mlgamer Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Snippet from NWS Topeka afternoon AFD Wed 2/20: "Ultimately, mesoscale details regarding the exact cyclone track andaccompanying heavier-precipitation bands cast some degree ofuncertainty regarding potential impacts. Present indications arethat the most dangerous winter-weather conditions will be northwestof a line of a line from Marysville to Abilene, though high-impact/dangerous winter-weather conditions will be possible acrossthe entire forecast area. Everyone is urged to monitor the latestinformation from the National Weather Service in Topeka, asconsensus among model solutions probably improves in closer timerange to this event." Hey guys, the Topeka NWS AFD this afternoon was one of the strongest worded ones I have seen in awhile (see above sample snippet). Sounds like they think the "big one" is coming to parts of our area. Fun storm to track so far... Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 For the EPS, looking at Lincoln specifically, there's no consensus whatsoever. Some big dogs, some duds, and some in betweens. I can already tell this is going to be a nowcast event where the weenie band sets up. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Ratios on the GFS are incredibly low. Looks like 6-8:1 perhaps. Some places showing over 2" of QPF with about 10" of snow. Perhaps some of that is rain though, i didn't check close enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Ratios on the GFS are incredibly low. Looks like 6-8:1 perhaps. Some places showing over 2" of QPF with about 10" of snow. Perhaps some of that is rain though, i didn't check close enough.Some of that is rain. GFS is the most rain-heavy and has a very dramatic changeover. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 DMX buying into the S soultions. Don't mention guidance by name which I find odd. Talking wide spread 2-4" with 40 kt sustained and G to 50+ kts. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Some of that is rain. GFS is the most rain-heavy and has a very dramatic changeover.most intense circulation hence the precip hugging the low so tight. I don't buy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Ratios on the GFS are incredibly low. Looks like 6-8:1 perhaps. Some places showing over 2" of QPF with about 10" of snow. Perhaps some of that is rain though, i didn't check close enough.Looks like the GFS is showing mixed precip on the NW part of it along the cyclone. Not sure if it’s actually wanting to show that, or if it’s havunf some issues because of the intensity. Regardless, on the COD website, it shows ratios should be around 10:1 in the heavier snowfall areas, which seems about right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 18z GFS hits me hard in Central Nebraska. Yes please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Well I'm betting on the southern route. Northern KS through Falls City/Nebraska City into Iowa. Frankie just cursed us again 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Well I'm betting on the southern route. Northern KS through Falls City/Nebraska City into Iowa. Frankie just cursed us again Seriously. I love Frankie but he carries the same curse for here as Jim Cantore. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Really holding out for a miracle, this rain is going to shorten up my snowboard season by a week or so. Went in the rain today for a little under two hours before I was soaked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersno Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Winter weather specialist on the weather channel just showed 12-18 for east central and southeast Neb. He also had wind gusts of 45 mph. They must be on crack! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Winter weather specialist on the weather channel just showed 12-18 for east central and southeast Neb. He also had wind gusts of 45 mph. They must be on crack!I didn't know Craig accepted a position at TWC! 7 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Seriously. I love Frankie but he carries the same curse for here as Jim Cantore.I would rather watch Frankie lol 2 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Update from this afternoon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Update from this afternoonI’m a fan of that map. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Update from this afternoon I wonder what model they’re going on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 OAX discussion from this afternoon. The wind potential with this storm is impressive... The aforementioned strong shortwave will eject from the SouthwestSaturday. As this occurs, a lee trough along Front Range willtransition to a rapidly deepening surface low, that will trackfrom southwest Kansas into southern Iowa through the day. Thiswill result in the development of a strong winter storm over thecentral Plains, with significant wind and snow impacts possible insouthwest Nebraska and southwest Iowa Saturday afternoon andevening. Blizzard conditions remain a possibility. Forecasterconfidence in the development of very strong northerly winds ishigh, due to a consistent surface low track in the models and925-850 mb winds projected to be in the 50-70 kt range. Giventhis, the current forecast favors peak gusts Saturdayafternoon/evening of 40 to 55 mph (locally higher gusts can`t beruled out). The snow forecast is considerably more uncertain,with the most challenging feature being the transition fromrain/freezing rain to snow Saturday morning/afternoon. Snow totalswill be impacted greatly by the timing of this transition. Thatis, if you can accurately measure snow at all given the forecastwinds. Due to this uncertainty, snow totals could range anywherefrom 1-12 inches, and the current forecast favors more moderatetotals in the 