February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

WRF shows the Fraser outflow still going strong tomorrow afternoon. Incredible. Whatcom County and Vancouver Island are not going to warm up tomorrow. Different story south of Mt. Vernon though. It even shows a SW wind into Snoqualmie Pass. I also did not realize how close North Bend and Leavenworth are as the crow flies!

 

It's interesting, since we used to live in Bellingham, we would drive to Everett to get here and turn East on highway 2, giving the impression that Leavenworth is due East of Everett, but in reality we are due East of Seattle.  

[Blizzard777]

Cold air will be more stubborn to leave I'm assuming then.

Why can’t it be the other way around ? The warm air will be more stubb

Please! I'm not ready for this to be over. I'm just getting used to having the climate of Buffalo and I don't want to it end just yet.

 

It has been awesome ! I’ve got paths around my house with snow banks along them. Feel like I’m up at the lodge living. A one day event with 3 inches will never be the same now that I’ve enjoyed this!

[TT-SEA]

It's interesting, since we used to live in Bellingham, we would drive to Everett to get here and turn East on highway 2, giving the impression that Leavenworth is due East of Everett, but in reality we are due East of Seattle.  

 

 

Just glancing at the map... you would think I could get to Leavenworth in just a little more time than it takes for me to get to Seattle.   That is not even close to reality though!

[SeanNyberg]

That 9:00AM AFD for Seattle area by NWS was honestly, the most vague and lame update I have ever read by them!  It honestly read like someone who knew nothing about weather watched one King 5 forecast and wrote that up.

Sorry - a random complaint, but they are normally filled with more nuance with an explanation of alternative possibilities. The most technical term he used was "pressure gradient" lol!  

Anyway - just my observation I do REALLY appreciate all their hard and amazing work, which is maybe why I was a little *whomp whomp* with that one.

Current Conditions Bellevue, WA: Cloudy 30 degrees NE Wind 

[Blizzard777]

I actually ened up with 1.6" of new snow when all was said and done last night.  Not terrible.  Sorry for my meltdown.  I get really high strung with these things.

Got you covered, a few weeks ago I posted what would happen to passionate snowstorm members.

 

 

Flurries been falling for about a hour now

32*

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

By the way, during this whole time I think we all owe a debt of gratitude to those who have been posting maps that are not available without a subscription, and even those that are available.  There are a lot of you that have really helped the rest of this community.  Tim, you have posted so many maps, no doubt more than anyone,  and so many people have benefited from seeing them.  I am very grateful.  I know Shawnigan also posts a lot of maps, so does SilverFallsAndrew, FrontalSnowsquall, etc.  Probably missed a few, but thanks.  I know it will help keep some of the new people here, as they see that there is a lot of very useful information here, as well as good discussions.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This will be the biggest bust in a long time not having a warning here and just an advisory. The entire hood canal is going to get nuked and i have a hard time believing some of the low totals being predicted most places.

[snow_wizard]

The FV3 is a lot snowier than the operational GFS once again and has a nice chilly interlude this weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensemble mean for PDX is -5C or lower from late on the 14th through the 23rd. 

 

The mean is about -4.5C tomorrow and Wednesday with the heavy precip.

[Gummy]

So what is the best case plausible scenario right now for snow in the Puget Sound, for the low to stall a bit as it approaches Vancouver Island / the straight?

[snow_wizard]

This will be the biggest bust in a long time not having a warning here and just an advisory. The entire hood canal is going to get nuked and i have a hard time believing some of the low totals being predicted most places.

 

I'll be interested to see the Euro.  The NCEP models like to destroy the cold too easily.  I really like how the low center stays so far off the coast for much of the event.

[snow_wizard]

So what is the best case plausible scenario right now for snow in the Puget Sound, for the low to stall a bit as it approaches Vancouver Island / the straight?

 

 

We want the low to be more south...like Central WA Coast.  But yes...we want it stay further out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

About 1/3 of the ensembles show a very brief, but significant warm up on Thursday ahead of the next trough.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'll be interested to see the Euro. The NCEP models like to destroy the cold too easily. I really like how the low center stays so far off the coast for much of the event.

Another thing that can happen is meso lows impbedded in the moisture train keeping offshore flow going. That has happened a few times i Remember

[wxmet]

WAA surging from the south looks like Olympia will switch over to rain soon if not already. Not a good sign for the Sound.

[Requiem]

Winter Storm Watch for PDX, huh. Wasn’t expecting that one. Maybe an an areal flood advisory, but no winter weather headlines.

[GHweatherChris]

Ripping out there, 1.5 inches new. .25 to go to hit 10 inches in the last 8 days. Not too bad for here in February!

[Fircrest]

Snowing here in Fircrest (West Tacoma). Up to 32 after a low of 29. Taking a snow day.  Not much going on with Tacoma's Parks department at the moment. I'm glad the potential of an ice storm has gone away.  That is one type of extreme weather that I do not like.  I have seen the terrible damage it has done to our trees in the past...2012 for example.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I have 8 plow jobs to do. Uggg

[snow_wizard]

Oh my!  The 12z GFS esnemble is consderably colder than previous starting this weekend.  A lot of really cold emembers and a period of sustained well below normal temps on the mean.

[TT-SEA]

WAA surging from the south looks like Olympia will switch over to rain soon if not already. Not a good sign for the Sound.

 

Looks like the wind switch line is from just south of Hoquiam to just south of Olympia.  

[kokaneekidz]

I just feel that last nights weird procession of events threw a major wrench in their beliefs about today. Hopefully last night was just a DEAD CAT BOUNCE and today and thru tomorrow will be epic in terms of the whole Olympia north and environs just get plastered with 12-24 inches of new.

[TT-SEA]

Here is the 12Z ECMWF for the period just ending now...

 

[snow_wizard]

WAA surging from the south looks like Olympia will switch over to rain soon if not already. Not a good sign for the Sound.

 

I'm seeing northerly winds between OLM and Chehalis on the Mesonet.

[snow_wizard]

Nice dry snow has just started falling here.

[TT-SEA]

Through 4 p.m. today... it will snow this afternoon in Seattle.   But this is less than the 00Z run showed.

 

[snow_wizard]

If I was in Chehalis I would be feeling scrwed.  Just one little hole of rain there.

[TT-SEA]

4-10 p.m.     This is more than the 00Z run showed around Seattle.  

 

[snow_wizard]

Through 4PM...

 

Yay!

 

I really like the way snow is falling here.  Obviously a nice deep cold layer.

[GHweatherChris]

Looks to be some heavy echos moving this way, hope they hold together.

[TT-SEA]

Through 4 a.m... looks like it might snow all night in Seattle on this run.   Temps are in the 33-34 degree range though.  

 

[snow_wizard]

The center of the low appears to off the south WA Coast by the looks of buoy and land wind obs.

[wxmet]

I'm seeing northerly winds between OLM and Chehalis on the Mesonet.

At the surface? You have to look above the surface since warm air is less dense than cold air so it overruns it initially.

[Requiem]

So, correct me if I’m wrong, but could I get slammed tonight with some heavy snow (being at 750 ft)? I don’t really buy it as the EURO shows nothing, but...

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through 4 a.m.    That is 9 inches at SEA.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The fact that chris already has 1.5 inches is pretty important for the sound.

[TT-SEA]

Through 10 a.m. tomorrow.    It shows 36 or 37 degrees in Seattle tomorrow morning.

 

[TT-SEA]

Tomorrow afternoon... around 40 in Seattle during the afternoon.

 

[TT-SEA]

Tomorrow evening...

 

[kidcubby]

I just don't believe Portland will get cold enough this evening for any accumulation.