February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Deweydog]

Oh, and the Cascades block the cold from the other side.

 

(It really is comical when you think about it).

Looks like I’m gonna be spending my President’s Day doing touch up painting and shopping realtors.

[snow_wizard]

Arctic air day 7 on the ECMWF!

 

Also...the WRF shows a few shots of lowland snow over the next week and pretty much everyone gets at least one shot.  The big MO is on our side right now.

[Deweydog]

Nice!!!

[Deweydog]

Anyone have access to the Seattle forecast disco?

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the 00Z ECMWF for next weekend... focuses on the same lowland spots as the mid-week system.

 

 

 

It shows highs in the low 40s on each day from Saturday - Monday for all of western WA... and a little warmer down in Oregon.  

[HighlandExperience]

[snow_wizard]

The run to run consistency on the models is awful right now, but some form of cold is nearly a lock for the weekend with a decent shot at some snow.  I have been feeling it for the weekend event for a couple of day now.  Right now keeping it cold is number one, but I certainly want more snow also.

[snow_wizard]

I’d feel better if the EURO showed blue over King County

 

We just never know those details this far ahead of time.  My biggest fear was this event ending with a gross mess.  Right now that looks less likely.

[Phil]

Looks like I’m gonna be spending my President’s Day doing touch up painting and shopping realtors.

Rumor has it a ridgetop estate in North Bend will be on the market soon. It’s the rainiest, snowiest, cloudiest, sunniest, and warmest place in the state of Washington. Also, it’s the only place on Earth where snow/ice start building in 40 degree air. However, the lack of 95+ degree heat and sunburns could be hazardous to your health..it’s driven the current occupant to a remote volcanic island in the tropics, thousands of miles from the nearest continent. Be warned.

[BLI snowman]

Total snow per the 00Z ECMWF for next weekend... focuses on the same lowland spots as the mid-week system.

 

 

 

 

It shows highs in the low 40s on each day from Saturday - Monday for all of western WA... and a little warmer down in Oregon.  

 

 

Similar to the GFS. Kind of chilly but nothing remotely significant. 

[Deweydog]

Rumor has it a ridgetop estate in North Bend will be on the market soon. It’s the rainiest, snowiest, cloudiest, sunniest, and warmest place in the state of Washington. Also, it’s the only place on Earth where snow/ice start building in 40 degree air. However, the lack of 95+ degree heat and sunburns could be hazardous to your health..it’s driven the current occupant to a remote volcanic island thousands of miles from the nearest continent. Be warned.

Something tells me it’s a teency over budget. Maybe we’ll strategically wait it out until the area starts to glaciate by 2022 or so.

[TT-SEA]

I’d feel better if the EURO showed blue over King County. TT can you post WA state map?

 

Looks like we get heavy shadow

 

 

I think its just too warm... as previous runs showed.    It stays above freezing during the weekend when there is precip... 41/35 on Saturday and 41/33 on Sunday at SEA.     Then it clears out Sunday night and Monday its 41/28 on Monday.

[snow_wizard]

Now this is pretty nuts.  Talk about the Pacific being shut down at day 10. 

 

 

[Deweydog]

Similar to the GFS. Kind of chilly but nothing remotely significant.

What happened to the down vote option???

[TT-SEA]

Rumor has it a ridgetop estate in North Bend will be on the market soon. It’s the rainiest, snowiest, cloudiest, sunniest, and warmest place in the state of Washington. Also, it’s the only place on Earth where snow/ice start building in 40 degree air. However, the lack of 95+ degree heat and sunburns could be hazardous to your health..it’s driven the current occupant to a remote volcanic island in the tropics, thousands of miles from the nearest continent. Be warned.

 

We love it there!   

 

We love Hawaii too.   

[snow_wizard]

I think its just too warm... as previous runs showed.    It stays above freezing during the weekend when there is precip... 41/35 on Saturday and 41/33 on Sunday at SEA.     Then it clears out Sunday night and Monday its 41/28 on Monday.

 

I just feel way better about the pattern than you are making it sound.  No matter how you slice it we get cold continental air in here next weekend on this ECMWF run.  850s drop to -9.  Even if the highs briefly reach around 40 the majority of the time will be below freezing.  Maybe I'm letting the 500mb look color my opinion too much, but it looks like a good pattern overall.  We then come out of it with dry weather, seasonable highs, and cold nights.  Works for me.

[BLI snowman]

What happened to the down vote option???

 

I'm talking cold-spell smack and I'm not even in Hawaii right now.

[Jesse]

Similar to the GFS. Kind of chilly but nothing remotely significant.

At least it’s moving away from the cutoff solution and keeping the northern branch in charge. I liked the increased number of GFS ensemble members showing arctic air.

[TT-SEA]

Now this is pretty nuts.  Talk about the Pacific being shut down at day 10. 

 

00Z ECMWF looks like EPS at day 10.      

 

[snow_wizard]

To me the ECMWF looks good.  It spits out lows below 20 for some early next week.  Talk about wet blankets on here tonight.

[James Jones]

Similar to the GFS. Kind of chilly but nothing remotely significant. 

 

The way this is playing out down here reminds me a lot of July 2018. Long duration of low end heat/low end chill but with no individual days being particularly impressive on its own merits. 

