2/19 - 2/20 Southern Plains/GL's Cutter

[Tom]

12z GFS...IA magnet in full effect...

 

[Tom]

12z FV3....

 

[james1976]

Amazing pattern. Wow

[St Paul Storm]

Lovin’ it! Keep dat train rolling.

[Jaycee]

[Tom]

12z Canadian...a little farther SE than the GFS but still showing a healthy winter storm...

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Hell I'd take 4" from this. Too bad we're still 2.5 days out and totals have had the tendency to decrease here as we get closer to the event. One thing I do have going for me is that both of the last couple storms have ended up SW of model guidance, so I'd rather be on the Western edge of higher totals (like I am now) than the bullseye.

 

Also, the Canadian is off its rocker.

[Niko]

This one is looking like it wants to ice again, after receiving a couple of inches of snow. Theme of Winter I guess. Hopefully, it changes its track and provides more snow, instead of a slopfest.

[Hawkeye]

The FV3 keeps the main snow band west of CR/IC.  The euro has been trending that way a little, too.

 

The 12z UK has the best precip right through central/eastern Iowa.  It drops about 0.60" on Cedar Rapids.

[jcwxguy]

12z euro

[NH4NU]

18z NAM still looks good for the eastern 1/3's of Nebraska. 5"+ for both Lincoln & Omaha

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019021718&fh=78&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_c&p=snku_acc&m=nam

 

 

OAX update 23 min ago has Omaha forecasted for 4-6” Tuesday night into Wed. Wonder if they will pull trigger on WSWatch.

[St Paul Storm]

18z NAM. Really liking the trends with this one.

[Tony]

Not trending in our favor this way...oh well

[St Paul Storm]

Hatin’ it! Make it stop

Congrats to you guys up there though! I bet the glacier in Minnesota must be pretty amazing right now

Thanks! It’s been an amazing February so far, no doubt. You guys will get whacked down there again. Long ways to go this winter!

[Clinton]

RGEM and NAM very similar through hr.54

[Minny_Weather]

Dry air is gonna be a problem with this one. With the thunderstorm potential in Dixie Alley there's no way it isn't. That's not something the models are really gonna pick up on, though.

[Cfweather]

I don’t know how to post the map- but DMX going with 6-8 for the whole middle of the state- They said high end advisory or low end warning- they haven’t decided yet

[Money]

Dry air is gonna be a problem with this one. With the thunderstorm potential in Dixie Alley there's no way it isn't. That's not something the models are really gonna pick up on, though.

What?

[Hawkeye]

Des Moines is pretty much just using the same snow graphic from the current system.  They are nearly exact.

 

[St Paul Storm]

Dry air is gonna be a problem with this one. With the thunderstorm potential in Dixie Alley there's no way it isn't. That's not something the models are really gonna pick up on, though.

You mean like latent heat release from the storms down south, and that it might rob us of moisture up north?

[GDR]

You have to like the wording Heavy Snow

[Iowawx]

GFS still looks really good here for this storm. 

[Minny_Weather]

What?

 

 

You mean like latent heat release from the storms down south, and that it might rob us of moisture up north?

Yeah that's it^. I didn't know the terminology of it. I'm more worried because I look to be on the edge of this thing. I'm thinking you should be fine atm. Obviously things change though.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS is a bit weaker with the totals (expected) and ever so slightly East.

[NH4NU]

18z GFS-FV3 gives Omaha and Lincoln 7" -- Central Iowa 10-12"+ 

 

18z GFS has Oma/Lnk at 5-6"  -- Central Iowa 8"+ 

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019021718&fh=72&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

[snowstorm83]

I think we're good for this one. EPS mean is nearly 4", one member under 2" and 2 members over 6". Since that's 10:1 ratios, I think 4-6" is a good call. 

[james1976]

Love it. This is amazing parade of storms for IA.

[dubuque473]

DVN has me at 3” so far..

[jcwxguy]

18z euro, take away what's showing in the 2nd map

[NH4NU]

Actually an inch improvement from 12z here in eastern sarpy county lining up more with GFS attm

[jcwxguy]

Actually an inch improvement from 12z here in eastern sarpy county lining up more with GFS attm

also nice to know it's a 10:1 map

[jaster220]

I don't remember my Jan of '14 being as non-stop as what you Neb and Iowa peeps have going right now. It must've been tho, for me to score 43" here and that was with a rainer thrown in even. Just amazing how dull it seems here standing on the sidelines watching the real game ongoing just to my west. Congrats Plains. Congrats Plains. Congrats Plains. 

 

There, that should cover the next (3) events we're tracking..

[Minny_Weather]

I don't remember my Jan of '14 being as non-stop as what you Neb and Iowa peeps have going right now. It must've been tho, for me to score 43" here and that was with a rainer thrown in even. Just amazing how dull it seems here standing on the sidelines watching the real game ongoing just to my west. Congrats Plains. Congrats Plains. Congrats Plains. 

 

There, that should cover the next (3) events we're tracking..

I feel for ya! I've had a soft spot for Michigan weather-wise for a while cuz my grandmother is from C MI. But hey, now you know how it feels when you cash in and we're the lame zone 

[jaster220]

I feel for ya! I've had a soft spot for Michigan weather-wise for a while cuz my grandmother is from C MI. But hey, now you know how it feels when you cash in and we're the lame zone 

 

yeah, my same thought, lol.  NO WAY I could deal with your blowing dust advisories tho. We've been so fortunate here most of this young century that just getting the Ohio treatment has been bad enough! 

[Minny_Weather]

yeah, my same thought, lol.  NO WAY I could deal with your blowing dust advisories tho. We've been so fortunate here most of this young century that just getting the Ohio treatment has been bad enough! 

Blowing dust advisories can be kinda cool in April when neither snow nor severe wx are really expected. Kinda gives the sky a brownish tint. But yeah it's ******* awful in January.

[dubuque473]

Now DVN has us for 5” Wednesday.

[clintbeed1993]

New NAM is pretty nice for many.  So thankful to finally have an active pattern in my location.  It was a tough 2 months to stomach but this is making up for it.

[NH4NU]

Let's lock that baby in! Great run for E. Nebraska 

[Jaycee]

Congratulations Nebraska! You guys deserve it after the past decade. Just wish I didn’t leave when this happened!

[East Dubzz]

So who deserves this storm? I haven’t kept tabs on whose turn it is to deserve the snow.