February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

[TT-SEA]

I will keep this simple and post just one map for the Thursday morning - Sunday morning period:

 

[epiceast]

Snowing hard and sticking as of now in Westport according to my parental units!

That has to be almost a fully isothermal atmosphere

[HighlandExperience]

Cliff Mass is wrong. Again..

 

Cliff says he trusts the WRF more. Let us hope the EURO is right today for snowfall. 

[MossMan]

No real cool down from the 00Z ECMWF on the new 12Z run for the Wed-Sat period. Might be a tad warmer actually. Lots of low 40s from Bellingham to Eugene.

I have a feeling this is going to be it after tonight. Lots of 1-2k snow levels and lots of snow for the foothills and mountains for the rest of the month. I’m probably wrong though...who knows.

[epiceast]

I will keep this simple and post just one map for the Thursday morning - Sunday morning period:

 

Is there another reload after this or is it so far away there is no point in discussing it?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Cliff Mass still saying only a few inches for most of the central and south puget sound, guess he isnt buying the Euro numbers.

He wrote that before the Euro came out. But in general he does trust the wrf a lot.

[TT-SEA]

I have a feeling this is going to be it after tonight. Lots of 1-2k snow levels and lots of snow for the foothills and mountains for the rest of the month. I’m probably wrong though...who knows.

 

 

Definitely looks like an extended thaw period coming starting tomorrow through Sunday... but if the overall pattern remains in place then its certainly possible there will be more.  

[TT-SEA]

Is there another reload after this or is it so far away there is no point in discussing it?

 

 

I am just getting ahead of the requests that always come.   

 

The overall pattern still looks great over the weekend... its just not cold enough.

 

 

[epiceast]

Definitely looks like an extended thaw period coming starting tomorrow through Sunday... but if the overall pattern remains in place then its certainly possible there will be more.  

As long as it hits freezing everynight you guys should have snow going into next reload if it comes early next week. Here in Missoula we still had 8" of refrozen snow going into this February outblast despite above average temperatures, but we only had one warm night all winter(above freezing + rain). Last 2 years were much colder with a lot more snow but several overnight torches reduced the snowpack to the same amounts by early February.

 

edit: carry on with your map posting I won't interrupt it during periods of high interest in the future

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the heavier snow has made it to south Tacoma or so.  OLM looks pretty heavy.

[MossMan]

Definitely looks like an extended thaw period coming starting tomorrow through Sunday... but if the overall pattern remains in place then its certainly possible there will be more.

I know you have a life beyond post maps for us all day...however I was curious how the overnight lows are looking from tomorrow through the weekend?

[snow_wizard]

Cliff Mass is wrong. Again..

 

I don't understand his distrust of the ECMWF.  It proves itself time and time again at this time frame.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Fv3 sticking to its guns showing massive snow.

[TT-SEA]

As long as it hits freezing everynight you guys should have snow going into next reload if it comes early next week. Here in Missoula we still had 8" of refrozen snow going into this February outblast despite above average temperatures, but we only had one warm night all winter(above freezing + rain). Last 2 years were much colder with a lot more snow but several overnight torches reduced the snowpack to the same amounts by early February.

 

 

Yeah... without a pattern of warm SW wind and rain this snow is going to stick around even through several days in the low 40s.     Particularly if the Seattle area gets another 9-10 inches tonight.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Up to 35˚F in very light snow on Bainbridge. I sense a slushmageddon approaching…

 

.28" of moisture in last night's 4.9" of snow, amazingly dry for this area.

[snow_wizard]

I know you have a life beyond post maps for us all day...however I was curious how the overnight lows are looking from tomorrow through the weekend?

 

At this point a hard freeze looks good for Wednesday night.  Other than that near freezing.  Getting a hard freeze after a little melting will be important to glaciate the snow pack as Phil calls it.

[jakerepp]

Yeah... without a pattern of warm SW wind and rain this snow is going to stick around even through several days in the low 40s.     Particularly if the Seattle area gets another 9-10 inches tonight.  

 

I'm just imagining the piles of snow in parking lots, especially places like Costco, that are going to persist through March. 

[Front Ranger]

Cliff says he trusts the WRF more. Let us hope the EURO is right today for snowfall. 

