2/26 - 2/28 Multi Wave Event

[Stacsh]

HAHA thx Stacsh.  Some models have me shut-out, some keep me in the game. Been riding the edge (N and S) it seems on just about every system this season and it's wearing on my last nerve. Other than the weekend storm, most times this season when GRR had me in a WWA it turned into a Warning level event. So, a "non-headline event" may turn into a WWA or what shoulda been one. Guess we'll see soon enough!

 

A slight shift S would benefit both of us it seems.  So let's just make it happen.  

[Niko]

Some globals have about a 12 hr window of flakes flying even here in Marshall. Oddly, the GFS is furthest south with the snow swath. If a warm layer is the issue (thus mix in my grid) it seems like that model which normally is the warmest would with the WAA potential would reflect that. I really want one good storm where I can sit back relax and enjoy a +/- 75 mile shift buffer. The only worry being whether I get 8, 10, or 12" for a total. 

You are sitting good amigo for some snow, and if this system tracks even further south like you say, you will be golden.

 

I expect watches and warnings to be out in the pm package.

[jaster220]

NOAA:

Attention turns to tonight into Wednesday with the next winter

system that is expected to bring accumulating snowfall across

southeast Michigan. A PV anomaly will eject into the northern plains

with a digging upper level trough that will pass through the Great

Lakes on Wednesday. Out ahead of this wave, low level winds will be

turning out of the southwest, which will bring in a little extra

moisture to the area by tonight. Isentropic ascent and FGEN increase

across the area resulting in snow starting to fall around midnight.

Forecast soundings suggest good thermal profiles favorable for good

snow growth through the morning hours for much of southeast

Michigan. Snow will continue through the late afternoon/early

evening early Wednesday as the main PV feature crosses over

Michigan. A surface low lifting across northern IN/OH will coincide

with the nose of a strengthening mid level jet streak edging into

Michigan, which may give a boost in forcing to ongoing activity

during the afternoon across central portions of the CWA. Snow ratios

through the bulk of the best forcing from roughly Pontiac northward

should be able to generate at least 3-5 inches with potential for

some areas to reach 6 inches by the end of this event if afternoon

activity picks up.

 

I suspect that watches will be posted during the 4pm package.

 

Not if GRR's wizard "04" is correct. He's decided this event is a dud and D.O.A.

 

GRR went with WWA  I96 north.  Long duration event, not much wind.  May add a county or 2 to the south.  Sorry Jaster!

 

Prolly drop your headline sooner than add me to it, lol

 

 

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1137 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019

 

We trimmed snow accums a bit based on latest model trends. NamNest

and ECMWF ensemble means suggest snow totals tonight/Wednesday may

be closer to 1 to 3 inches than the 3 to 5. Impacts will likely

occur via slower travel speeds Wednesday morning, but shouldn`t

be too significant.

 

[Niko]

Not if GRR's wizard "04" is correct. He's decided this event is a dud and D.O.A.

 

 

Prolly drop your headline sooner than add me to it, lol

NOAA:

 

For DTW...Potential for a a period of light accumulating snow focused

overnight through early Wednesday afternoon. Activity may start as

early as 07z-09z, with peak intensity centered during the mid-late

morning hours. Heaviest snowfall expected to remain north of DTW,

keeping accumulation potential around or just above an inch.

 

My call is 1-3" for the city of Detroit and 3-6" for the northern suburbs.

[Stacsh]

Not if GRR's wizard "04" is correct. He's decided this event is a dud and D.O.A.

 

 

Prolly drop your headline sooner than add me to it, lol

 

That's disappointing.  

[St Paul Storm]

Pretty nice band setting up over the metro. Big flakes continue. Where have I seen this before? Currently 5F.

 

Latest HRRR and RAP runs now showing 4-6” for northern parts of MSP.

[Snowshoe]

Snow has started. Quite a bit sooner than the 5pm noted in the NWS forecast.

[St Paul Storm]

Snow has started. Quite a bit sooner than the 5pm noted in the NWS forecast.

Yep same here. Chance of flurries this afternoon and then snow after 4pm. Totally wrong on that call. It’s been ripping good for a while now. Good luck!

[Tom]

Pretty nice band setting up over the metro. Big flakes continue. Where have I seen this before? Currently 5F.

 

Latest HRRR and RAP runs now showing 4-6” for northern parts of MSP.

When it’s your year, the hits just keep coming. The Euro suggests the system over the weekend drops another 4-7” in your back yard!

[East Dubzz]

Radar actually shows some light snow returns already here, but nothing falling as of yet. DVN did mention some dry air issues, so it’ll be interesting to see if we can overcome that or not.

[St Paul Storm]

When it’s your year, the hits just keep coming. The Euro suggests the system over the weekend drops another 4-7” in your back yard!

It’s been a dream month for sure. If the Euro is correct we’ll be pushing the monthly record of 46”.

