February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF and other models advertise several snow chances next week.  Nice looking major snow event next weekend on the ECMWF.  I would put the chances at 50% or so for another round of major cold.  Almost certain to have prolonged moderate cold at the very least.

[TT-SEA]

So...the first half of this amazing month is in the can, now we shall see what the second half brings!  While my area didn't do quite as well for total snowfall as others I have done quite well for cold and keeping the snow on the ground.  This morning I still had 4 inches of snow (concrete) on the ground.  It was so dense and hard the howling 40 mph east wind barely even touched it.  Amazing that SEA has had almost twice as much snow fall, but they have nearly bare ground already.  Anyway....here is the chart for the first half of the month here.  Some really nice numbers IMO!

 

 

I am not trolling here... but it is amazing to me that just over the ridge you had 1.4 inches while we had almost 3 feet in North Bend.    That is some microclimate insanity right there.  

 

I honestly believe 95% of North Bend residents would much rather had what you got there... probably more.   Including me.    It went way beyond being fun.   I enjoy a beer now and then... but drinking an entire keg is not fun.   

[snow_wizard]

I am not trolling here... but it is amazing to me that just over the ridge you had 1.4 inches while we had almost 3 feet in North Bend.    That is some microclimate insanity right there.  

 

I honestly believe 95% of North Bend residents would much rather had what you got there... probably more.   Including me.  

 

You could well be right.  I was able to see a mile down highway 18 and the amount of snow even that close was far greater than here.  It all comes down to how the east wind flows out of the upper Green River valley.  I wish more had fallen as snow here, but I'm still happy overall.  The ZR made a mess here so it wasn't that pleasant.

[Brennan]

So...the first half of this amazing month is in the can, now we shall see what the second half brings! While my area didn't do quite as well for total snowfall as others I have done quite well for cold and keeping the snow on the ground. This morning I still had 4 inches of snow (concrete) on the ground. It was so dense and hard the howling 40 mph east wind barely even touched it. Amazing that SEA has had almost twice as much snow fall, but they have nearly bare ground already. Anyway....here is the chart for the first half of the month here. Some really nice numbers IMO!

I love how detailed you are with your weather data. Man you were so close on a couple of those days where you saw a ton of moisture but weren’t quite cold enough for accumulating snow.

[Brennan]

I am not trolling here... but it is amazing to me that just over the ridge you had 1.4 inches while we had almost 3 feet in North Bend. That is some microclimate insanity right there.

 

I honestly believe 95% of North Bend residents would much rather had what you got there... probably more. Including me. It went way beyond being fun. I enjoy a beer now and then... but drinking an entire keg is not fun.

That extreme of a microclimate boggles my mind. How many miles as a crow flys?

[TT-SEA]

That extreme of a microclimate boggles my mind. How many miles as a crow flys?

Maybe 10 miles.

[snow_wizard]

I love how detailed you are with your weather data. Man you were so close on a couple of those days where you saw a ton of moisture but weren’t quite cold enough for accumulating snow.

 

Yeah....that was kind of a bummer.  On the other hand the event last Friday was totally awesome.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I still doubt an event of the magnitude SEA and co experienced can ever happen down here on our scale. If it does, it won’t be for a very long time as this pattern has been wasted here.

 

I feel like EUG does better in strong backdoor/mountain wave events.

[TT-SEA]

The 10-15 day mean on the 00Z EPS is not ice box cold. I am not sure why... but I am more optimistic about spring than before February started. I think this extreme blocking might show another side soon. Could be just snow delusion caused by frantically digging out of 3 feet of snow and giving up on even making our flight out... and now happily being a little sun burnt and feeling refreshed.

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The 10-15 day mean on the 00Z EPS is not ice box cold. I am not sure why... but I am more optimistic about spring than before February started. I think this extreme blocking might show another side soon. Could be just snow delusion caused by frantically digging out of 3 feet of snow and giving up on even making our flight out... and now happily being a little sun burnt and refreshed.

