February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

[Deweydog]

This is a pretty depressing setup for PDX. Glad to hear you guys are doing well up north. Hopefully everyone feels fully vindicated for 1/10/17.

Drought busting is depressing???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is a pretty depressing setup for PDX. Glad to hear you guys are doing well up north. Hopefully everyone feels fully vindicated for 1/10/17.

 

Didn't you just get 5.5" of snow the other night?! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Drought busting is depressing???

 

2-4" of rain forecast for the lowlands. 

 

[Front Ranger]

Except the FV3 which shows Astoria staying as snow or sleet through tomorrow morning.

You can't trust anything precip-related with that model lol. It has its strengths, but that's a major weakness.

[runninthruda206]

You can't trust anything precip-related with that model lol. It has its strengths, but that's a major weakness.

what are its strengths?

[El_Nina]

So I guess it's gonna rain and snow at the same time?

[Front Ranger]

Moderate snow now in Tacoma.

 

[Jesse]

Drought busting is depressing???

That’s the one silver lining. Of course tons of eventual snowmelt would have been just as effective!

[Blizzard777]

Snow increasing in rate here in Federal Way

Temp is up to 33.7 with slight east wind. Expecting temps to begin to level off and drop slightly

Nothing sticking yet

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Epic month for Seattle, but still a solid month for NW Oregon. 6.3" at PDX, a few inches at SLE, and probably the coldest February in decades...Not much to complain about. I want January 1950, but I will settle for what I can get...

[Front Ranger]

Hoquiam holding fast at 33 with NE wind. Definitely later switchover than expected there.

[Jesse]

:’(

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

:’(

 

54C81E31-E7EF-4AC1-B1C8-A53CCD7EFACC.png

 

Haven't you heard the song? They'll be back again someday...

[Blizzard777]

Driveway is ready to receive

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I absolutely love the fact we are having a real winter finally. Systems like this are classic PNW fare. 

 

Today

Rain. High near 36. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight

Rain before 4am, then rain and snow. Low around 32. Windy, with a south wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow. High near 34. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow. Low around 31. South southwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Wednesday

Snow likely before 10am, then snow showers likely after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

[Front Ranger]

Except the FV3 which shows Astoria staying as snow or sleet through tomorrow morning.  

 

I didn't see the 12z, but 6z FV3 showed this.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the Langley Hill radar look like it's showing the low coming in a little south of Hoquiam?

 

And isn't that further south than forecast?

[Front Ranger]

what are its strengths?

 

Seems to be decent at large-scale pattern recognition, slightly better than GFS or CMC. Still not close to Euro, though.

[XLVIII43to8]

I'm just imagining the piles of snow in parking lots, especially places like Costco, that are going to persist through March. 

 

Yea but you'd be surprised how a couple days of temps in the 50s with heavy rain can just decimate any snow left over.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

High wind watch now for the Central Oregon Coast!

[jakerepp]

Besides dew points, you can get snow falling when air temps are as warm as 35f sometimes if mid-level atmosphere is cold.  Snow will stay frozen down to the surface, it just won't stick. If the air is dry like when we have a dry cold east wind, you get evaporational cooling too that will help.  Sometimes even with air temps at 36f you can get nice big flakes if the upper levels are really cold.  They're endangered species obviously. 

 

I assumed it was that simple. Thanks!

Really wanted to study meteorology in school, but my baseball scholarship offers didn't come from schools with that as a program. Had to choose one or the other.

[GHweatherChris]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the Langley Hill radar look like it's showing the low coming in a little south of Hoquiam?

 

And isn't that further south than forecast?

The low is nowhere near the coast, it is way off shore.

[Front Ranger]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the Langley Hill radar look like it's showing the low coming in a little south of Hoquiam?

 

And isn't that further south than forecast?

 

The low is still way offshore. That's just the warm front.