 

Different story up north of course where it's been an amazing month.

[snow_wizard]

At least it’s moving away from the cutoff solution and keeping the northern branch in charge. I liked the increased number of GFS ensemble members showing arctic air.

 

This Euro run shows a Fraser River Arctic outbreak.  The surface pressure signature is classic.  I don't know how people are seeing this so wrong.

[Jesse]

Clear and down to 30 here now.

 

#mattwaswrong

[Phil]

00Z ECMWF looks like EPS at day 10.

 

Baffin Island B*tch trying to come back.

[snow_wizard]

The way this is playing out down here reminds me a lot of July 2018. Long duration of low end heat/low end chill but with no individual days being particularly impressive on its own merits. 

 

Different story up north of course where it's been an amazing month.

 

Good point.  Justin may have been referring to Oregon.  It even looks decently cold for you though.

[snow_wizard]

Love how Tim posts day 10 when the pretty stuff is at day 7. 

[TT-SEA]

I just feel way better about the pattern than you are making it sound.  No matter how you slice it we get cold continental air in here next weekend on this ECMWF run.  850s drop to -9.  Even if the highs briefly reach around 40 the majority of the time will be below freezing.  Maybe I'm letting the 500mb look color my opinion too much, but it looks like a good pattern overall.  We then come out of it with dry weather, seasonable highs, and cold nights.  Works for me.

 

Just for clarification... the ECMWF shows it above freezing from Friday night until Sunday night in the Seattle area even at night.     I think you might be letting the colors influence you.  

 

Here is what the 500mb looked like yesterday afternoon and it did not snow...

 

[BLI snowman]

Good point.  Justin may have been referring to Oregon.  It even looks decently cold for you though.

 

850s bottom out around -10c in extreme northeastern WA on the Euro. -7c for Seattle and Portland. That's not an appreciable arctic airmass by any means and not appreciably different than what we're seeing right now. There's no other way to frame that.

[TT-SEA]

Love how Tim posts day 10 when the pretty stuff is at day 7. 

 

 

I am not posting that map related to snow chances... I already posted the snow maps for this week and coming weekend.

 

I am also interested in the EPS in the long range and I see agreement at day 10 on the operational.     I am feeling pretty confident that ridging will be building in as we go into March... and we will finally see a real pattern change. 

[Deweydog]

I'm talking cold-spell smack and I'm not even in Hawaii right now.

The southern Oregon coast will have the climate of Hawaii in 12 years so there’s that...

[Deweydog]

Just for clarification... the ECMWF shows it above freezing from Friday night until Sunday night in the Seattle area even at night. I think you might be letting the colors influence you.

 

Here is what the 500mb looked like yesterday afternoon and it did not snow...

 

Snowed here last night for a few minutes!

[TT-SEA]

Snowed here last night for a few minutes!

 

Nice!!!  

[BLI snowman]

The way this is playing out down here reminds me a lot of July 2018. Long duration of low end heat/low end chill but with no individual days being particularly impressive on its own merits. 

 

Different story up north of course where it's been an amazing month.

 

A quick plunge and back to torching would have been better, IMO.

[BLI snowman]

I am not posting that map related to snow chances... I already posted the snow maps for this week and coming weekend.

 

I am also interested in the EPS in the long range and I see agreement at day 10 on the operational.     I am feeling pretty confident that ridging will be building in as we go into March... and we will finally see a real pattern change. 

 

Seems like pretty common sense, at this point. Going on 3 weeks of the same general pattern.

[TT-SEA]

So am I required to only post maps for periods when there is a chance of snow?   Is there other weather to track?    Because I am here all year long and track all the weather as it comes.

 

Can I post maps that interest me in terms of where the pattern is going and simultaneously track snow and cold?      

[Deweydog]

Warm ups after cool downs....

[TT-SEA]

Warm ups after cool downs....

 

 

This pattern has been downright fascinating.     Interested to see where it goes next.  

[Deweydog]

So am I required to only post maps for periods when there is a chance of snow? Is there other weather to track? Because I am here all year long and track all the weather as it comes.

 

Can I post maps that interest me in terms of where the pattern is going and simultaneously track things other than just snow and cold?

You have a very tough life.

[Phil]

I am not posting that map related to snow chances... I already posted the snow maps for this week and coming weekend.

 

I am also interested in the EPS in the long range and I see agreement at day 10 on the operational. I am feeling pretty confident that ridging will be building in as we go into March... and we will finally see a real pattern change.

I don’t know. While the first 2 weeks of March might be ridgy in the West with a Hudson Bay vortex, I’m not sure it will stay that way this time. We could easily be looking at a +NAM/+EPO/jet extension during the second half of March that hoses the west in a November-like fashion.

 

This is looking less and less like 2018 by the day. I was worried about a blast furnace spring and summer a month ago, but now I’m seeing signs it might be avoided for the most part. The z-cell structure is so much better for a moisture tap this year.

[Deweydog]

This pattern has been downright fascinating. Interested to see where it goes next.

Feels like it is more than just your run of the mill evolution. I picture the landlord from Kingpin telling Woody Harrelson about how he’d managed to jar something loose.

 

Seems like a continuation of cool seems like a good bet well into spring. Lots of low clouds for July. Beware!