 

 

Kona? Do u go 2-3 x a year?

[Timmy Supercell]

About an inch of snow when I measured at midnight. We'll see if more falls soon. I'm about to go back to sleep.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kold. But I do notice the trend in the long range GFS to push the ridge closer to the coast in the long range. That would end up resulting in some very nice days and chilly nights. Maybe some 62/30 days the first week of March? We could all live with that I think.

 

[El_Nina]

It's been between 35-38 for like 48 hours straight.

[El_Nina]

The 10-15 day mean on the 00Z EPS is not ice box cold. I am not sure why... but I am more optimistic about spring than before February started. I think this extreme blocking might show another side soon. Could be just snow delusion caused by frantically digging out of 3 feet of snow and giving up on even making our flight out... and now happily being a little sun burnt and feeling refreshed.

Even I could use some warmer temperatures at this point, especially after another cool week coming up.

[ClarkCountyChill]

Noticeable dip toward the end of the month on the 06z ensembles.

 

[ClarkCountyChill]

Even I could use some warmer temperatures at this point, especially after another cool week coming up.

A few days of milder highs toward the beginning of March would be nice. But then I’ll probably be ready for more cool temps and rain after a few days of that. That ensemble mean shows a pretty cool pattern still at face value.

[snow_wizard]

A lot more cold ensemble members late in the month on the 6z and an Arctic outbreak on the operational after some lowland snow.

[El_Nina]

A few days of milder highs toward the beginning of March would be nice. But then I’ll probably be ready for more cool temps and rain after a few days of that. That ensemble mean shows a pretty cool pattern still at face value.

It's gonna be great for snowpack.

[ClarkCountyChill]

A lot more cold ensemble members late in the month on the 6z and an Arctic outbreak on the operational after some lowland snow.

Yeah I’ve definitely noticed a signal for the blocking sharpening a bit during week two. We’ll see if it pans out. Some regional arctic air would be a nice way to end this stretch before the inevitable reset. Also would basically lock in an historically cold February.

[ClarkCountyChill]

EPS looks colder than the operational Euro days 6-10, fwiw.

[Geos]

34.0° and light rain. So close!

[snow_wizard]

Even I could use some warmer temperatures at this point, especially after another cool week coming up.

 

I would kind of like a ridge moving in right over us after one more round of winter.  Maybe something like what happened in 1951 after the early March event.

[snow_wizard]

EPS looks colder than the operational Euro days 6-10, fwiw.

 

That's saying something too considering what the operational looks like at day 10.

 

Pretty interesting to note the surface maps spit out freezing low temps nearly every night the next 10 days.

[MossMan]

Bad news guys!

No end to the suffering just yet...

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

335 AM PST Fri Feb 15 2019

 

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Now for the bad news.

Unfortunately...it does not look like snow levels lift all that much

for the majority of next week...with the exception of Wednesday and

even then snow levels above 1000 feet have a hard time making it any

further than the Seattle Metro Area. Tuesday looks like it will be a

bit of a transition day...with a very weak shortwave trough clipping

the area very early in the morning...then a bit of a lull in the

afternoon before the next system plunges into the area by early

evening...joined by an upper level trough by Wednesday morning.

Precip here might start off as rain for the southern third of the

CWA...but will likely be a mix of snow and rain for the remainder of

the area into Wednesday afternoon and evening where enough daytime

heating should allow for a transition back to rain. Thursday will

offer a bit of a break in the activity with a dirty ridge over the

area before yet another frontal system moves in for

Friday...offering yet another chance for mixed precip. So...there

does not appear to be any end to the suffering just yet. SMR

[ClarkCountyChill]

I would kind of like a ridge moving in right over us after one more round of winter. Maybe something like what happened in 1951 after the early March event.

A ridge to LOCK that cold air at the surface!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow level dropped to about 1500' overnight. Picked up about 1/2" of snow this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Operational EURO had snow for the Puget Sound on days 9-10. 

