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2/23 - 2/24 Central Plains/Midwest Blizzard


Tom

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This latest graphic from NWS Hastings is an absolute joke. Can someone please explain to me HOW that is possible?  They are completely discounting the system for Central Nebraska and there is wayyy too much model discrepancy for that.  I'm sure there will be a massive circular snow hole across the middle of the state as shown below :huh:

post-133-0-83092700-1550743272_thumb.png

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OAX going with Euro solution-

And speaking of which, model disagreement
continues with both the 00Z NAM and Canadian remaining the
southern track solutions with the GFS much farther north, while
the EC is somewhere in-between. WPC wanted to go more toward a
ECMWF solution and so have followed that guidance to some degree
with this forecast issuance, although forecaster confidence is
quite low still at this point.

 

day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX admits it will basically come down to a now forecast - that the science is not there yet- but says the GFS is an outlier and prudent to go with the Euro-

 

Event 2 (Saturday PM-Sunday Strong Winds + Snow)...

Confidence very high in the occurrence of a winter storm. All
model solutions have had this feature for the past few days... so
am certain that it will occur. The significant question is where
will it occur? Bottom line up front, location is going to be a
hugely important factor of impacts. There will likely be a very
tight gradient between the cold, snowy northwestern side of the
low, and the warmer, rainy southeastern side of the storm. It is
possible that one location may receive 1 inch of rain, and
literally 25 miles to the northwest, there may be 10 inches of
snow/blowing snow. Being honest, near this narrow zone along the
snow/wintry mix/rain line, there are going to be some forecast
misses in this event. As a science, we do not yet have the
precision + confidence to pinpoint the exact location gradient
where the 10 inches of snow may fall vs the 1 inch of rain. This
gradient will shift slightly with each set of model runs between
now and Saturday... Do to be near the gradient and jump on a
single solution and say "look it says 10 inches of snow at my
house" may not be the best idea as it may change to "now it says 1
inch of rain at my house" 6 hours later and so on. Where value
can be added is following model solution trends...

For model trends, the GFS has been trending slightly slower and
stronger with this system...inching its location to the west at 00z
Sun for the past few model runs. The 00z Thu operational GFS has
become somewhat of a westerly outlier. The ECMWF has mainly held its
ground with a faster/more east, slightly weaker system. The
Canadian has hitched to the ECMWF, with the NAM now falling
somewhere near the middle of all solutions. At this time, really
difficult to prognosticate which model is the "best". The 00z Thu
ECMWF strongly intensifies this system over the Great Lakes
Region... dropping it to 972mb by 18z Sun... which would meet the
"technical" definition of bombogenesis as the ECMWF has it slated
to be at 996mb by 18z Sat. For such a strengthening system, the
more easterly ECMWF would have effects amplified further from
additional westward tilt with height...whereas the GFS is more
vertically stacked through Iowa. Could see a lean towards the
ECMWF camp being prudent.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The 00z EPS is a touch SE across the Plains with the heaviest snow band that includes the entire state of NE, while the GEFS are farther NW.  The track of the ULL on the 00z Euro is directly over KC which isn't really ideal to be in the heaviest snows but close enough that it's still in the game.  Based off what I'm seeing, all of NE into western half of IA, all of S MN into W WI are in the best position as it stands now.  There will likely be some minor shifts but I don't foresee anything drastic.  This system is forecast to rapidly intensify and go neg tilt right across KS as it tracks through N/MO/IA/WI and there will likely be a situation where those closest to the low may experience a rapid transition from RN to SN.  

 

Will this be the first actual storm that Bombs out???  The 00z Euro takes a 1004mb down in the TX Panhandle and drops it down to a 976mb low in the upper GL's!  That's almost 30mb in 24 hours...impressive storm system on the table and those in the vicinity of this beast are pretty fortunate to experience this one.  

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Question for Tom. I live in Omaha. I know you follow the Lrc. Leak posted yesterday he thinks this will be further south than what is trending now. It gave St.Louis a blizzard in cycle 1 and K.C. snow in cycle 2. Maybe the nam is on to something?

Good question and welcome!  I did read his blog yesterday and he noted his suspicion that models would trend farther south, although, I'm not really buying this storm tracking that much far south.  I do think KC is still in the picture to get snow out of this bc this storm will be so strong that the defo band will hug the ULL nice and tight.  I think the GFS will cave towards the Euro and will eventually come around to showing more snow across OMA/LNK.  This is going to be a very dynamic storm system and I fully expect it to become a blizzard.

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06z Euro...this storm bombs out from a 993mb storm in KS to a 969mb monster across the U.P.!  Insane rapid intensification as it cross over IA/WI as bombogenesis is the result.

 

Edit: This run is showing sustained 40-45mph winds across IA into S MN....amazing potential here...

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06z Euro...this storm bombs out from a 993mb storm in KS to a 969mb monster across the U.P.!  Insane rapid intensification as it cross over IA/WI as bombogenesis is the result.

 

Edit: This run is showing sustained 40-45mph winds across IA into S MN....amazing potential here...

 

You should see the crappy GFS at HR 240.  960mb bomb just east of Boston lol.  

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Yep north and a few ticks stronger compared to 0z and 6z.

Still misses me to the south.  Very narrow snow shield, you'd expect it to be larger and spread north.  NWS Hastings says NAM is too far south and has basically thrown it out.  They are siding more with the Euro.  As always, there will be those happy and disappointed on the forums with the eventual track.

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Though the NAM now has me basically in the bullseye; it's too big of a jump not to stop. I think this evolves into a North East NE - NW IA - SW MN / W Central MN Blizzard with the Low tracking over or just E of the Twin Cities. My .02

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Man, this will kick off some really strong winds IMBY on Sunday, along w thunderstorms Saturday evening, which could be strong to locally severe. Yikes...some wild weather coming. Power outages are a possibility and trees being knocked down could also occur.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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