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February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV


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Guest CulverJosh

Alright, I definitely understand the snowfall part not panning out. But the front itself just does not seem to be stalling and on radar is moving rather quickly. The rainfall totals aren't going to bust, are they?

 

What are you looking at?  The band of heavy returns is barely moving.  Exactly what is forecast.

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#4 all-time month for SEA.

I thought #7

 

1) Jan 1950 - 57.2"

2) Jan 1969 - 45.4"

3) Feb 1916 - 35.4"

4) Jan 1916 - 23.3"

5) Dec 1968 - 22.1"

6) Nov 1896 - 20.5"

7) Feb 2019 - 20.2"

8 Jan 1954 - 20.0"

 

With favorable pattern continuing, I think eclipsing Jan 1916 is well within reach for top 4 all time.

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Guest CulverJosh

Yeah, there is no way that is snow. Spots higher up in the coast range are still getting rain on cams.

 

Ya, Someone earlier had pointed out that it was so my eyes deceived me.  I'm having Feb 5, 2017 flashbacks.

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Dumping here still. d**n near 24 inches.

Holy cow. Sounds like you probably will be snowbound for a day or two.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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you can definitely see where the gradients go calm on 850 and 925 maps, maybe once that area catches up to heavy rain the magical evaporative cooling can happen.

 

Fingers crossed! Glad this thing isn't as progressive as I thought.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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A tree broke in my yard. I think I'm getting rain now

 

Thinking now this may not turn to rain at all. Maybe it will in the morning lightly, but not tonight. Temp actually backed down to 31.3*.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Mark mentioned ZR in Corbet, OR but didn't say what happens going forward. We have it 

lightly in Washougal, WA too. NWS doesn't address it. Will this be an issue when the rain increases?

We're 32 at sea level with an east wind and the airport (PDX) is 46 with a south wind. It's only

20 minutes away over the Columbia River! Wondering what to expect??

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I thought #7

 

1) Jan 1950 - 57.2"

2) Jan 1969 - 45.4"

3) Feb 1916 - 35.4"

4) Jan 1916 - 23.3"

5) Dec 1968 - 22.1"

6) Nov 1896 - 20.5"

7) Feb 2019 - 20.2"

8 Jan 1954 - 20.0"

 

With favorable pattern continuing, I think eclipsing Jan 1916 is well within reach for top 4 all time.

That includes pre-SEA records. For the airport, Feb 2019 is #4 on record.

A forum for the end of the world.

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It's snowing outside!!! Finally I was able to experience some relatively heavy snow of about an inch per hour! Up to 2.75" on the day which means I'm getting very close to my dream of a 3" storm (especially if you consider the snow from yesterday)! About 6-7" on the ground here.

 

If we get a couple more hours of this we could approach 2011 snowfall depths. Total for the 2010-11 winter of 21" currently look unattainable, but a couple more weeks of this might bring it.

 

31.5F pretty constant since around noon.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Mark mentioned ZR in Corbet, OR but didn't say what happens going forward. We have it

lightly in Washougal, WA too. NWS doesn't address it. Will this be an issue when the rain increases?

We're 32 at sea level with an east wind and the airport (PDX) is 46 with a south wind. It's only

20 minutes away over the Columbia River! Wondering what to expect??

Yeah, that might be an issue especially for the morning commute. I suspect if you're getting ice now, it will remain that way through the morning. If you have Twitter, maybe tweet @NWSPortland and see if they give you a response.

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It's snowing outside!!! Finally I was able to experience some relatively heavy snow of about an inch per hour! Up to 2.75" on the day which means I'm getting very close to my dream of a 3" storm (especially if you consider the snow from yesterday)! About 6-7" on the ground here.

 

If we get a couple more hours of this we could approach 2011 snowfall depths. Total for the 2010-11 winter of 21" currently look unattainable, but a couple more weeks of this might bring it.

 

31.5F pretty constant since around noon.

Well deserved

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Coast range is definitely cooling off

 

Good, good. Heavy rain is just starting to enter PDX. Gonna be a soaker, though I think models are overplaying precip amounts (latest GFS shows 2 inches into tomorrow morning).

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Front seems to be slowing pretty significantly to the NW of the metro area. Could be a good thing or a bad thing. Either it mostly stalls there then eventually picks up steam and moves through relatively quickly later on (which wouldn't be ideal), or it very slowly drapes across NW Oregon/SW Wa throughout the night, which would maximize isothermal potential.

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Hell of a WRF run

 

WRF to me is the hardest model to navigate. How does it look for PDX?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Guest CulverJosh

If the hrrr has its say the frontal passage is going to be at a snails pace.  And also looks like a more south/north orientation towards daybreak as it pivots.  Typical stalling front is what I see, go isothermals!!

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