 

He's a little biased when it comes to that model. He always likes to point out that it's higher-res than the Euro, but that doesn't make it more accurate.

[snow_wizard]

Up to 35˚F in very light snow on Bainbridge. I sense a slushmageddon approaching…

 

.28" of moisture in last night's 4.9" of snow, amazingly dry for this area.

 

It will get colder when the snow really starts getting heavy.

[GHweatherChris]

Mom said they have a 1/2 of snow in Westport and roads are covered.

[snow_wizard]

I'm just imagining the piles of snow in parking lots, especially places like Costco, that are going to persist through March. 

 

For sure.  We already have huge piles here.

[snow_wizard]

Mom said they have a 1/2 of snow in Westport and roads are covered.

 

Fabulous news.  That means the low is south.

[GHweatherChris]

It will get colder when the snow really starts getting heavy.

It is ripping here!

[TT-SEA]

I know you have a life beyond post maps for us all day...however I was curious how the overnight lows are looking from tomorrow through the weekend?

 

SEA:

 

Tues - 40/32

Wed - 38/28

Thurs - 41/26

Fri - 41/35 (rainy day)

Sat - 40/28

Sun - 38/21

Mon - 40/28

[snow_wizard]

He's a little biased when it comes to that model. He always likes to point out that it's higher-res than the Euro, but that doesn't make it more accurate.

 

Yup.  For precip amounts and type the Euro is very good at this range.

[GHweatherChris]

Ruh Roh, Astoria just had a huge temp jump up to 46...

[snow_wizard]

Fv3 sticking to its guns showing massive snow.

 

Good chance for that model to earn some trust.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

It will get colder when the snow really starts getting heavy.

 

I hope you're right. I'm at 16.4" for the month right now. Breaking 20" doesn't seem that much a stretch, but mid-high 20s would be even more epic. And if I get there, there's a chance another stray event (a possibility, since we'll still be in a cold pattern) could get me above 30". And if not, it's been a pretty darn good month already, considering that three of four weeks ago I was bummed about what I then saw as the likely prospect of a no-snow winter.

[snow_wizard]

Ruh Roh, Astoria just had a huge temp jump up to 46...

 

No model run has shown that not happening.  You just need the low center to stay south of you.

[Jesse]

This is a pretty depressing setup for PDX. Glad to hear you guys are doing well up north. Hopefully everyone feels fully vindicated for 1/10/17.

[Prairiedog]

Related question for all of you with more knowledge that me: What is the biggest factor in snow falling when surface temps are above freezing? 

Besides dew points, you can get snow falling when air temps are as warm as 35f sometimes if mid-level atmosphere is cold.  Snow will stay frozen down to the surface, it just won't stick. If the air is dry like when we have a dry cold east wind, you get evaporational cooling too that will help.  Sometimes even with air temps at 36f you can get nice big flakes if the upper levels are really cold.  They're endangered species obviously. 

[TT-SEA]

No model run has shown that not happening.  You just need the low center to stay south of you.

 

Except the FV3 which shows Astoria staying as snow or sleet through tomorrow morning.  

[MossMan]

SEA:

 

Tues - 40/32

Wed - 38/28

Thurs - 41/26

Fri - 41/35 (rainy day)

Sat - 40/28

Sun - 38/21

Mon - 40/28

Thanks Tim! Hard freezes coming for me still almost every night it appears.

[MossMan]

Snow has really picked up here in the last 15min. Don’t know temp since I’m at work.

[snowbustcity]

Fine flakes falling in NE Seattle.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

This is a pretty depressing setup for PDX. Glad to hear you guys are doing well up north. Hopefully everyone feels fully vindicated for 1/10/17.

 

I certainly feel well-compensated for missing out on the Jan 2017 storm!

[wxmet]

Except the FV3 which shows Astoria staying as snow or sleet through tomorrow morning.  

 

Astoria, OR? I'm not seeing that on the FV3-GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Flood watch posted for NW Oregon.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I don't understand his distrust of the ECMWF.  It proves itself time and time again at this time frame.

He's letting pride run his mind. His precious wrf CAN'T BE WRONG.

[Snowfreak]

Mod. snow here now but temp up to 34 from 28 earlier this morning.  Wind from the SE...  Hoping to get at least another 2.5" before change over.  17.5" total for event so far, can we hit 20"??