[snowbustcity]

Snow starting to pick up to a moderate fall rate now in NE Seattle. Starting to see bigger flakes. Doesn't seem to be sticking quite yet...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The Johnson here in PDX Metro is forecasted to crest and get above flood stage sometime Tuesday morning. Not good for the morning commute because lots of people take Foster to get to work, me included. I'll have to find an alternate way to work now. It's going to be a mess tomorrow morning getting into work with all the heavy rain.

 

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=syco3&wfo=pqr

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I notice Sea Tac is at 34. So probably not much more accumulating snow there for the time being.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Johnson here in PDX Metro is forecasted to crest and get above flood stage sometime Tuesday morning. Not good for the morning commute because lots of people take Foster to get to work, me included. I'll have to find an alternate way to work now. It's going to be a mess tomorrow morning getting into work with all the heavy rain.

 

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=syco3&wfo=pqr

 

Hopefully it tuns to heavy snow during the commute. 

 

EURO shows midnight highs for W. Oregon, with afternoon temps only mid-30s along the I-5 corridor. 

[HoodCanalBridge]

First time caller, long time listener...

 

Had flurries, then a transition to about 5 minutes of rain here and now back to small flaked snow.   Temp gauge outside is showing 36...

[Kayla]

12z ECMWF did indeed trend a bit colder again in the long range. Another blast incoming at day 10.

 

It never ends!

 

[seattleweatherguy]

light snow in bothell

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z ECMWF did indeed trend a bit colder again in the long range. Another blast incoming at day 10.

 

It never ends!

 

 

Cold in Cali too. Tim may point out this is a warm up from what we have seen and that is true. However, high temps on the 12z EURO average 42 at PDX and 43 at SLE and EUG. That is about 7-8 degrees below average.

[FroYoBro]

Really pouring here. Fanno Creek right by my house might flood in to the road tomorrow morning. 

[Prairiedog]

I assumed it was that simple. Thanks!

Really wanted to study meteorology in school, but my baseball scholarship offers didn't come from schools with that as a program. Had to choose one or the other.

Where you playing ball?

[Kayla]

Cold in Cali too. Tim may point out this is a warm up from what we have seen and that is true. However, high temps on the 12z EURO average 42 at PDX and 43 at SLE and EUG. That is about 7-8 degrees below average.

 

The run overall is still colder than the 00z as well.

[snowbustcity]

Temps really shot up here in the past 30 minutes or so. Reporting 36.

[snow_wizard]

Starting to snow at a decent clip here with weak ENE wind.

[jakerepp]

Where you playing ball?

 

Bellevue College (took 2 meteorology classes there) and the Northwest Nazarene in Nampa, Idaho. Ended up drafted by the Phillies in the 27th round in 2015, so it worked out in the end, even though I never really pitched in a game as a pro. Had arm issues and came home 3 weeks after arriving in Florida. If you Google my name (Jake Reppert) you'll find a lot on me.

[kokaneekidz]

12z ECMWF did indeed trend a bit colder again in the long range. Another blast incoming at day 10.

 

It never ends!

 

At least the WARM BLOB in the Pacific will be decimated by this continued cold. That bodes well for salmon, less algae blooms, dead loss, etc etc . This coming summer might actually resemble the summer's of old when I was a kid. Those summers were great 60's to 70's with some morning fog and no smoke to speak of.....

[Front Ranger]

I notice Sea Tac is at 34. So probably not much more accumulating snow there for the time being.

 

Depends on precip intensity. DP is still in the 20s.

 

That being said, the timing of this is less than ideal for accumulations.

[wxmet]

When you dive into the details of the FV3-GFS it's easy to see why it sustains snow over the Central Sound. It shows a strong pressure gradient eastwind prevailing in the PBL (hinted by the ECMWF 12z to a certain degree) which promotes CAA from the east. The WAA inversion never gets above freezing. These are the types of things can throw wrenches into the forecast. We'll have to see how this transpires over the next 24 hours.