2-6 inch range. This uncertainty in the snowforecast will likely linger until this event is knocking at thedoor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 I wonder what model they’re going on?That was the Euro ensemble apparently. I got the image from Jim Flowers' weather page that he just shared an hour ago. He said that model as well as the sref ensemble have been working the best this winter. I attached the sref ensemble to this post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 That was the Euro ensemble apparently. I got the image from Jim Flowers' weather page that he just shared an hour ago. He said that model as well as the sref ensemble have been working the best this winter. I attached the sref ensemble to this post.Could you share a link for his page? I didn't know he had one. We were just talking about him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Srefs at this lead are virtually useless. Inside of 24-36 hours they have their place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 1-12 inches, lol. I like that forecast. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Srefs at this lead are virtually useless. Inside of 24-36 hours they have their placeThat's what I always thought as well, so I was surprised to see Jim say they've worked really well at this point this far out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Could you share a link for his page? I didn't know he had one. We were just talking about him.Yeah he had a page and then he "retired". I never unfollowed the page and today he started posting again and has said he is going to start posting regularly as well as sing songs and do all of the stuff he did before. I saw everyone talking about him yesterday I believe, so what a weird coincidence! I did notice he posted on the Omaha NWS Facebook page that the dry air was obvious yesterday on the 18Z runs so he felt we would get lower amounts of snow, so maybe he decided to come back because he was mad at the miss by the NWS At any rate, I can't find his page now. He did say in his post from a bit ago that the page might be taken down and put back up while he is working on things, so it must be gone right now. I think if you keep trying to search for "Jim Flowers weather" and it will come up again eventually. He does have his own personal page, but wasn't posting from that. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 That's the goofiest precip field I've seen on the NAM. Has all the precip on the west or southwest side of the surface low with no precip to the north or northwest of the low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 NAM came in SE and I just want to say, the amount of lift in the DGZ in that heavy band of snow is INSANE. Would HAVE to have rates of at least 2"/hr and model output shows this. Looks like a very impressive weenie band for whoever winds up under it. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 NAM came in SE and I just want to say, the amount of lift in the DGZ in that heavy band of snow is INSANE. Would HAVE to have rates of at least 2"/hr and model output shows this. Looks like a very impressive weenie band for whoever winds up under it. stupid good potential. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_024h&rh=2019022100&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= Solid band of snow lol 0.3 inches of fzr and 13 inches of snow here lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 stupid good potential. Yea this has the most potential out of any storm of late to produce snowfall rates rarely seen in this part of the country. Especially if we can wrap some instability into the cold sector, which I think is definitely on the table here. Normally I don't really care for armchairing snow, but this one may be interesting to just watch... Especially because being this far SE, my chances aren't great anyways lol. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Long range NAM has me in the jackpot zone. Hard not to like where I sit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Yea this has the most potential out of any storm of late to produce snowfall rates rarely seen in this part of the country. Especially if we can wrap some instability into the cold sector, which I think is definitely on the table here. Normally I don't really care for armchairing snow, but this one may be interesting to just watch... Especially because being this far SE, my chances aren't great anyways lol.Arm chair this thread... It will get entertaining. Will be model latching at its finest... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Arm chair this thread... It will get entertaining. Will be model latching at its finest...No need to model latch. The NAM is right, and we all know it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 No need to model latch. The NAM is right, and we all know it.Lock it in 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Whatever the icon shoes tomorrow at 18z I am going to ride... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 I'm going all in on the DGEX! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Whatever the icon shoes tomorrow at 18z I am going to ride... I'm riding whatever the JMA shows. It's done really well recently. /s Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 This storm has gosaints special written all over it. I have no reasoning other than the fact that it has gosaints written all over it. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 When does that guy come in and say we are bad people for rooting for a storm? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 The kiss of death by the CPC; throw in Frankie's prediction and we know this thing might end up over St. Louis. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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