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March 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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As we begin to count down the days of meteorological Winter, which has left many snow enthusiasts across the northern tier of our Sub quite thrilled with how the 2nd half of the season has performed.  Will this relentless winter pattern continue into the 1st month of meteorological Spring???  How severe can this month get??  Top 5 coldest open to the month???  Is Severe Weather going to impact our southern members???  Are there more records to be shattered this month???  Will Spring ever arrive....???  So many questions to be answered as we set our sights closer each and every day towards the Spring Solstice this month.

 

What are the trends in the CFSv2???  Trending bolder with the cold...

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201903.gif

 

 

 

 

 

The latest CPC Outlook for March has a rather cold look across the heartland...

 

 

 

 

 

 

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That is one nasty Arctic shot for early March on the GFS-- 498 thicknesses into IOWA on March 3rd-4th? That is unheard of.  It's 1962 cold (-22F on March 1st in DSM- one of the top 5 weather records I know off) . 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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That is one nasty Arctic shot for early March on the GFS-- 498 thicknesses into IOWA on March 3rd-4th? That is unheard of.  It's 1962 cold (-22F on March 1st in DSM- one of the top 5 weather records I know off) . 

"Polar Vortex Party" part 2???  A memorable open to March '19 is in the works...besides the cold, I hope the GFS is right and is seeing the lead system that bombs out across the GL's next weekend.  It's been the most consistent of the past couple days and it's ensembles are showing more and more members with big hits which then unload the vicious shot of cold.  This would prob surpass March '14 or '15 in terms of cold and rival '62???  

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06z GEFS have been consistently advertising a southern Plains system tracking up towards the GL's and phasing/bombing across the GL's region next weekend.  Back-to-Back weekend Majors????  I'm trying to dial in to see if this is the part of the LRC which produced the late Nov Blizzard and it seems to be lining up.  The Euro is showing something similar but a couple days later.  Something big is brewing.

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06z GEFS have been consistently advertising a southern Plains system tracking up towards the GL's and phasing/bombing across the GL's region next weekend.  Back-to-Back weekend Majors????  I'm trying to dial in to see if this is the part of the LRC which produced the late Nov Blizzard and it seems to be lining up.  The Euro is showing something similar but a couple days later.  Something big is brewing.

I believe this is the part of the pattern that produced the late Nov blizzard and it is due back the first couple days of March.  Then followed by the return of the PV.  You have this month nailed down.  This will be our version of March Madness!

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if it pans will this finally include us? 

 

06z GEFS have been consistently advertising a southern Plains system tracking up towards the GL's and phasing/bombing across the GL's region next weekend.  Back-to-Back weekend Majors????  I'm trying to dial in to see if this is the part of the LRC which produced the late Nov Blizzard and it seems to be lining up.  The Euro is showing something similar but a couple days later.  Something big is brewing.

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Interesting comments from the afternoon MKX AFD.

 

"We are keeping an eye on a more amplified system that may develop
over the Midwest next weekend. The intensity of the low pressure
system will depend on how well the northern and southern stream
mid levels phase. This looks like a similar setup to the one that
is currently affecting us. The exception is that the low track
looks a little farther southeast which would put southern WI in
more accumulating snow. We still have a long time to go before we
can say anything for certain, but the 12z runs of the ECMWF and
GFS both have it. The Canadian remains unphased and thus keeps us

dry."

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Interesting comments from the afternoon MKX AFD.

 

"We are keeping an eye on a more amplified system that may develop

over the Midwest next weekend. The intensity of the low pressure

system will depend on how well the northern and southern stream

mid levels phase. This looks like a similar setup to the one that

is currently affecting us. The exception is that the low track

looks a little farther southeast which would put southern WI in

more accumulating snow. We still have a long time to go before we

can say anything for certain, but the 12z runs of the ECMWF andGFS both have it. The Canadian remains unphased and thus keeps us

dry."

DMX mentions it too but basically just says it needs to be watched.

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if it pans will this finally include us? 

Hopefully :unsure:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It appears the 00z Euro has really amped up the weekend storm, much more than previous runs.  The one problem for Iowa is it seems to be a late developer.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The cold shown in the March 2-3rd to March 5-6th period is EPIC on the Euro. No getting around it. At the very least; it needs to be mentioned  in some AFD's soon. If not- (and it's the real deal) then you know your office is biased "Spring Fever" . I can't see in this pattern how it's not at least mentioned. Sure as H- E " L L an epic warm up would be mentioned - I know that from DMX.  

 

Since Jan 12th- this has turned into a great winter. But- the first half was a mild / warm - fart. So don't let them none educated peopled tell you it's been a "severe winter" - it hasn't been temp wise for sure- and not snow until recently. The Winter on a whole for many reading this has been snowy with avg temps.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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As Grizz mentioned, the severity of the cold being advertised during the 1st week of March is not to be taken lightly.  I may have been wrong on the idea that it may actually rival the cold that came with the late Jan Polar Vortex visit for parts of the Upper Midwest but moreso to those out farther west into the Plains where they escaped the "heart" of the cold in late January.  Daytime subzero highs for several days in a row????  March is roaring in like a Lion on steroids this year and what a way to kick start an opening to a month with another possible Major system that looks to phase/morph with the Polar Vortex!  What an epic pattern, one of which, you do not see often as history will be on the verge of being re-written yet again this cold season.

