February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Requiem]

C- is pretty harsh for a top tier cold month with near average snowfall for much of the metro.

I definitely think that this month feels so much worse because of the fact that almost everyone but PDX scored. PDX was in the bullseye for days on end before models either skipped us to the south, or to the north. For Seattle each storm seemed like a lock, advertised by the models and verifying well. I think C- is a fitting score.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, but they were the big winner in 2016-17.

 

Everyone has had their big moments in the past 3 winters.

 

This month hasn't blown the doors off in Salem by any means, but they've definitely had more snow than a lot of places on the west side of the metro and parts of Clark County. Up toward Woodburn/Wilsonville it's been pretty sparse though too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you really want to break it down...overall winter grades.

 

2018-19

 

Seattle: A

Eugene: A

Portland: B-

 

2017-18

 

Seattle: C

Eugene: D

Portland: B

 

2016-17

 

Seattle: B

Portland: A

Eugene: B+

 

Everyone averages out to a solid B for the last three winters.

 

Eugene's winter in 2017-18 was probably more like a C. They had a very chilly December, and had 2-3" of snow in Late February. Nothing earth shattering, but definitely higher than D level stuff. Salem got completely hosed last winter with probably only 1-2" across the city from several dustings in late February, and their December was not nearly as chilly as Eugene. Of course January 2018 was an F- regionally.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, but they were the big winner in 2016-17.

 

Everyone has had their big moments in the past 3 winters.

 

Yeah Salem did pretty well in 2016-17.

 

1-2" December 8th

5" December 14th followed by about a week of cold weather with snow on the ground.

December ended up I believe their 9th coldest all-time. 

1/2"-2" across the city on 1/2/17

3-5" on 1/7/17 with a high of 29

1" on 1/11/17 (Really missed out on that one!)

2" March 6th 

[HighlandExperience]

Eugene is due for no snow for another ten years.

[FroYoBro]

Eugene is due for no snow for another ten years.

 

I am going to be absolutely furious the next time it snows there.

[Jesse]

Nah, not when it comes to how often a big event or winter occurs historically. Then you're just talking about the law of averages...not that complicated or semantics riddled at all.

Yeah, but I never said we were imminently due for a 10”+ event. Moreso just for an event to tilt in our favor after a handful of near misses this season. You are injecting a different meaning into the concept of dueness then I was, mostly just for the sake of debate I’m sure. That’s where the semantics come in.

[MossMan]

Everyone is busy disputing grades and throwing rods...who cares! How’s the 18z’s looking?

[Deweydog]

I just can’t get over how he got sucked into this after taking such a smug position on dueality for so many years.

 

Over the moon with pride!!!

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, but I never said we were imminently due for a 10”+ event. Moreso just for an event to tilt in our favor after a handful of near misses this season. You are injecting a different meaning into the concept of dueness then I was, mostly just for the sake of debate I’m sure. That’s where the semantics come in.

 

Your "for the sake of debate" is my "for the sake of different perspective".

 

So much subjectivity. 

 

Anyhow, my over-arching point was just that any "dueness" at this point comes from comparing to other areas, and even then it's been about as even as you'll ever see over the past few years. Glorious time to be alive!

[chinook]

If you really want to break it down...overall winter grades.

 

2018-19

 

Seattle: A

Eugene: A

Portland: B-

 

2017-18

 

Seattle: C

Eugene: D

Portland: B

 

2016-17

 

Seattle: B

Portland: A

Eugene: B+

 

Everyone averages out to a solid B for the last three winters.

 

subjective.

 

you would need to put in inches and temperatures in place of letters.

 

i know Yamhill County...even though we have been in the mix [>2 inches] recently our last true dump was in February 2014.   Even then it was short lived...ended that event with freezing rain then just gross cold rain.

[Jesse]

Your "for the sake of debate" is my "for the sake of different perspective".

 

So much subjectivity! 

You like to argue. It’s all good. Just don’t balk when people point out the obvious. In fact you certainly have no room to complain when people do that.

[Deweydog]

Everyone is busy disputing grades and throwing rods...who cares! How’s the 18z’s looking?

We were due for a good run!

[Front Ranger]

subjective.

 

you would need to put in inches and temperatures in place of letters.

 

i know Yamhill County...even though we have been in the mix [>2 inches] recently our last true dump was in February 2014.   Even then it was short lived...ended that event with freezing rain then just gross cold rain.

 

You're right. I forgot to include a comprehensive breakdown of every county and town in the PNW lowlands. 

[Jesse]

Mark is going with highs of 38 on both Sunday and Monday with full sunshine and strong east winds. Seems that would be borderline historic for March 2-3.

[BLI snowman]

Mark is going with highs of 38 on both Sunday and Monday with full sunshine and strong east winds. Seems that would be borderline historic for March 2-3.

 

By 21st century standards, sure.

[Jesse]

By 21st century standards, sure.

I can’t think of many events in the airport era that pulled off March highs in the 30s with sunny skies and offshore flow. I realize there have been events like that going back further, though.

[Front Ranger]

You like to argue. It’s all good. Just don’t balk when people point out the obvious. In fact you certainly have no room to complain when people do that.

