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2/23 - 2/24 Central Plains/Midwest Blizzard


Tom

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Snippet from NWS Topeka afternoon AFD Wed 2/20:

 

"Ultimately, mesoscale details regarding the exact cyclone track and

accompanying heavier-precipitation bands cast some degree of

uncertainty regarding potential impacts. Present indications are

that the most dangerous winter-weather conditions will be northwest

of a line of a line from Marysville to Abilene, though high-

impact/dangerous winter-weather conditions will be possible across

the entire forecast area. Everyone is urged to monitor the latest

information from the National Weather Service in Topeka, as

consensus among model solutions probably improves in closer time

range to this event."

 

Hey guys, the Topeka NWS AFD this afternoon was one of the strongest worded ones I have seen in awhile (see above sample snippet). Sounds like they think the "big one" is coming to parts of our area. Fun storm to track so far...

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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For the EPS, looking at Lincoln specifically, there's no consensus whatsoever. Some big dogs, some duds, and some in betweens. I can already tell this is going to be a nowcast event where the weenie band sets up. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Ratios on the GFS are incredibly low. Looks like 6-8:1 perhaps. Some places showing over 2" of QPF with about 10" of snow. Perhaps some of that is rain though, i didn't check close enough.

Some of that is rain. GFS is the most rain-heavy and has a very dramatic changeover.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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DMX buying into the S soultions. Don't mention guidance by name which I find odd. Talking wide spread 2-4" with 40 kt sustained and G to 50+ kts.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Ratios on the GFS are incredibly low. Looks like 6-8:1 perhaps. Some places showing over 2" of QPF with about 10" of snow. Perhaps some of that is rain though, i didn't check close enough.

Looks like the GFS is showing mixed precip on the NW part of it along the cyclone. Not sure if it’s actually wanting to show that, or if it’s havunf some issues because of the intensity. Regardless, on the COD website, it shows ratios should be around 10:1 in the heavier snowfall areas, which seems about right.

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OAX discussion from this afternoon. The wind potential with this storm is impressive...

 

The aforementioned strong shortwave will eject from the Southwest
Saturday. As this occurs, a lee trough along Front Range will
transition to a rapidly deepening surface low, that will track
from southwest Kansas into southern Iowa through the day. This
will result in the development of a strong winter storm over the
central Plains, with significant wind and snow impacts possible in
southwest Nebraska and southwest Iowa Saturday afternoon and
evening. Blizzard conditions remain a possibility. Forecaster
confidence in the development of very strong northerly winds is
high, due to a consistent surface low track in the models and
925-850 mb winds projected to be in the 50-70 kt range. Given
this, the current forecast favors peak gusts Saturday
afternoon/evening of 40 to 55 mph (locally higher gusts can`t be
ruled out). The snow forecast is considerably more uncertain,
with the most challenging feature being the transition from
rain/freezing rain to snow Saturday morning/afternoon. Snow totals
will be impacted greatly by the timing of this transition. That
is, if you can accurately measure snow at all given the forecast
winds. Due to this uncertainty, snow totals could range anywhere
from 1-12 inches, and the current forecast favors more moderate
totals in the 2-6 inch range. This uncertainty in the snow
forecast will likely linger until this event is knocking at the
door.

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That was the Euro ensemble apparently. I got the image from Jim Flowers' weather page that he just shared an hour ago. He said that model as well as the sref ensemble have been working the best this winter. I attached the sref ensemble to this post.

Could you share a link for his page? I didn't know he had one. We were just talking about him.
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Could you share a link for his page? I didn't know he had one. We were just talking about him.

Yeah he had a page and then he "retired". I never unfollowed the page and today he started posting again and has said he is going to start posting regularly as well as sing songs and do all of the stuff he did before. I saw everyone talking about him yesterday I believe, so what a weird coincidence! I did notice he posted on the Omaha NWS Facebook page that the dry air was obvious yesterday on the 18Z runs so he felt we would get lower amounts of snow, so maybe he decided to come back because he was mad at the miss by the NWS :P  :P

At any rate, I can't find his page now. He did say in his post from a bit ago that the page might be taken down and put back up while he is working on things, so it must be gone right now. I think if you keep trying to search for "Jim Flowers weather" and it will come up again eventually. He does have his own personal page, but wasn't posting from that.

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NAM came in SE and I just want to say, the amount of lift in the DGZ in that heavy band of snow is INSANE. Would HAVE to have rates of at least 2"/hr and model output shows this. Looks like a very impressive weenie band for whoever winds up under it.

 

nam_2019022100_075_41.68--92.01.png

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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NAM came in SE and I just want to say, the amount of lift in the DGZ in that heavy band of snow is INSANE. Would HAVE to have rates of at least 2"/hr and model output shows this. Looks like a very impressive weenie band for whoever winds up under it.

 

nam_2019022100_075_41.68--92.01.png

stupid good potential.
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stupid good potential.

 

Yea this has the most potential out of any storm of late to produce snowfall rates rarely seen in this part of the country. Especially if we can wrap some instability into the cold sector, which I think is definitely on the table here. Normally I don't really care for armchairing snow, but this one may be interesting to just watch... Especially because being this far SE, my chances aren't great anyways lol.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Yea this has the most potential out of any storm of late to produce snowfall rates rarely seen in this part of the country. Especially if we can wrap some instability into the cold sector, which I think is definitely on the table here. Normally I don't really care for armchairing snow, but this one may be interesting to just watch... Especially because being this far SE, my chances aren't great anyways lol.

Arm chair this thread... It will get entertaining. Will be model latching at its finest...
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