 

On a side note, remember last year when all we were hearing was the "Beast from the East" across Europe???  Well, it's been a full blown torch for the entire month of Feb all across Europe.  Nature tends to balance the weather patterns across the Globe.  Meanwhile, the historic stretch of winter most of us have been enduring across the central CONUS and North America has taken the spotlight which was a vivid vision I had in my mind prior to this season beginning.  Hint: (Next winter might be a repeat based on certain solar, oceanic, arctic cyclical patterns I've picked up on).

 

So, while the GFS has taken the lead on next weekends potential winter storm, the rest of the models are starting to follow suit.  I'd like to wait till today's 12z runs to pull the trigger on a storm thread as I'm pretty confident there will be another impactful winter storm to track this week.

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While a visit from the Polar Vortex is....in itself...rather spectacular, but to see it track so far south in latitude this late in the winter season is very fascinating.  Both GEFS/EPS ensembles are suggesting the Vortex to skirt our northern tier of the Sub across the GL's during the opening days of the month.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_8.png

 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_30.png

 

 

 

It was not long ago, in late January, when we were tracking a well-timed and synchronized strong Clipper system that unleashed the "Great Jan '19 Cold Wave".  I believe we are about to embark on a similar set -up but with a strong southern wave phasing with the northern stream across the GL's region that will eventually "bomb" out again across the same region being impacted by the ongoing Blizzard we are enduring today.  

 

00z GEFS suggesting a very similar track as the lat November Blizzard that impacted the Plains/MW/GL's region.

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The cold shown in the March 2-3rd to March 5-6th period is EPIC on the Euro. No getting around it. At the very least; it needs to be mentioned  in some AFD's soon. If not- (and it's the real deal) then you know your office is biased "Spring Fever" . I can't see in this pattern how it's not at least mentioned. Sure as H- E " L L an epic warm up would be mentioned - I know that from DMX.  

 

Since Jan 12th- this has turned into a great winter. But- the first half was a mild / warm - fart. So don't let them none educated peopled tell you it's been a "severe winter" - it hasn't been temp wise for sure- and not snow until recently. The Winter on a whole for many reading this has been snowy with avg temps.

Euro isn't alone on this one, GFS is showing crazy cold temps too. Holy , the lows these models are advertising would be record-setting even in January. 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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That's looking like a drier March for us. Not crazy about that considering we may have a very dry summer ahead.

 

High of 60* today. Climbing to 74* by Wed. And dry.

 

IMG_3544.GIF

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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That's looking like a drier March for us. Not crazy about that considering we may have a very dry summer ahead.

 

High of 60* today. Climbing to 74* by Wed. And dry.

 

attachicon.gifIMG_3544.GIF

 

I wouldn't hold your hats on a dry summer just yet, esp the early/mid part of Summer which I think will be very very wet across the central/southern Plains with high potential for Severe Wx.

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That Euro is almost unbelievable. That simplly has never happened before, even remotely. Bring it- I got plenty of firewood (really not, but I can make more).

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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If the Euro is right, almost all of IA/S MN stay below zero for about 84+ hours starting next Sat pm.  Just an incredible amount of cold is in the cards and for a long duration.  #mindblown  #iceage  #glacier

How cold is it showing Tom? 

 

I am also wanting to know your thoughts about the snowfall potential as we head into March. Right now, my total snowfall here is 50.5", and I am only 9.5" away from beating the all time record for snowfall in Cedar Rapids which is 59.9", set back in 2008. Based on the trends, do you think I have a shot of getting that snow for March? Any potential dates that fit the LRC for storms? 

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The euro backed off the weekend system after last night's more amped-up run.  Still, it has a few inches falling across Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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That Euro is almost unbelievable. That simplly has never happened before, even remotely. Bring it- I got plenty of firewood (really not, but I can make more).

I’m with ya. Let’s bring the goods and witness some unprecedented stuff. The odds of having another winter like this anytime soon are probably fairly slim. Might as well set some more records now.

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Even if the Euro is 5C too cold; it still smashes min / max records for several days in a row and soundly breaks most min records for at least a day or two. It's got the snow pack, that's for sure!!

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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How cold is it showing Tom? 

 

I am also wanting to know your thoughts about the snowfall potential as we head into March. Right now, my total snowfall here is 50.5", and I am only 9.5" away from beating the all time record for snowfall in Cedar Rapids which is 59.9", set back in 2008. Based on the trends, do you think I have a shot of getting that snow for March? Any potential dates that fit the LRC for storms? 

IA has had the hot hand and based off what I'm seeing there are 2 systems this month that could put you over the top.  Next weekend and then the following week.  Heck, you may continue to add on additional snowfall throughout this month.  #historyinthemaking

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Not that we need the love here but it would be awesome to break the all time snowiest season. 1911/12 holds that title but we have a shot for it. Friday's system looks like a nice steady snowfall, but the one in two weeks is a toss up. Either way been a fun ride this winter and it doesn't appear to be over yet! :)

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