3/2 - 3/3 Heartland Winter Storm

[Tom]

00z EPS is trending wetter/stronger...looks like it cuts up the OV a bit more this run which may bode well for N IN/S MI peeps???  Won't take much more to see heavier snows creep north if this system ends up cutting NE quicker.

[Tom]

06z Euro...oh so close...a somewhat shift N across IN and S MI....came back juicier..

 

 

[Niko]

A little more north would be nice. This system could be a huge hit for some. Only wish it was not traveling so fast.

[Tom]

I'd like to see the 12z suite of runs today if they show a trend of intensifying the SLP as it tracks up the OV.  The 06z Euro shows the wave track across the S Plains and then rapidly strengthen into the low 990's across the OV which ultimately brought the heavier precip a bit farther N this run.  Could the LRC provide us a clue???  

[Clinton]

Tom in Nov the robust wave closed off about 40 miles to my SE, I could certainly see something similar happening this time.

[Tom]

Tom in Nov the robust wave closed off about 40 miles to my SE, I could certainly see something similar happening this time.

Yup, and that is what the Euro is starting to possibly sniff out so hopefully we see better trends today.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z NAM gives virtually no snow to Nebraska or Northern Kansas to KC, and just a little south of there,  and it looks much drier.  Hoping this isn't a trend.

[Hawkeye]

Looking like the bump north was just a tease for Iowa.  It's disappearing again for us.

[Clinton]

12Z NAM gives virtually no snow to Nebraska or Northern Kansas to KC, and just a little south of there,  and it looks much drier.  Hoping this isn't a trend.

It's almost a non event.  Yikes!

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z ICON still looks similar to the 0Z Canadian, and 06Z GFS and FV3 GFS.  Euro has been trending south.  I would like to see it come back north but we'll just have to see if that will occur.

[Clinton]

12z GFS buries me.

[Tom]

12z GFS buries me.

 

This has your storm written all over it as well as the KC folks....

[CentralNebWeather]

This has your storm written all over it as well as the KC folks....

 

 

I really think Nebraska south of I80 gets more snow, that is what NWS Hastings and North Platte are saying.  The 12Z Canadian is maybe what they are looking at.

 

[Clinton]

I really think Nebraska south of I80 gets more snow, that is what NWS Hastings and North Platte are saying.  The 12Z Canadian is maybe what they are looking at.

 

Canadian.

I think your right and I think the Euro will start to trend that way.  Last nights Euro almost fits the LRC perfectly.

[Niko]

Still, a couple of days to track this. Anything is possible. So far, noone is guaranteed anything. I'd rather not be in a hotspot now.

[CentralNebWeather]

I think your right and I think the Euro will start to trend that way.  Last nights Euro almost fits the LRC perfectly.

Maybe that is wishful thinking on my part.  Always a chance that the first wave goes north and the 2nd waves goes far enough south to miss me, happened before.  Someone mentioned on here how much some of the models like to suppress waves south with cold air pressing and they end up a little farther north.  I apologize to who said that, but maybe it was an earlier storm this year.  What will happen will happen.

[Niko]

NOAA:

The GFS is the farthest south with the next Ohio Valley system on
Sunday with the ECMWF the farthest north. 00z NAM ends at 12z Sunday
closer to the ECMWF. POPs have been pushed toward 50 percent in
this forecast for Sunday. Any accumulations look to be light with
around an inch for metro Detroit up to 2 inches along the Ohio
border.

[jaster220]

Still, a couple of days to track this. Anything is possible. So far, noone is guaranteed anything. I'd rather not be in a hotspot now.

 

While some storms have trended better inside of d2, not sure we can pull that rabbit outta the hat again with this one. Nov's system was north and a RN->SN deal with temps above 40F at onset. Climo in early March would tend to keep a progressive wave south and if I were in OH I'd fully expect climo to keep this storm down my way. Just not our winter for direct hits with the S stream events. 

[indianajohn]

In other News... the weather for us has been so non existent that Tom Skilling reported that it would take 700 years to Zamboni Lake superior... LOL!!!

[Niko]

While some storms have trended better inside of d2, not sure we can pull that rabbit outta the hat again with this one. Nov's system was north and a RN->SN deal with temps above 40F at onset. Climo in early March would tend to keep a progressive wave south and if I were in OH I'd fully expect climo to keep this storm down my way. Just not our winter for direct hits with the S stream events. 

