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March 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I saw on Twitter that Gary Lezak thinks the Saturday wave (map does show Sunday at 12 Noon) will make it all the way to KC.  It looks very similar to the 12Z GFS.  Looks like an I80 to south of I70 special.  I linked his Twitter page below if this is of interest to you.

 

https://twitter.com/glezak

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I saw on Twitter that Gary Lezak thinks the Saturday wave (map does show Sunday at 12 Noon) will make it all the way to KC.  It looks very similar to the 12Z GFS.  Looks like an I80 to south of I70 special.  I linked his Twitter page below if this is of interest to you.

 

https://twitter.com/glezak

Matches up perfectly to the blizzard that struck the area back in the first cycle. We would expect another wave in our area about a week or so later. 

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I may just trek north this weekend. If winter doesn't want to come to you, here you just drive a few hrs north and "whoops-there it is"  :D

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I hope severe weather season brings some action around here! Anyone have any insights or thoughts towards it? March is usually a pretty good month for it to ramp up.

Hopefully you get to hear those Chicago tornado sirens in person.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I may just trek north this weekend. If winter doesn't want to come to you, here you just drive a few hrs north and "whoops-there it is"  :D

There ya go! ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Euro is a bit north with the March 3rd storm. Lincoln gets snow with temps in the single digits. I honestly wouldn't care if there wasn't another flake the rest of the season, but also kinda want to reach 50" lol. I read an article earlier saying the city only has enough salt left for one or two storms. Most roads even downtown still have a layer of snow and ice which usually disappear pretty quick. Residential roads are 10x worse, especially since the city decided not to treat them after the event Tuesday last week. Sidewalks are hit and miss. I was walking earlier today holding my Wendy's bag and drink and fell butt first after slipping on a patch of ice. I held on to the bag and drink like my life depended on it, luckily they were saved. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Euro is a bit north with the March 3rd storm. Lincoln gets snow with temps in the single digits. I honestly wouldn't care if there wasn't another flake the rest of the season, but also kinda want to reach 50" lol. I read an article earlier saying the city only has enough salt left for one or two storms. Most roads even downtown still have a layer of snow and ice which usually disappear pretty quick. Residential roads are 10x worse, especially since the city decided not to treat them after the event Tuesday last week. Sidewalks are hit and miss. I was walking earlier today holding my Wendy's bag and drink and fell butt first after slipping on a patch of ice. I held on to the bag and drink like my life depended on it, luckily they were saved.

UNL is just as much of a joke with salting as the city is. During the ice storm the year I went there, there wasn't a single wet spot. It was all ice. It took me 5 minutes to walk from Schramm to the convenience store next door.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Since we don't have a spring/summer page yet I guess I'll put this here. Granted it feels like a long ways away and I know it's AccuWeather but they are calling for a good severe weather season in the plains states. I would agree with that as the dominate weather pattern during this years cycle is a southwesterly jet; that should bode well for severe weather in our area! 

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I may just trek north this weekend. If winter doesn't want to come to you, here you just drive a few hrs north and "whoops-there it is"  :D

 

NWS Gaylord's offices post-bliz

 

IMG_0798.JPG

 

And can you say WHITEOUT??

 

Cadillac1.gif

 

With all the trees, it's really rare for any road closures in NMI, but they had quite a few and you can see why. Also mentioned that plows were unable to keep up. My kinda storm conditions right there! (which I never saw in my 7 yrs living there btw)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NWS Gaylord's offices post-bliz

 

IMG_0798.JPG

 

And can you say WHITEOUT??

 

Cadillac1.gif

 

With all the trees, it's really rare for any road closures in NMI, but they had quite a few and you can see why. Also mentioned that plows were unable to keep up. My kinda storm conditions right there! (which I never saw in my 7 yrs living there btw)

wow

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Some LR thoughts this morning as we finish off the last day of met Winter and look forward into met Spring.  This month is trending to be another carbon copy from Feb and from the looks of it will be another big snow producing month, esp farther south across the heartland.  You guys have seen me use this technique that has been proven to be useful to determine where blocking/ridges/troughs could set up in the extended.  Over the past couple days, I've seen the 30mb warming show almost a hook over the top of the CONUS.  If you look at the last few images, notice the warming across Canada which suggests to me we should look for ridging to show up in the modeling Week 2-3 across Canada.