 

#relentless

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

My area now under WWA:

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO5 PM EST WEDNESDAY...* WHAT...Occasional snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2  to 4 inches expected.* WHERE...Livingston, Oakland and Macomb Counties.* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 5 PM EST Wednesday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road  conditions which will impact the morning commute. Expect  reduced visibilities in falling snow.

[Stacsh]

 

NOAA:

 

My area now under WWA:

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO5 PM EST WEDNESDAY...* WHAT...Occasional snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2  to 4 inches expected.* WHERE...Livingston, Oakland and Macomb Counties.* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 5 PM EST Wednesday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road  conditions which will impact the morning commute. Expect  reduced visibilities in falling snow.

 

Went from 4-6 to 1-4  here.  Wonder why that changed in the last 2 hours.  Good luck!

[Niko]

Went from 4-6 to 1-4  here.  Wonder why that changed in the last 2 hours.  Good luck!

All depends on the mid level front where it sets up. Models had it more south earlier, but now expect it to be slightly further north.

 

NOAA:

Still banking on the good snow to liquid ratios with an extended

period of the max lift in DGZ north of M-59 to support 3-5 inches of

snow with QPF averaging around a quarter of an inch. Obviously,

always concern with FGEN that lift will be more focused and narrow,

which would lead to more varied snow amounts (2-6")

[jaster220]

At least some are and will get a decent covering outta this

[East Dubzz]

GFS still wants to drop 0.15” QPF here this evening, and there’s just no way that’s happening. FV3, to my shock, wants to drop .20” QPF lol!

 

I think we’ll maybe see some light snow showers or some freezing drizzle, but no way are we getting accumulating snow. Bad work from the GFS on this one. NAM doesn’t appear to be doing much better. All hail King Euro!

[Stacsh]

All depends on the mid level front where it sets up. Models had it more south earlier, but now expect it to be slightly further north.

 

NOAA:

Still banking on the good snow to liquid ratios with an extended

period of the max lift in DGZ north of M-59 to support 3-5 inches of

snow with QPF averaging around a quarter of an inch. Obviously,

always concern with FGEN that lift will be more focused and narrow,

which would lead to more varied snow amounts (2-6")

Already got an inch 3 hours early. Not sure what GRR is smoking.

[St Paul Storm]

Hi res models are too far north with the snowfall tonight. The stuff out in the Dakotas entering W MN isn’t going to stay north of the MSP metro.

[Niko]

Already got an inch 3 hours early. Not sure what GRR is smoking.

Probably legal weed ...radar looks awesome. Approaching 0.5" now.

[Niko]

Currently snow and temps in the teens. Feels great outside. After stepping out of the restaurant, the snow hitting my face felt great, w no wind.

[Stacsh]

Turned into freezing rain this morning.  19 degrees.  Defrost couldn't keep up and my windshield kept freezing over while I roasted.  

[East Dubzz]

Had a thin layer of ice on the sidewalk and truck this morning. Nothing too much. More just an annoyance, as I had to scrape it off before heading to work.

[Niko]

Still snowing likely and have otg so far  3.1". Temps are at 16F. Winter wonderland out there.

[Stacsh]

Still snowing likely and have otg so far  3.1". Temps are at 16F. Winter wonderland out there.

Lucky. Ending with 1.5" of snow with crust on top.  Depressing.  Don't even want to shovel so I didn't.   Might get some LES here next week, but at this point, unless there is a big dog, I'm ready to turn the page to spring.  

[Niko]

Lucky. Ending with 1.5" of snow with crust on top.  Depressing.  Don't even want to shovel so I didn't.   Might get some LES here next week, but at this point, unless there is a big dog, I'm ready to turn the page to spring.  

I think you stand good for some LES as the arctic air rushes in.

 

Winter will hang on well into March. Cold air will be entrenched at least through the 20th of the month, if not even beyond that. I can see an ease in the cold by end of March. Something tells me that it will be epic for a lot of peeps in this forum. I just hope the snow starved peeps on here get in on the action b4 Spring arrives.

[Snowshoe]

That snow fluffed up to a nice little 6.1" storm. The snow is REALLY adding up! There's a grill in that picture. Can you spot it?

[Niko]

That snow fluffed up to a nice little 6.1" storm. The snow is REALLY adding up! There's a grill in that picture. Can you spot it?

I think....could be wrong though

[jaster220]

Turned into freezing rain this morning.  19 degrees.  Defrost couldn't keep up and my windshield kept freezing over while I roasted.  

 

Welcome to my winter, lol. Been all too much of that around SMI

 

Ended up scoring a solid 1" of sugar-dense snow after all. Between 9-11 pm last night about 0.3" fell, then another 0.7" from the 2nd batch from 2-6 am. Better than I thought I'd do tbh. Scratch-n-claw, scratch-n-claw..

[jaster220]

That snow fluffed up to a nice little 6.1" storm. The snow is REALLY adding up! There's a grill in that picture. Can you spot it?

 

All I see is Christmas lights?!?  Nice snowwwww dude!

[james1976]

Light snow currently despite no radar returns.