreseeable future so I don't think you have anything to worry about! 

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As long as Hoquiam is holding that NE wind, it's a good sign for sure.

 

Already one of the snowiest Februaries on record for many places in the Puget Sound region - anything that falls today is just icing on the cake!

 

Really hoping something can work out for the Portland folks tonight as well, though I'm pretty dubious about that WSW with this setup.

 

 

Yeah, I really don't see any sticking snow here tonight. Maybe the emperor Euro will change my mind. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GEM is also frigid in the long term. 492 thickness line takes up residence here in Montana.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Please! I'm not ready for this to be over. I'm just getting used to having the climate of Buffalo and I don't want to it end just yet. 

Haha!  Yes, the hardest part about being a snow lover in W. Wa...  The fun always ends at some point, but heck, what a ride the last week has been! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wholeheartedly agree if the winds are still NE at Hoquiam that bodes pretty well for the Puget Sound region.  Another thing that may be a huge factor is how far offshore the low remains for much of this.  It will have much less power to dislodge the mid level cold being that far out.

 

At any rate the radar precip type is pretty encouraging right now.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Up to 33, but still absolutely dumping snow. Would have to think that bodes well for you guys up north.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The next 3 days are massively complicated and the models have been swinging wildly around.

 

312 hours out? Lock it in. :)

 

Small scale features in a large scale pattern. The overall pattern itself shows no signs of changing. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Haha!  Yes, the hardest part about being a snow lover in W. Wa...  The fun always ends at some point, but heck, what a ride the last week has been! 

 

 

Was not expecting it at all! I've received 14'' at my place since last Super Bowl Sunday and I was hoping to reach 20...still looks like theres a good shot of that, but I'm prepared for the worst. I've been able to get around just fine with AWD, so I say bring on more!

  • Like 2

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The pattern only looks to continue for the foreseeable future so I don't think you have anything to worry about! 

 

There is some moderation though.   Definitely cold overall and obviously there will be other opportunities.   

 

I don't see a pattern of warm SW flow and rain yet on the horizon.   

 

KSEA-2019021100-ecmwf-min-max-10.png

 

KPDX-2019021100-ecmwf-min-max-10.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Small scale features in a large scale pattern. The overall pattern itself shows no signs of changing. 

 

I'm still shocked at the persistence and agreement within literally all the models in the large scale pattern. That never happens even during the summer months. It's head scratching.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm still shocked at the persistence and agreement within literally all the models in the large scale pattern. That never happens even during the summer months. It's head scratching.

 

 

Definitely the most perplexing and surreal part of this is the duration.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is some moderation though.   Definitely cold overall and obviously there will be other opportunities.   

 

I don't see a pattern of warm SW flow and rain yet on the horizon.   

 

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the 12z Euro comes in colder than that. All the other 12z models this morning have.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Snowing in Westport.

Wow, not often it is raining in Chehalis and snowing there at the same time.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm still shocked at the persistence and agreement within literally all the models in the large scale pattern. That never happens even during the summer months. It's head scratching.

 

It is totally locked in right now. Pretty amazing. Maybe someday this can happen in January.

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the 12z Euro comes in colder than that. All the other 12z models this morning have.

 

 

Maybe... we will know in two hours.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the 12z GFS came close to verifying my March 2012 monthly snowfall record may fall. Tomorrow is a big day. If it sets up just right I'll get 12"+ if not I might not get much of anything.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is totally locked in right now. Pretty amazing. Maybe someday this can happen in January.

 

 

Jim said a really cold and snowy February is a good sign for the following winter and the pattern often repeats in some form.    I will take an order of this exact pattern for the entire month of December!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jim said a really cold and snowy February is a good sign for the following winter and the pattern often repeats in some form.    I will take an order of this exact pattern for the entire month of December!

 

I can think of some years it didn't work out as well, but it did in some form back in 1985, 1989, 1990...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FV3 is crazy.   It shows frozen precip still hanging on all the way down to Astoria and Longview overnight.   That can't be right?    Its 37 in Astoria now with a SE wind.    Its 00Z run showed the same thing.

