2/14-2/17 Possible Winter Storm Train

[Minny_Weather]

12z GEFS look pretty nice across the heartland...this is just through this weekend.

Seeing that those are 10:1 maps and these look like 15-20:1 events, I'll take most of those.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Minny_Weather]

 

 

A quick moving shortwave coming out of the central Rockies could

spread some light snow into the area for Friday. Highs only in the

teens, with the potential for another inch or two of snow, but

with relatively light winds. The good news about this system is

that it appears to only be snow, and no mixed precipitation is

expected. Snow winds down Friday evening. Cold again Friday night

with lows in the single digits.

 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)

Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

 

While there may be a brief respite early Saturday morning, the

next weather system is already moving into the area by Saturday

afternoon. There seems to be very good model agreement with this

system with snow developing through the day Saturday and continuing

Saturday night, tapering off by Sunday evening. In fact, there

appears to be enough model continuity on timing and location to

boost pops into the 70 to 80% range. Like the system on Friday,

winds do not appear to be especially strong with this system, but

there is the potential for at least a few inches of snow. Again,

this system appears to be purely snow with no mixed precipitation

expected. As always, this system is too far out to give an amount

yet, but we're well into the plowable, winter weather advisory

range. Stay tuned.

 

Winter's tight grip on the region continues, another trough

appears to bring more snow chances to the area for Monday

afternooninto Monday night, although as we typically see, model

solutions begin to diverge by then.

 

OAX is more impressed by the Saturday night wave than the first wave. I can see where they are coming from on that, the model solutions for the Friday wave just scream "WEENIE BAND IN THE MAKING."

[Bryan1117]

I just don't think the clipper system for Friday will be that far southwest, those types of systems usually don't do that and I wouldn't be surprised if it comes more northeast eventually. But I'm definitely liking the trends for this weekend! I don't remember a stretch of winter weather this good in years!

Yeah even though we have been nickel and dimed to death by these 2 to 4 inch snowfalls, the reporting station at Omaha Eppley is already at 29 inches of snow for the season that puts us above average for the season on snowfall with half of February and all of March still to go. 

 

The pattern this weekend looks like a lot of fun for us snow lovers in Eastern Nebraska. The 2nd wave on Saturday-Sunday looks like it has the potential to give us our largest snowfall of the season so far... something to watch as I am cautiously optimistic. Either way it looks like more snow is coming for us in Nebraska - hoping our recently snow starved friends to the west in Central Nebraska can cash in on some white gold this time as well.

[Tom]

18z Euro...still suggesting a juicy wave on Friday with temps holding in the mid/upper 10's!  #PowderDayFriday

 

I could see this wave ending up being a warning snow around the KC region into MO.

[CentralNebWeather]

1st wave on the NAM is a good hit for Nebraska Friday moving southeast towards KC

[Minny_Weather]

NAM is cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs imo. The amounts look pretty but I think we all know we'll see those decrease. One thing that is encouraging, though, is the fact that it trends earlier. If this happens during the day that'd be awesome. I'm tired of night snowfalls.

[jcwxguy]

Wish it was little farther north, but plenty of time for changes

[Craig-OmahaWX]

A little too close for comfort!

 

[jaster220]

I get a storm running over my head today, and then the "biggie" system Friday goes POOF! and becomes this suppressed clipper thing. Great stuff happen'.

 

Tom buddy. I thought this be the winter Chi-town would bust out of it's recent snowless winter funk. Who pulled the plug on that idea??

[Bryan1117]

A little too close for comfort!

 

Yeah that screams dry air issues for Omaha on that run, thankfully plenty of time for the models to sort this wave out. 

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah that screams dry air issues for Omaha on that run, thankfully plenty of time for the models to sort this wave out. 

I don't think dry air will be a major problem with this one, actually. The DGZ looks to be fully saturated, so all we have to worry about is track and progressiveness with this one.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Minny_Weather]

C’mon we all know the Friday system is going to turn into a 2” turd again for Omaha. Gotta keep with the theme this winter

True. Congrats Iowa peeps! 

[Niko]

Its only Tuesday...still time for changes. As they say, "it ain't ova until its ova."

[Niko]

I get a storm running over my head today, and then the "biggie" system Friday goes POOF! and becomes this suppressed clipper thing. Great stuff happen'.

 

Tom buddy. I thought this be the winter Chi-town would bust out of it's recent snowless winter funk. Who pulled the plug on that idea??

:lol:

[Tom]

I get a storm running over my head today, and then the "biggie" system Friday goes POOF! and becomes this suppressed clipper thing. Great stuff happen'.

