February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Perturbed Member]

As hard as it was to wrap my head around the potential of this event it is equally hard to fathom how quickly it has been ripped away. I really feel for the people in Washington County who will not see accumulating snow this winter.

Yeah I was actually starting to feel confident that my grand total this winter would no longer be 0 inches. Pretty disappointing. I hope at least a good chunk of the valley can score even if we're shafted yet again here.

[Requiem]

Thought you were taking the night off?! Now that south trend will continue...

You must be ecstatic.

[Jesse]

South is the new north!

Both are the new east!

[James Jones]

Probably not. Sorry friend. I feel terrible for you. But if you follow weather in the PNW this is going to happen every winter. Stings every time though and this is one of the worst rug pulls I have ever seen.

This post literally made me laugh out loud.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I was actually starting to feel confident that my grand total this winter would no longer be 0 inches. Pretty disappointing. I hope at least a good chunk of the valley can score even if we're shafted yet again here.

 

Unfortunately it doesn't even look like that will happen. Maybe Eugene if they can get enough cold air down that way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This post literally made me laugh out loud.

 

 

[Jesse]

Unfortunately it doesn't even look like that will happen. Maybe Eugene if they can get enough cold air down that way.

Do you actually lose all rationality every time it appears it won’t snow at your house as much as you anticipated, or is this just an elaborate troll act? Maybe a blend?

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z GFS and FV3 show almost no precip up here for the entire week... through next Sunday at least.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What happened was us Southerners wished so hard that the southern momentum got out of control and now we can't stop it! Right now I am wishing for a landfall on South Vancouver Island in a last ditch effort to will the low north!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do you actually lose all rationality every time it appears it won’t snow at your house as much as you anticipated, or is just an elaborate troll act? Maybe a blend?

 

I wouldn't call it elaborate...

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS 850mb temps on Monday afternoon... am I seeing things or does the 850mb temp map suddenly have much more resolution?

 

[MikeInEverett]

So much cold rain since last Monday!! Ready for spring.

[GHweatherChris]

So we have seen the models totally **** us inside 24 hours dozens of times, have we ever once seen the models totally flip in our favor in less than 24 hours...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00Z GFS 850mb temps on Monday afternoon... am I seeing things or does the 850mb temp suddenly have much more resolution?

 

 

2M temps big guy.

[Perturbed Member]

You know you're in some deep sh*t when the NAM is your only friend. 

[Esquimalt]

00Z GFS 850mb temps on Monday afternoon... am I seeing things or does the 850mb temp suddenly have much more resolution?

 

That’s a 2 m temp anomaly map

[wxmet]

00Z GFS 850mb temps on Monday afternoon... am I seeing things or does the 850mb temp suddenly have much more resolution?

 

 

 

Could just be the color scheme got more granular with respect to the anomalies.

[Deweydog]

So we have seen the models totally **** us inside 24 hours dozens of times, have we ever once seen the modes totally flip in our favor in less than 24 hours...

Never!!!!

 

All bad! All the time!

[Requiem]

So we have seen the models totally **** us inside 24 hours dozens of times, have we ever once seen the modes totally flip in our favor in less than 24 hours...

Well, nowhere to go but up in regards to this system!

[TT-SEA]

That’s a 2 m temp anomaly map

 

 

Ahhhhhh... my mistake.  

[Andrew.]

4km still gives pdx a few inches, especially the hills in town.

 

[Cloud]

Holy schit... i mentioned last night with the cone of uncertainty so huge that an OR/CA border landfall is a real possibility but didn’t really think it would happen. With each and every runs the models are showing this now. The trend is certainly bad for PDX but it’s not over yet and at this point, it’s too far south for central sound to even care.

 

Hopefully there is a last second hail mary for PDX.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You know you're in some deep sh*t when the NAM is your only friend. 

 

Probably the NAM's overestimation of precip.

[Deweydog]

4km still gives pdx a few inches, especially the hills in town.

 

FB_IMG_1550982736035.jpg

Seems like we might do okay tomorrow evening.

[Meatyorologist]

So we have seen the models totally **** us inside 24 hours dozens of times, have we ever once seen the models totally flip in our favor in less than 24 hours...

Yes. February 9th 2014.

[HighlandExperience]

Everyone should have rooted for the northern trend.

[FroYoBro]

As hard as it was to wrap my head around the potential of this event it is equally hard to fathom how quickly it has been ripped away. I really feel for the people in Washington County who will not see accumulating snow this winter.

 

Little early to say that, don't you think? 

[TT-SEA]

Here is some good news related to the southward trend... it might be a totally sunny day up here on Monday.  

 

[Requiem]

Little early to say that, don't you think?

Trends are not good, but models have flipped back before.

[GHweatherChris]

[Deweydog]

Here is some good news related to the southward trend... it might be a totally sunny day up here on Monday.

 

I was thinking Monday might actually be a fairly nice day at this point. Ironic considering we were watching baseball today in Happy Valley during 38 degree heavy rain while everyone spoke of how much worse Monday was gonna be.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00Z QUEEN UKMET is not backing down!

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_036_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

[Requiem]

The 00Z QUEEN UKMET is not backing down!

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_036_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

QUEEN!!!!!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

QUEEN!!!!!!

It's been very consistent and has trended ever so slightly north the last few days. Onto the 00Z KING EURO! ❄❄

[Requiem]

Nowhere to go but up, everyone. Here is the good news:

 

Precip shields to the north tend to be underplayed.

 

The GFS has shifted around before.

 

NAM and mesoscale models are trending better.

 

GEM isn’t actually that bad.

 

EPS was good (don’t know if it still is).

 

FV3 is still pretty decent.

 

There are still 24 hours left for models to trend better! (Or worse, a double-edged sword there).

 

Edit: QUEEN UKMET has also trended north!

[Omegaraptor]

What do you know... more storms in California while the dry 40s garbage in the PNW returns after this snow event that may or may not happen.

 

If it's going to be sunny, at least have temps somewhat near average, especially in March. Please. Is this March or January?

 

I can't wait for spring to come. Dump snow on Washington County and then bring mid-50s ASAP.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Watching some of you guys freak out over every model run is very entertaining. I got a few cold beers in me and am loving seeing the back and forth. You guys no drama better than TNT.

[Requiem]

Watching some of you guys freak out over every model run is very entertaining. I got a few cold beers in me and am loving seeing the back and forth. You guys no drama better than TNT.

*know

[TT-SEA]

I am starting to believe my kids are going to school every day this week.    I am celebrating the small victories!  

 

And it might actually be sunny for most of the week as well.   GFS only shows some clouds on Thursday... but lots of sun every other day through next Sunday.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Watching some of you guys freak out over every model run is very entertaining. I got a few cold beers in me and am loving seeing the back and forth. You guys no drama better than TNT.

 

You should come down to the s valley and share a beer & bong with this guy sometime!