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March 16-17th- Enough snow to drown a Leprechaun


Madtown

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GFS has an interesting take for KC. Temps soar to 65 or so Thursday, thunderstorms Thursday evening over to a some heavy sleet over to snow. Possibly 1-3 inches of it with some good wind and temps falling to 18 by Friday morning. That would be quite impressive and a great way to finish a frustrating winter.

This storm per the LRC hit around Jan. 25th, KC had 1-3 inches of wet snow while the heaviest snow fell east of here up to Michigan. Anybody remember that, we had a storm thread. 51 days ago come Thursday/Friday this week. 

Is the GFS falling right into the same track that happened 51 days ago?? 

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Euro is currently heading in the direction of the GEM. If the previous storm is anything to go by, the GFS will be the last to catch on to the correct solution.

trend-ecmwf_full-2023031312-f117.snku_acc-imp.us_nc.gif

This is not a powerful closed off low at the 500 level.  Most likely in for alot of sways in outcome up to the event.  

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Apparently the forecaster from oax who wrote the disco today forgot the NWS doesn’t issue blizzard watches anymore….

While it`s too soon to issue any type of winter storm watch (or
possibly blizzard watch), we will continue to highlight the
Thursday wintry weather potential through the hazardous weather
outlook, a DSS packet on our webpage, and through social media
channels.
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It doesn't matter what the GFS/EURO/CMC and everything else show for DMX-- they plain just go with "accumulations less than 1/2" possible" for DSM Metro -- no matter what - even with egg on their face from this past weekend. They are in total winter fatigue...

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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48 minutes ago, Madtown said:

0z Euro, let the downward trend begin.

Euro has been crap at this time frame of late. It's on outlier at this range. Euro caved at about hr 42 last event in IA. I'd expect pretty much the same thing.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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NWS discussion this morning for KC....interesting

Models hint at a TROWAL developing, allowing cold and
moist air to mix down to the surface behind the front, providing
blustery conditions and rapidly dropping temperatures behind the
front. What this also means for us this the chance for snow showers
and possible blizzard-like conditions Thursday evening into Friday
morning as this system exits. Forecast confidence in this scenario
is low, however with the DGZ saturated, given adequate lift, and
model soundings showing a completely below freezing thermodynamic
profile, we can`t rule out the chance for some snow with this
system
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47 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

A jump to the NW on the latest NAM.

trend-nam-2023031418-f078.snku_acc-imp.us_nc.gif

Makes the most sense to me as the actual solution for how this system will track. We got missed by the heavy snow to the east last week, we might as well get missed to the north and west again this week.

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Totally ready.  I’ll be begging for it in July so bring on the rain and cool temps.  
We have rain tomorrow and 68* forecast. May not make that.

I know this is the Midwest section but Holy Smoke, California!

12 feet of snow and non stop rain.  

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/california-atmospheric-river-flood-rain-sierra-snow-roofalanche-concerns

 

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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High today 68.  It’s been generally a chilly week. 
Change in the air though.

We’re looking for a High of 75 tomorrow and rain/thunderstorms.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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32 minutes ago, Tom said:

The trails up near Hurley and W U.P. are going to do very good...

Trails are fantastic right now. Road routes take a hit on sunny days, but this will make for a dare I stay epic weekend. Super low traffic, cold and flat trails, won't get any better this Sat Sunday 

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12z Euro... pretty strung out and weak, and has a secondary stripe of light accumulation farther southeast like the Canadian.

image.thumb.png.bfbc250abb5200884af719779a614b68.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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