 

temp30anim.gif

 

This type of pattern is conducive for "Banana HP's" and blocking over the top while systems "bowl" their way across the lower 48.  In fact, we may see a precursor to this pattern in the extended once we get past the bitter cold when our next big ticket storm (9th-11th) hits the heartland.  I expect to see more of zonal flow with arctic air in toe to fuel these winter storm systems that are lined up this month.  "March Madness" is an understatement of the potential here...it may be dubbed "MarchMaggedon" when all sudden done.

 

Incredibly, 00z GEFS/EPS are in remarkable agreement that a very wintry pattern is poised to set up across the central CONUS.  Where was this pattern in the heart of winter???  Seem like our "modoki" El Nino has decided to show up in the Spring this year.

 

Lastly, the JMA weeklies are hinting at the pattern I've mentioned above which suggests ridging across Hudson Bay in the extended.  Mind you, this is an ensemble and it may not be as aggressive now but next weeks run may show more of the Ridge in Canada that I am anticipating will show more strength.  Another reason why I expect to see this ridging pattern is bc in cycle # of the LRC it produced a large scale ridge between Oct 28 - Nov 5th and this will cycle through in the extended.

 

Check out the Week 2 wet signal across the central CONUS and cold anomalies off the JMA weeklies...coast-to-coast storminess as March will continue to ROAR like a Lion.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201902.D2712_gl2.png

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201902.D2712_gl0.png

 

 

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March looks to come in like a lion as temps look brutal, along w a nice snowpack around.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The last daily run off the CFSv2 paints a tremendous cold signal and potentially historic March in the making...I expect to see a very active STJ across the southern tier of the CONUS and don't necessarily buy the dry trends across the MW/OV.

 

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20190228.201903.gif

 

 

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20190228.201903.gif

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The last daily run off the CFSv2 paints a tremendous cold signal and potentially historic March in the making...I expect to see a very active STJ across the southern tier of the CONUS and don't necessarily buy the dry trends across the MW/OV.

 

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20190228.201903.gif

 

 

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20190228.201903.gif

Looking at some possible historic numbers in the Central US if this verifies.  Already looking cold here the next 2 weeks and that could continue longer.

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We will have to see how the up coming expected cold plays out. But for west Michigan Monday and Tuesday could be a top 5 coldest days for a March 5th and 5th The forecast high/low for Monday as of today is lows of 0 to +5 and highs of 10 to 15 the average H/L is 39/23 the current record coldest maximum for March 4 it 13 in 2002 and the record low is -3 in 1948. For March 5 the average H/L is 40/24 today's forecast for Tuesday in near 15 with a low of 5 the record coldest maximum for March 5 is 16 in in 1920 and the record low is -8 in 1948. As for the snow potential for Sunday the NWS here in Grand Rapids at this time is saying move on nothing to see here. But hints that there could be some moderate amounts of lake effect next week.

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A couple potential medium/biggies are still showing up on the 7th and 9/10th.  That would be a nice way to end the season.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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March looks like it wants to develop a couple of big dogs. Have to wait n see on that. The potential is there though.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The euro continues to be much less aggressive with the March 7th system.

This will probably be the way to go as the Euro I believe has performed better than the GFS models this winter. Not saying that the Euro has always been correct but for the most part has been leading the way.

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The euro is a little better than I thought for the first system on the 7th.  It has a few inches here and a bit more from Omaha to Des Moines.  The second system a few days later then dumps nicely on Iowa and surrounding locations e/w/n.  The map has quite a lot of snow(combined) in spots.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022812_240_5660_323.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I was thinking about this earlier today and wondering what the lowest wind chill is on record at DSM--

 

from DMX PM AFD-

Sunday morning wind chill
in the -20 to -30 range across northern Iowa, with -20 to -35
across much of the state by Monday morning. Wind chills this low
will threaten record low wind chills for the month of March in DSm
and likely at other locations as well.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00Z GFS still has strong winter storm March 7-8.

 

Yeah, it's a biggie for Iowa... long duration and heavy.   Unfortunately, it's a week away and we know it won't pan out like this.  The Canadian has the system, too, but it's south.

 

The FV3 weakens the first system to nothing as it moves through and is warm and rainy with the second one.  It has been inconsistent, as expected this far out.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Getting to that point in the year where I either want a big storm or nothing. Those nickel and dimers are fine in the dead of winter, but either give me big snowstorms or give me spring!

 

... well, actually... I want at least 0.3” to get 50” on the year, and then the above is true!

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