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2/14-2/17 Possible Winter Storm Train


Minny_Weather

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There's your snow for those in the KC/MO region...nearly identical snow shield when comparing to the Nov 8th-10 upper level wave which produced snow across NE/KS/MO.  Just amazing how powerful the LRC can be...this is just the beginning of a series of disturbances throughout next week.

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There's your snow for those in the KC/MO region...nearly identical snow shield when comparing to the Nov 8th-10 upper level wave which produced snow across NE/KS/MO.  Just amazing how powerful the LRC can be...this is just the beginning of a series of disturbances throughout ne

Truly amazing and this will be the Feb version with a more amped jet stream, so I think we can add on to those totals a little.

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Man, just a couple of days ago, this was advertised to be a "PowerHouse" and then suddenly, it went to a simple meh! :wacko:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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We are going to KC on Friday morning for a belated Christmas that we weren't supposed to host on Dec. 26th but our blizzard derailed those plans.   I am hoping we can avoid the snow chances coming through from Central Nebraska to KC.  Our school has a scheduled day off on Friday so it works out great, but we always deal with some type of weather when traveling it seems.

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NOAA:

 

LONG TERM / THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 

A brief respite from the active weather pattern will occur Thursday

with dry weather as the surface ridging quickly passes by. Attention

then shifts to another very dynamic low pressure system ejecting out

of the Plains Thursday night into Friday. There continues to remain

some differences in the track of the low, but long range guidance

has been in pretty good agreement that this system will potentially

be even stronger as it deepens to the mid 980s hPa as it tracks near

the region. Thermal profiles with this system suggest that another

significant winter storm will be possible, with snow being the main

ptype.

 

The focus since has been on the 2nd system, but as of yesterday, CPC likes us for system #1

 

20190211 CPC hazards_d3_7.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It's nice to see folks to the south getting in on the action.  Unfortunately, models have shifted the entire wave train south of my area.  I guess we got our storm.  Still, several storms would have been nice.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The focus since has been on the 2nd system, but as of yesterday, CPC likes us for system #1

 

attachicon.gif20190211 CPC hazards_d3_7.png

Big question here is, will it come to fruition?! Whether is wave 1 or 2 is fine w me, as long as we get inundated w an all snow event w greater than 6."

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'll take that!  Puts the heavy band right on me.

Me too! Running outta Wintertime to be greedy at this point. March is knocking on our doorstep.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Unfortunately, models have shifted the entire wave train south of my area.

 

I guess I have to take this comment back.  The new euro appears to have a couple decent systems dropping snow across Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'm interested in seeing the next low at day 7-8.  The euro shows the surface features way southeast, but the 850 low tracks across Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3rd wave on Wednesday lol

 

I suppose there's not a ton of moisture to work with when the surface front is so far south of the region, but the ratios would probably be pretty good.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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With my luck those totals will be cut in half or just be freezing drizzle by the time the event gets here!! This is by far though the best opportunity for me to receive snow that I have seen in a while so hopefully it pans out! 

Did you read the Hastings disco this morning?  They are surprised we haven't had much snow.

 

Pattern: for those who love snow...it`s frustrating that we have

a -PNA pattern in place but can`t seem to get a big snowstorm.

The high over low configuration btwn AK and HI and the Wrn trof

that results has yielded many 6+ inch snowstorms over the yrs.

This pattern just doesn`t seem to want to produce. For sure...the

pattern has turned colder and that will cont for at least the next

2 wks (see the CPC temp outlooks). We need to remain alert as

this pattern is favorable for significant snow.

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Did you read the Hastings disco this morning?  They are surprised we haven't had much snow.

 

Pattern: for those who love snow...it`s frustrating that we have

a -PNA pattern in place but can`t seem to get a big snowstorm.

The high over low configuration btwn AK and HI and the Wrn trof

that results has yielded many 6+ inch snowstorms over the yrs.

This pattern just doesn`t seem to want to produce. For sure...the

pattern has turned colder and that will cont for at least the next

2 wks (see the CPC temp outlooks). We need to remain alert as

this pattern is favorable for significant snow.

I did read that, pretty crazy! Hopefully we cash in here in the upcoming weeks. I would like to see a prolonged period with snow on the ground before march hits; that's when your snow pack disappears in a couple days with the heating of the day! 

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In my opinion using the LRC the storm on the 19th and 20th should be the biggest one in the series.  Tom what's your thoughts on this?

Just got back in the saddle and catching up on things...yes, the 18th-20th system bears watching for begin the biggest of the bunch next week.  Great set up which will tap into copious GOM moisture.  This one correlates to the storm system that hit the Sub on New Year's eve.

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I just don't think the clipper system for Friday will be that far southwest, those types of systems usually don't do that and I wouldn't be surprised if it comes more northeast eventually. But I'm definitely liking the trends for this weekend! I don't remember a stretch of winter weather this good in years!

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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