2/14-2/17 Possible Winter Storm Train

[jcwxguy]

06 euro

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z ICON puts a swath of 2-5" and maybe a little more from many points in Nebraska through the KC region, not so much for Eastern Nebraska, however.   Looks similar to other models and quite different than the much drier NAM.  With be interesting to see the GFS, CMC and Euro 12Z.  NWS says it will be a dry, fluffy snow with little wind and ratios of 20:1 to 25:1.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z RGEM at 48 Hours looks really promising, though that is as far out as it goes.

[jcwxguy]

12z GFS wave 1

[East Dubzz]

GFS showing some nice advisory level snows across most of Iowa on Sunday.

[Tom]

12z GFS with the 2nd wave came in a bit farther north....nice Lehs/LES signal showing up also for SE WI/NE IL...

 

[jcwxguy]

Wave 2

[james1976]

Nice run. I need 3" to hit my season avg.

[Minny_Weather]

And I posted yesterday saying that dry air wouldn't be a problem. I'm gonna just go and curl up in a ball now.

 

This is about as poor of a sounding as we can possibly get, holy .

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Clinton]

12Z CMC is almost non stop snow

[East Dubzz]

Curious... anyone know what’s considered a deep layer of dendritic grow?

 

Looking at soundings, I know what the DGZ zone is, but I’m not as sure about what would be considered deep layered DGZ for good dendrite growth. I’ve tried to search the interwebs, but no luck thus far.

[Tony]

12z GFS with the 2nd wave came in a bit farther north....nice Lehs/LES signal showing up also for SE WI/NE IL...

 

Something is wrong here as it does not show any ice around these parts!

[bud2380]

Ukie coming in hot.

 

[jcwxguy]

Euro wave 1

[jcwxguy]

Wave 2

[jcwxguy]

Both waves

[CentralNebWeather]

Euro wave 1

Always appreciate you posting the Euro maps and others.  Thanks

[snowstorm83]

It's Euro/Ukie/kinda GFS vs. NAM. Usually it's the opposite and NAM is too wet. Overall not too much change since NAM was barely in range yesterday. It will be really disappointing if NAM is leading the way. 

[Minny_Weather]

Didn't NAM lead the charge last storm? Yikes.

[East Dubzz]

Didn't NAM lead the charge last storm? Yikes.

Just on the WWA surge. It didn’t handle the storm well at all besides that.

[Minny_Weather]

Just on the WWA surge. It didn’t handle the storm well at all besides that.

If I remember it was the first one to signal dry air for here. Either that or long range HRRR, I forget which.

[East Dubzz]

If I remember it was the first one to signal dry air for here. Either that or long range HRRR, I forget which.

I can’t remember that for sure. Just know it didn’t really perform that well overall. Just happened to be basically the only model to pick up on the WWA surge here, so I guess it was good for something.

[gosaints]

I can’t remember that for sure. Just know it didn’t really perform that well overall. Just happened to be basically the only model to pick up on the WWA surge here, so I guess it was good for something.

No model nailed it.

 

NAM was definetly better overall than the GFS.  Euro was ok.  Ukie was ok.  NAM nailed the ice potential.  

[East Dubzz]

No model nailed it.

 

NAM was definetly better overall than the GFS. Euro was ok. Ukie was ok. NAM nailed the ice potential.

Yeah true. Each model seemed to have some issues. Though that storm is a little more complex than this one.

 

That said, it’s tough to really ever use how one model did on one storm to predict the next one. Maybe if one model has consistently been outperforming the others, but I haven’t seen that yet this winter. Each model has had their good and bad storms.

[gosaints]

Yeah true. Each model seemed to have some issues. Though that storm is a little more complex than this one.

 

That said, it’s tough to really ever use how one model did on one storm to predict the next one. Maybe if one model has consistently been outperforming the others, but I haven’t seen that yet this winter. Each model has had their good and bad storms.

Thats totally true we use the last storm to make our case for the next storm all to often.  

[Niko]

Its looking a lot better.

[Jaycee]

[Niko]

 

I think I like this....

[Minny_Weather]

Is chicagodome becoming a thing?! Starting to think I’m the culprit, as Nebraska only gets buried now that I’m gone lol

Not all of Nebraska, Norfolk only has 12" on the year! 

[BrianJK]

[CentralNebWeather]

Not all of Nebraska, Norfolk only has 12" on the year! 

I am around 27" for snowfall for as bad as the last 6 weeks has been.  I did not realize the Nebraska snow magnet was that low.  gable23 is southwest of there and he has had it bad also.   You never know from year to year.  

[FV-Mike]

Last year we had 1 week of winter weather. This year we had 2 (so far). So things are actually trending better. Sad, but true.

 

If 35 inches of snow by 2/13 is considered 2 weeks of winter I will take it every year

[CentralNebWeather]

18Z NAM through 51 hours has a decent snow for Western and Central Nebraska but appears to hit a wall as it moves towards the east.  I will see how the rest looks.

[CentralNebWeather]

Hour 57, NAM moisture virtually disappears.

[gabel23]

I am around 27" for snowfall for as bad as the last 6 weeks has been.  I did not realize the Nebraska snow magnet was that low.  gable23 is southwest of there and he has had it bad also.   You never know from year to year.  

I'm at 15" for the year; been riding the line in all directions for every storm so far. Looks like the one coming in for the weekend will be another one; as of today my area will be missed just to the east with the heaviest axis of snow. Long ways to go yet; I don't care if I only get an inch or two just cover the darn grass with white before the cold settles in!!! 

[jcwxguy]

18z nam

[CentralNebWeather]

2nd wave at hour 75 on 18Z NAM 12km blowing up snow across most of Nebraska.

[jcwxguy]

3km 18z nam

[Minny_Weather]

Second wave on NAM. Still snowing for most at hr 84. Snow winding down in Eastern Nebraska, just starting in Central Iowa.