 

Takes two to tango, my friend. Most of the time when you think I'm seeking an argument, by offering a different perspective, you're off-base. Your responses tend to be overly defensive and argumentative, usually by defaulting to terms like "semantics".  

 

Don't assume I'm looking for an argument, and you'll find yourself arguing less with me. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark is going with highs of 38 on both Sunday and Monday with full sunshine and strong east winds. Seems that would be borderline historic for March 2-3.

 

February 2019 was the month I learned Mark Nelsen lives or dies by the EURO.

[Front Ranger]

Mark is going with highs of 38 on both Sunday and Monday with full sunshine and strong east winds. Seems that would be borderline historic for March 2-3.

 

C-

[Jesse]

[Front Ranger]

Everyone is busy disputing grades and throwing rods...who cares! How’s the 18z’s looking?

 

D+

[Jesse]

Cold and breezy day with lots of flurries around earlier. 35/27 spread so far.

[BLI snowman]

I can’t think of many events in the airport era that pulled off March highs in the 30s with sunny skies and offshore flow. I realize there have been events like that going back further, though.

 

Yeah, not in the airport era. But Portland has seen subfreezing highs in March in 1960, 1906, 1896, 1870, 1867, and 1865. Several of which featured sunshine.

 

Another real historic benchmark for our climate is April 4, 1875. Portland had a 40/32 day with east winds and dry weather. That same airmass produced sea level snow in Sacramento.

[James Jones]

Yeah, not in the airport era. But Portland has seen subfreezing highs in March in 1960, 1906, 1896, 1870, 1867, and 1865. Several of which featured sunshine.

 

Another real historic benchmark for our climate is April 4, 1875. Portland had a 40/32 day with east winds and dry weather. That same airmass produced sea level snow in Sacramento.

 

What do we know about the 1865, 1867 and 1870 events? 

[Timmy Supercell]

Just had a heavy shower move through. It hailed for 30 seconds too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just had a heavy shower move through. It hailed for 30 seconds too.

 

You will probably cool off pretty significantly tonight. Much cooler upper level airmass moving in down there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

By 21st Century standards highs in the mid-upper 30s on the 2nd to last day of February is pretty solid. 

[Timmy]

Meanwhile it’s 43f in burns with a little snow on the ground, while bend has a couple feet and 18f

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meanwhile it’s 43f in burns with a little snow on the ground, while bend has a couple feet and 18f

 

Definitely nothing to really write home about this month in SE Oregon. I thought they had a cold December, it actually ended up near normal. They had a pretty chilly November though with a -4 departure. 

[Jesse]

Meanwhile it’s 43f in burns with a little snow on the ground, while bend has a couple feet and 18f

Yeah far southeastern Oregon has been left out of the action lately. I was looking at a daily temp roundup for the state yesterday or the day before and Rome was the state warm spot.

[Timmy Supercell]

KMAX still down. That's nice

[BLI snowman]

What do we know about the 1865, 1867 and 1870 events? 

 

All were incredible events in their own right. 

 

1865 produced this stretch at Fort Vancouver, using the 8am/2pm/8pm temp data. Several of these days had measurable snowfalls as well.

 

2/28: 32/27

3/1: 24/15

3/2: 33/16

3/3: 43/30

3/4: 50/40

3/5: 54/43

3/6: 44/34 

3/7: 32/26 

3/8: 39/22

 

I touched on 1867 awhile back but it was a true freak of nature. Fort Vancouver managed five consecutive subfreezing highs between March 12-16 without any snowcover or significant cloudcover on several of those days. That included a 30/16 performance on the 13th.

 

The March 1870 airmass was very sharp and intense. An arctic front hit Portland on March 12 with snow, the 13th and 14th had subfreezing highs, and then a major overrunning snowstorm hit Portland on the 15th with 8-10" of snow.

[Deweydog]

Mark is going with highs of 38 on both Sunday and Monday with full sunshine and strong east winds. Seems that would be borderline historic for March 2-3.

Well that 28 for Monday a few weeks ago worked out pretty good...

 

41-43.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Southeastern Oregon also scored more than anyone in December 2016 and January 2017...Not to mention January 2013 was one of their coldest months on record.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If I saw Mark's 7-day in late December I would be encouraged that an acceptable stretch of winter weather with modest cold anomalies was on its way...

[Guest CulverJosh]

Radar trying to fill in back to the west in the northern valley again.   I don't see any reason why we couldn't get another inch overnight with temps dropping again.

[Deweydog]

Radar trying to fill in back to the west in the northern valley again. I don't see any reason why we couldn't get another inch overnight with temps dropping again.

East wind density has diminished greatly. Next....

[Jesse]

Well that 28 for Monday a few weeks ago worked out pretty good...

 

41-43.

 

Mark iz a dummy.

[Guest CulverJosh]

If I saw Mark's 7-day in late December I would be encouraged that an acceptable stretch of winter weather with modest cold anomalies was on its way...

 

I remember you mentioning last night about Detroit holding on to lower temps than you due to the easterly influence through Santiam Pass and such.  Just curious, do you get any of that influence Andrew?  Or is yours more of an influence from the north winds originating from the Gorge?