February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Requiem]

I mean, I would just love a Willamette Valley snow scent. Maybe just an inch or two.

[Bryant]

Bryant and Brennan are going to do very well over the next week.

I'd be shocked if it trends that far north, but I appreciate your enthusiasm

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Mouth of the Columbia...Book it.

North.

I say the mouth of the Alsea but I'll split the difference with you and we'll go with the mouth of the Nestucca.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Trendingsideways.

[Deweydog]

Watching Seattle get puked on with snow while I sat high and dry humbled me. I've made the most of the winter we got, but if there is a chance on the horizon, of course I'd love to see more.

Sending good vibes from central Clark County!!!

[TacomaWaWx]

Wonder if this will be like April 2008 this winter, that was the latest in the winter I can remember seeing snow here, this winter seems like it could give us snow chances in March and April.

[GHweatherChris]

Looking forward to the inevitable northward trends the models will be showing very soon.

Called it last night!

[Perturbed Member]

Lots of members make landfall on the washington oregon border. 

 

Most of the members end up somewhere between Tillamook and Florence OR which would be a good result for PDX. I'm just waiting to see what the 00z ECMWF and EPS does with this to see if it starts to settle on this current solution or not. I would be surprised to see the models really lock down things until later Saturday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Found this intriguing. I think Sunday is the time to watch for us Southerners. 

 

In addition, models suggest a surface low will develop along the
frontal boundary Sat night. The GFS indicates the low near Florence
09Z Sun. The NAM is similar. The ECMWF has a hint of a low, but
closer to North Bend or Gold Beach. Should the NAM or GFS verify,
there would be some degree of offshore low-level flow through the
Gorge, resulting in the potential for snow near the valley floors
north of the surface low. If the baroclinic boundary ends up slightly
more north, it could result in significant snow for the Cascade
foothills and Columbia Gorge and upper Hood River Valley. There is
plenty of uncertainty from Sat night through early Mon. Thus, am not
inclined to issue any highlights at this time, other than the Winter
Storm Watch for the Oregon Cascades. Weishaar 

[Weiner Warrior]

Too warm anyway... 36 degree rain

[Omegaraptor]

I honestly am feeling a little more confident about this snow event for the Portland metro simply because of the east winds and cold air in the Columbia Basin.

 

Oh look, 384th post.

[Bryant]

Sending good vibes from central Clark County!!!

You can't deny the run you've been on the past few winters

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem is almost certainly going to hit 50 today and PDX very well could. 49 and 48 on the 3pm readings. Those late February sun angles with some down sloping should do the trick. 

[ShawniganLake]

Watching Seattle get puked on with snow while I sat high and dry humbled me. I've made the most of the winter we got, but if there is a chance on the horizon, of course I'd love to see more.

what's your monthly total at?

[ShawniganLake]

18z was nice. Multiple snow chances here, totalling more than 1 foot.

[Bryant]

what's your monthly total at?

~17". Couple smaller systems then the last one which was our main event

[Requiem]

~17". Couple smaller systems then the last one which was our main event

That’s 4 times my total :/

 

EDIT: maybe closer to 6 times.

[Bryant]

That’s 4 times my total :/

Yes, this year. What did you see last winter?

[Requiem]

Yes, this year. What did you see last winter?

9 inches, give or take.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z was nice. Multiple snow chances here, totalling more than 1 foot.

 

There is definitely going to be a pattern change as we head into March. However, I do not see a major flip to a warm dry regime or anything like that. Probably just normal March variability. 

[Bryant]

9 inches, give or take.

About double what I saw. It all averages out

[Perturbed Member]

FWIW, GEFS members

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Most of the members end up somewhere between Tillamook and Florence OR which would be a good result for PDX. I'm just waiting to see what the 00z ECMWF and EPS does with this to see if it starts to settle on this current solution or not. I would be surprised to see the models really lock down things until later Saturday.

Yeah, it will be good but hopefully the low tracks south of PDX as it heads inland and we don't get the dreaded Storm King type track.

 

http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/Jan1880EventsMapWAOR.jpg

[Guest CulverJosh]

Next vacation his wife will probably go by herself. She pretty much did this one. Lol.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS gives me an outside chance at hitting the 15" mark for precip this month. That would be very welcome. We have already clinched our first above average precip month since April 2018. 

 

[Requiem]

Yeah, it will be good but hopefully the low tracks south of PDX as it heads inland and we don't get the dreaded Storm King type track.

 

http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/Jan1880EventsMapWAOR.jpg

Ideal weather event here BTW

[TT-SEA]

Next vacation his wife will probably go by herself. She pretty much did this one. Lol.

 

You know nothing at all.   And its rude to make these comments about my marriage.   

 

I have been working during part of this trip because of staffing issues at work due to the unexpected death of an immediate family member of a co-worker and a client emergency which has tied up other resources all week.    

 

My wife has also been required to be in meetings... partly because of issues caused by the weather the last two weeks and postponements. 

[FroYoBro]

Hit 50 here. I have a feeling it did at PDX too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BREAKING NEWS

 

SLE down to 48 from a high of 49.

 

Not completely out of the woods yet, but a good sign.

[Requiem]

Hit 50 here. I have a feeling it did at PDX too.

Observations still say 49, so almost. Maybe it’ll get there soon enough.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hit 50 here. I have a feeling it did at PDX too.

 

49 on the hour. I bet they hit 50 between now and 5p.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dewpoints dropping into the low to mid 20s now. Would not be surprised to see some pretty cold lows tonight if we can stay clear.

[MossMan]

Yeah, it will be good but hopefully the low tracks south of PDX as it heads inland and we don't get the dreaded Storm King type track.

 

http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/Jan1880EventsMapWAOR.jpg

Let’s have some good old fashioned Port Townsend building crushing again!

[foggymemory]

Not an official reading or anything but I’m right next to the PDX airport and I’m currently showing a temp of 47 after peaking at 49 around 3:00pm.

[Deweydog]

You can't deny the run you've been on the past few winters

I most certainly can but I won’t.

[FroYoBro]

49 on the hour. I bet they hit 50 between now and 5p.

Well I hit my high about 45 minutes ago.

 

MAYBE THEY SURVIVED?

[ShawniganLake]

Increasing clouds here now. 43F.

[Deweydog]

#prayers4PDX

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Ideal weather event here BTW

Normally I'd agree because I love wind storms but whenever there's a chance for snow, I'll gladly pass on it.

[Requiem]

Hope is certainly not gone for PDX.