 

prateptype_cat.conus.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models always make that mistake. It will hold longer than the models show. Question is how much longer?

The key here is that when a low doesn't take a track like last night i never get sw winds here. Even if wrf shows a sw wind here it will be dead calm. Still expecting a ton more here.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No specific indications of changeover timing ( just says "evening" ) or any specific information about boundary line of turn over to rain.   They must not know yet?

 

043
FXUS66 KSEW 111657
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
900 AM PST Mon Feb 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A warm front will move through Western Washington this
afternoon and tonight. Many portions of the lowlands will see the
snow turn to rain. The precipitation will taper off to scattered
showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Another weather system will arrive
later in the week with heavy mountain snow likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Snow will increase through
the afternoon as a warm front arrives. With offshore pressure
gradients the precip will remain snow for awhile--but as the
southerlies kick in this evening the snow will will turn to
rain for many lowland areas. Naturally the coast and southwest
will turn to rain first, but the change will come pretty quick
around Puget Sound and near the water this evening too. The
UW wrfgfs shows Port Angeles getting skunked tonight--probably due
to a typical precip shadowing effect so the winter storm warning for
the Admiralty Inlet area and the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca zone
will be downgraded to a winter weather advisory. For the most part
the forecast is in good shape as southerlies scouring the cool air
is fairly certain. The Seattle metro area will see the coolest temps
of the night early before the change to rain while away from the
water and for locations that have a little elevation we might see
the snow hang on longer. Whatcom county usually takes a long time to
scour out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A few legit cold shots being shown on the 12z GFS over the next two weeks.  A pretty good run overall.  It still appears surface gradients will be come northerly on Wednesday thus allowing some of the cold air over the north WA Interior to seep southward.

 

As a couple of asides....the relentless Kona low which is unquestionably related to the great pattern we are in has undoubtedly ruined many vacations this month.  Also...the tropical Pacific is have the WWB from hell right now.  No doubt that will try to rekindle the Nino which is essentially dead right now, but obviously this winter's Nino worked out ok for us!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A few legit cold shots being shown on the 12z GFS over the next two weeks.  A pretty good run overall.  It still appears surface gradients will be come northerly on Wednesday thus allowing some of the cold air over the north WA Interior to seep southward.

 

As a couple of asides....the relentless Kona low which is unquestionably related to the great pattern we are in has undoubtedly ruined many vacations this month.  Also...the tropical Pacific is have the WWB from hell right now.  No doubt that will try to rekindle the Nino which is essentially dead right now, but obviously this winter's Nino worked out ok for us!

 

 

It was not so great in Hawaii this weekend... with a really strong low to the north and strong NW winds.    But I was checking out web cams this weekend because they were talking about the strongest storm in decades and people were still on the beach and in the water and were not bundled up and it was quite sunny.

 

Overall its been quite dry with this pattern.   There is no tropical moisture entrained like can often happen.    Looks like it will be 'passing showers and sun' type pattern this week with highs in the 75-80 degree range for most of the resort areas.   That is not too bad.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

New Seattle AFD... don't normally read the AFD but I am looking for any data that I might have missed with this incoming system.

 

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Snow will increase through
the afternoon as a warm front arrives. With offshore pressure
gradients the precip will remain snow for awhile--but as the
southerlies kick in this evening the snow will will turn to
rain for many lowland areas. Naturally the coast and southwest
will turn to rain first, but the change will come pretty quick
around Puget Sound and near the water this evening too. The
UW wrfgfs shows Port Angeles getting skunked tonight--probably due
to a typical precip shadowing effect so the winter storm warning for
the Admiralty Inlet area and the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca zone
will be downgraded to a winter weather advisory. For the most part
the forecast is in good shape as southerlies scouring the cool air
is fairly certain. The Seattle metro area will see the coolest temps
of the night early before the change to rain while away from the
water and for locations that have a little elevation we might see
the snow hang on longer. Whatcom county usually takes a long time to
scour out.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...