 

Also highs 40-45 for W. Oregon after today.

[jakerepp]

Bad news guys!

No end to the suffering just yet...

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

335 AM PST Fri Feb 15 2019

 

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Now for the bad news.

Unfortunately...it does not look like snow levels lift all that much

for the majority of next week...with the exception of Wednesday and

even then snow levels above 1000 feet have a hard time making it any

further than the Seattle Metro Area. Tuesday looks like it will be a

bit of a transition day...with a very weak shortwave trough clipping

the area very early in the morning...then a bit of a lull in the

afternoon before the next system plunges into the area by early

evening...joined by an upper level trough by Wednesday morning.

Precip here might start off as rain for the southern third of the

CWA...but will likely be a mix of snow and rain for the remainder of

the area into Wednesday afternoon and evening where enough daytime

heating should allow for a transition back to rain. Thursday will

offer a bit of a break in the activity with a dirty ridge over the

area before yet another frontal system moves in for

Friday...offering yet another chance for mixed precip. So...there

does not appear to be any end to the suffering just yet. SMR

 

Not a fan of the phrase 'mixed precip'....so let's hope those temps dive a little more than projected!

[Geos]

Not a fan of the phrase 'mixed precip'....so let's hope those temps dive a little more than projected!

 

I think they say mixed to give hope to those that don't like snow! 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Currently a drippy 35F here, warmest morning in about two weeks. In any other year this place would be going nuts if this was consistently showing up in the models for late February:

 

[Canadian guy]

Currently a drippy 35F here, warmest morning in about two weeks. In any other year this place would be going nuts if this was consistently showing up in the models for late February:

 

 

 

Next week and next weekend are still looking interesting with snow chances. Hoping we can keep this cold month rolling!

[ClarkCountyChill]

Operational EURO had snow for the Puget Sound on days 9-10.

 

Also highs 40-45 for W. Oregon after today.

Petty bold that you are going for 55 at PDX today. I just don’t see it happening.

[ClarkCountyChill]

Currently a drippy 35F here, warmest morning in about two weeks. In any other year this place would be going nuts if this was consistently showing up in the models for late February:

 

I could live with this outcome. I think it would make a lot of Oregon posters feel better about this month. Let’s spread the wealth shall we?

[TT-SEA]

40 at home this morning. That is nice to see.

[TT-SEA]

Here is a live stream from one of our security cameras that I pointed outside so I could watch the weather.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Bad news guys!

No end to the suffering just yet...

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

335 AM PST Fri Feb 15 2019

 

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Now for the bad news.

Unfortunately...it does not look like snow levels lift all that much

for the majority of next week...with the exception of Wednesday and

even then snow levels above 1000 feet have a hard time making it any

further than the Seattle Metro Area. Tuesday looks like it will be a

bit of a transition day...with a very weak shortwave trough clipping

the area very early in the morning...then a bit of a lull in the

afternoon before the next system plunges into the area by early

evening...joined by an upper level trough by Wednesday morning.

Precip here might start off as rain for the southern third of the

CWA...but will likely be a mix of snow and rain for the remainder of

the area into Wednesday afternoon and evening where enough daytime

heating should allow for a transition back to rain. Thursday will

offer a bit of a break in the activity with a dirty ridge over the

area before yet another frontal system moves in for

Friday...offering yet another chance for mixed precip. So...there

does not appear to be any end to the suffering just yet. SMR

Suffering?? Jesus what a f.cking baby.

[Bryant]

Suffering?? Jesus what a f.cking baby.

Who works for the NWS and uses the word "suffering" for snow? Pretty sad.

[MossMan]

Snowpack has definitely taken a hit but still hanging in there! My vegetable garden is still under a good blanket...but I am seeing my main entry walkway stones for the first time since the 3rd.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Who works for the NWS and uses the word "suffering" for snow? Pretty sad.

His balls are in his girls purse. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still a solid 16 inches on the ground here and by looking at the models i will have snow on the ground longer than i ever have.