 

Tom buddy. I thought this be the winter Chi-town would bust out of it's recent snowless winter funk. Who pulled the plug on that idea??

It's been a winter where the fun has been spread out.  In year's past, we were lucky to get hit with big storms while areas nearby continuously missed out.  If you look at this winter, in general, our Sub has shared in the wealth but it ain't over till its over.  I'm eye balling a couple big ones this month that could take a good track and then when we flip the calendar into March.  Still holding out hope for a big one this season.

[Clinton]

18z Euro...still suggesting a juicy wave on Friday with temps holding in the mid/upper 10's!  #PowderDayFriday

 

I could see this wave ending up being a warning snow around the KC region into MO.

I couldn't ask for a better track.  It would be a nice way to start off the snow train.

[jaster220]

It's been a winter where the fun has been spread out.  In year's past, we were lucky to get hit with big storms while areas nearby continuously missed out.  If you look at this winter, in general, our Sub has shared in the wealth but it ain't over till its over.  I'm eye balling a couple big ones this month that could take a good track and then when we flip the calendar into March.  Still holding out hope for a big one this season.

 

Yeah, but you always hold out hope. Guess I would too if he kept slapping me in the face!

[OmahaSnowFan]

[East Dubzz]

While I know you guys are joking, the signs, if anything, point to that system sliding too far south of you guys, not too far north. At least the first wave.

[bud2380]

Gfs with a nice 3-5” for eastern Iowa Sunday.

[Tom]

00z GFS...

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

While I know you guys are joking, the signs, if anything, point to that system sliding too far south of you guys, not too far north. At least the first wave.

At this rate it's either we get bullseyed, or snow-starved Central Nebraska gets bullseyed. I wouldn't mind either scenario tbh, I'm actually starting to feel bad for Clint and CentNeb.

[jcwxguy]

Should know before long what the euro holds for first wave

[jcwxguy]

Wave 1

[jcwxguy]

Wave 2 seems north or not as strong

[jcwxguy]

Both waves

[clintbeed1993]

At this rate it's either we get bullseyed, or snow-starved Central Nebraska gets bullseyed. I wouldn't mind either scenario tbh, I'm actually starting to feel bad for Clint and CentNeb.

 

Thanks.  I had to block Craig from messaging me on Facebook because of this absolute screwjob I've been in ALL WINTER.

[Tom]

00z GEFS/EPS pretty much in general agreement through the weekend...

[Tom]

00z Euro...came in a little weaker with the 2nd wave on Sunday around the MW/GL's...

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings has a forecaster (not sure if he or she is new) that gives great details and information that has been really lacking during the winter imo.  Must be from the area as they give details of weather patterns and how they affect this region.  I get on them sometimes so I wanted to make sure I give credit where credit is due.  NWS Hastings thinks we have a lot of winter left.  Plus it sounds like the forecaster loves snow.  Yea.  Really good read gabel23 and clint.

 

 

Big picture: cannot stress enough that this longwave pattern
remains favorable for producing a significant snowstorm over the
next 2 wks (6+ inches). While nothing big is envisioned thru Tue
Feb 19...we will cont to keep an eye for something to come out of
the wrn trof and lift NE toward the gtlks. This pattern has
produced a lot of major snowfalls in Nebraska/Kansas over the yrs. Suggest
not letting our guard down. We've had it easy so far this winter.
The pattern has finally shifted in our favor. Let's see if it can
produce. 

[Niko]

Keep hope alive for either wave.

[bud2380]

6z GFS coming in stronger.

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

This NAM run is HI-LARIOUS. Literally has the band hitting a wall of dry air right on the Lancaster county line, giving us near nothing. I'll post pics when the run is over.

[Clinton]

This NAM run is HI-LARIOUS. Literally has the band hitting a wall of dry air right on the Lancaster county line, giving us near nothing. I'll post pics when the run is over.

Does the same thing for me. 2 runs in a row.  Hope it's not going to be the trend.

[CentralNebWeather]

This NAM run is HI-LARIOUS. Literally has the band hitting a wall of dry air right on the Lancaster county line, giving us near nothing. I'll post pics when the run is over.

06 NAM was a nothing and now the 12Z has really dried out from the 0Z.  Will be interesting to see the other 12Z models.  Locally saying 1-4" or 2-5" and 1-3" for the Saturday wave and not sure about the one early next week.  Lots of moving parts.

[snowstorm83]

I was about to come on here and tell everyone not to look at the NAM. Too late! lol

[Clinton]

^{12z NAM as bad as it gets}

[CentralNebWeather]

The 12Z 3km NAM puts a little snow down through Central Nebraska but it dries out further east.  Hopefully just NAM is just one model and not a trend.