Its possible that this storm could be a big hit for us. Have to wait and see. Still 2days out. I just wish that this system was not moving too fast. Its racing on.

[CentralNebWeather]

It will be interesting looking at the evening models.  Hopefully they give a pretty good consensus.  Local mets. say it is a complicated system with many moving parts and I totally agree with them.  

[Wxmidatlantic]

A great song. "Wichita Lineman."

[Stacsh]

While some storms have trended better inside of d2, not sure we can pull that rabbit outta the hat again with this one. Nov's system was north and a RN->SN deal with temps above 40F at onset. Climo in early March would tend to keep a progressive wave south and if I were in OH I'd fully expect climo to keep this storm down my way. Just not our winter for direct hits with the S stream events. 

 

If we weren't looking at a mini PV and near record cold coming, I'd say it definitely would've trended N.  But SMI just isn't due for a big snow event this met winter.   Still got all of March though, and the way the cold is predicted to hang around, I FEEL we haven't seen our biggest snowfall yet.  

[Wxmidatlantic]

I predict, Chicago, Michigan got it comming. Be patient brothers. And don't post crying beautiful woman.... Just saying...

[Minny_Weather]

And don't post crying beautiful woman.... Just saying...

Aw but I wanted to.

[CentralNebWeather]

18Z NAM is a little better than the 12Z but not by much.  Pretty paltry amounts.  

[snowstorm83]

Except maybe Holdrege, I doubt this will come northeast enough for Nebraska folks 

[CentralNebWeather]

Except maybe Holdrege, I doubt this will come northeast enough for Nebraska folks

And even I might be on the edge. Afternoon disco still saying 3-5” with potentially more in bands and due to high ratios with some blowing and drifting. I hope they are correct, I’m a little more pessimistic.

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS isn’t bad. Wish the Euro didn’t keep going south. When the king isn’t on your side you tend to be less enthusiastic.

[jaster220]

If we weren't looking at a mini PV and near record cold coming, I'd say it definitely would've trended N.  But SMI just isn't due for a big snow event this met winter.   Still got all of March though, and the way the cold is predicted to hang around, I FEEL we haven't seen our biggest snowfall yet.  

 

Well, getting a big snow b4 MET winter and/or after MET winter is a hallmark of a Nino around here so it's certainly got some precedent. You may be correct. It'll come when i'm done with winter, lol

[Stacsh]

Well, getting a big snow b4 MET winter and/or after MET winter is a hallmark of a Nino around here so it's certainly got some precedent. You may be correct. It'll come when i'm done with winter, lol

After all the February misses. I’m officially done. Give me warm boomers and outdoor grilling

[Grizzcoat]

Wow- GFS so far S- even KC 1-3". Our OK poster should be excited!! He deserves it!!!

[Minny_Weather]

#BuryOKwx24

 

Just give me an inch and I'm happy. That'd give us 50" for the season. Plus, it'd put us on the plus side for Marches with measurable snowfall. After that, I'm perfectly okay with not seeing another flake for the rest of the season.

[Clinton]

The GEM is further north and the LRC would favor a solution similar to this.

[Clinton]

I believe the vort will be stronger than what the models are showing and that will bring those higher totals north.  Tonights Euro should be interesting.

[Money]

I believe the vort will be stronger than what the models are showing and that will bring those higher totals north. Tonights Euro should be interesting.

Why do you think that?

[hlcater]

Why do you think that?

Cuz the LRC says so. I still maintain that the LRC sucks.

[Minny_Weather]

Cuz the LRC says so. I still maintain that the LRC sucks.

I actually second this. I'm sorry, I fail to see any cyclical pattern this Winter. Active storm pattern ≠ LRC. It's a good theory, but I just simply don't believe it's anything more than a theory.

[Grizzcoat]

Would be wrong not to post the Euro - even if MBY gets little - OKwx24 deserves it. Enjoy! And Clinton also. 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

This mornings models have trended more snow in Central Nebraska so what does NWS Hastings do, they lessen snowfall amounts. What? They started to trend up slightly last night but more so this morning. I think we get more than the 1-2” they now predict. Maybe I’ll be proven incorrect, maybe I won’t. We’ll see.