February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[MossMan]

Volatility?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wonder where the February PNA number will come in.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 90 the GFS has the low about 150-200 miles south of its 12z run. May come down to how cold the gorge/basin is.

[Requiem]

At hour 90 the GFS has the low about 150-200 miles south of its 12z run. May come down to how cold the gorge/basin is.

The basin and Gorge already have decent snowcover, and they are forecast to stay decently cold. It’s getting that offshore flow that I’m hoping for.

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS is a bit further south, a bit colder as a result and the low might be a bit stronger too. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Jim little

An interesting tidbit about Jim was that he was the only Met to work at all 4 major news stations at PDX as a regular. I think he's still the only one.

[Perturbed Member]

[foggymemory]

Hey all! First post but I’m at the PDX airport right now and can report thunder, lightning, and accumulating hail within the last 15 minutes. Totally unexpected!

[Requiem]

Juicy. I like the cold east wind signature, should be great especially since the basin is already decently cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At face value you would think this is a setup that would not suck...

 

[Jesse]

At hour 90 the GFS has the low about 150-200 miles south of its 12z run. May come down to how cold the gorge/basin is.

Well it’s been about as snowy and frigid as it gets over there for this late in the season recently. And that doesn’t look to change by much over the next 5-7 days. I’m sure that could/will help.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

2-19-93 redux...

[BLI snowman]

18z. I like.

[Perturbed Member]

Yum

[FroYoBro]

18z. I like.

 

Snow. Me. Good.

[Jesse]

18z. I like.

Yeah. Pretty sexy. Hoping it isn’t a tease this time.

[Perturbed Member]

FV3 is way south

 

 

[Requiem]

Yum

Very yummy. Only hope that there can be a little more coverage throughout the valley.

[Geos]

I was out in Woodinville this morning east of downtown and they are really hanging onto the snow cover really well. Sitting at 38* this morning, after a low of 30*.

 

Too much snow shadow in those maps. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well it’s been about as snowy and frigid as it gets over there for this late in the season recently. And that doesn’t look to change by much over the next 5-7 days. I’m sure that could/will help.

 

18z GFS is a great run for NW Oregon. Not even paying attention to the snow maps, which are great from about Salem-north, it just has loads of potential for NW Oregon/SW WA. Sure it could go a little north and leave EUG or SLE out, or stay south and miss PDX, but a few days out and we have the potential for a big hit, or a big whiff.

[Jesse]

FV3 is way south

 

 

I’m liking that. Keep the ridiculous southward runs coming since we all know there will probably be a last minute northward trend in the final 2-3 days leading up to the event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What we've been missing is a true AR event...

 

[Timmy]

18z GFS is a great run for NW Oregon. Not even paying attention to the snow maps, which are great from about Salem-north, it just has loads of potential for NW Oregon/SW WA. Sure it could go a little north and leave EUG or SLE out, or stay south and miss PDX, but a few days out and we have the potential for a big hit, or a big whiff.

huge kick in the crotch to the 12z

[Deweydog]

SCORE!

[Requiem]

What we've been missing is a true AR event...

 

Didn’t we have one back in December?

[BLI snowman]

Yeah. Pretty sexy. Hoping it isn’t a tease this time.

 

At least we're looking to have wiggle room this time. 

[jakerepp]

Hey all! First post but I’m at the PDX airport right now and can report thunder, lightning, and accumulating hail within the last 15 minutes. Totally unexpected!

 

Are you sure you've remembered all that correctly? 

[Jesse]

I have a decent view to the NW along the river from my office and I can see the dark clouds slowly building towards the south. These days can be pretty fun. They should also die off and dissipate after sunset so hopefully we can have some midnight lows.

Missed this earlier. Yeah, definitely looks like we could see some quick clearing around sunset with the mid levels drying out nicely. Maybe PDX could score another freeze by 12am.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m liking that. Keep the ridiculous southward runs coming since we all know there will probably be a last minute northward trend in the final 2-3 days leading up to the event.

 

ICON and FV-3 are south. 12z CFS looked a lot like the GEM. 

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS is a great run for NW Oregon. Not even paying attention to the snow maps, which are great from about Salem-north, it just has loads of potential for NW Oregon/SW WA. Sure it could go a little north and leave EUG or SLE out, or stay south and miss PDX, but a few days out and we have the potential for a big hit, or a big whiff.

 

Yep but a good step in the right direction, seems like the models are starting to get decent agreement on undercutting and agreeing that early next week we will get some juicy low that will show up somewhere between the central OR to north cal coast and produce cool enough offshore flow to possibly give some lowland snow somewhere under 120 hrs from now. 

[Esquimalt]

FV3 is way south

 

 

Wow FV3 looks amazing for my area from Sunday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS gets all 19th Century on is for the first week of March.

 

[Jesse]

CFS gets all 19th Century on is for the first week of March.

 

The EPS at day 10 hinted that the GOA ridge might not be going anywhere in the long term, keeping things relatively suppressed for us.

[Jesse]

Hey all! First post but I’m at the PDX airport right now and can report thunder, lightning, and accumulating hail within the last 15 minutes. Totally unexpected!

Awesome!!

[HighlandExperience]

I was out in Woodinville this morning east of downtown and they are really hanging onto the snow cover really well. Sitting at 38* this morning, after a low of 30*.

 

Too much snow shadow in those maps.

Yup lots of snow on the ground still in east king county.

[Deweydog]

Sunny here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The EPS at day 10 hinted that the GOA ridge might not be going anywhere in the long term, keeping things relatively suppressed for us.

 

CFS is interesting in that it has been pretty consistent with a suppressed jet through the first 7-10 days of March, and then some flat ridging which pushes the jet north for a few days of zonal flow before dryng out, and then a return to typical cold spring troughing around St. Patrick's Day.

[Bryant]

Jeez... models show Whatcom County getting left out again!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sarcasm...

[Requiem]

Snow levels will progressively drop Sunday through Tuesday which

will bring snow into the Cascades and northern Coast Range. Monday

night into Tuesday may bring snow to the low elevations in the

northern portion of the forecast area and possibly a rain-snow mix

in the Portland-Metro area however high temperatures will stay in

the mid-40s which won`t allow for any sticking to occur.

&&

 

NWS Portland’s take on things. Considering last discussion they were calling for seasonal weather through next week, this is a definite improvement!

[Christensen87]

18z GFS creeps some of that cold air back into our neck of the woods next weekend, along with a nice little snowstorm. We know really cold air will be pushing south toward the central U.S. next weekend, it's just a matter of how much will sneak into our area.