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3/2 - 3/3 Heartland Winter Storm


Tom

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Thank you, anytime in Missouri that you can get a 6+ snow in March you take it.  Great call on this storm by the way!

Same goes to you!  Even though it's not the outcome I hoped to see, just glad to see the snow starved members down south getting a hit.  How long has it been since you had a good snow?  Has it been since the Jan 11th-12th storm?

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I actually second this. I'm sorry, I fail to see any cyclical pattern this Winter. Active storm pattern ≠ LRC. It's a good theory, but I just simply don't believe it's anything more than a theory.

 

 

Cuz the LRC says so. I still maintain that the LRC sucks.

This storm is directly related to the storm back in November. The blizzard that struck Kansas the weekend after thanksgiving. I'm not trying to persuade you guys or anything but this matches up almost to the T with that storm. The Teleconnections where different back then, thus that storm cut more. We then got hit by a storm the week after this one so expect the storm next week to be further to the north. Again, I don't want to cause anything just wanted to show this to you guys! 

Screen Shot 2019-03-01 at 7.52.15 AM.png

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This storm is directly related to the storm back in November. The blizzard that struck Kansas the weekend after thanksgiving. I'm not trying to persuade you guys or anything but this matches up almost to the T with that storm. The Teleconnections where different back then, thus that storm cut more. We then got hit by a storm the week after this one so expect the storm next week to be further to the north. Again, I don't want to cause anything just wanted to show this to you guys! 

Its a fantastic LR tool if you know how to use it.  I understand if people don't quite understand the forecasting method bc it can be overwhelming to comprehend.  There are cyclical patterns in almost every aspect of life, nature, climate, astrology and the oceans...why not a yearly cyclical pattern in the wx???  It just makes sense to me.

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The European model is the only model giving my area snow from this system (couple of inches). Usually, throughout this Winter, this model was spot on, so, it bears watching as to how far north the snow comes.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GFS.png

 

12Z models looking good.  Been busy teaching this morning so haven't really had time to check.  GFS coming in better for much of Nebraska, Kansas, south of KC.  This model would have me at 8".  Might be a little high, but with higher ratios there could be a chance.  I would think Hastings might want to do a little update this afternoon since I see that the NAM is also increased.  I will look at Canadian over lunch and then see what the Euro does.

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#BuryOKwx24

 

Just give me an inch and I'm happy. That'd give us 50" for the season. Plus, it'd put us on the plus side for Marches with measurable snowfall. After that, I'm perfectly okay with not seeing another flake for the rest of the season.

I'm from Snowless Hell, Oklahoma and I approve this message.

 

#BuryMe

 

:D

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I don't understand that gap between northwest and southeast Kansas. 

The NAM has been weaker than the other models with the strength of the wave.  It has slowly been catching up and I bet the 00z run tonight it fills in and looks like the other models and more like the Nov version.  It will be colder so the ratios will be higher but the wave looks likely to be weaker than in NOV, maybe because of the +AO.

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With the wind and snow amounts I would say we both should get a WSW.

With the cold coming, someone is going to get more than is forecasted as this should be light and fluffy. We still have a solid 6” or more on the ground. Did hit 32 today, but starting to fall as the north wind is howling. Glad it’s the weekend and I can enjoy it.

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@ CentralNeb, snow should be falling quite nicely in your back yard....

 

UEX.N0Q.20190302.1246.gif

Really coming down. Started about 6 am. Only 17 so it is easily accumulating with enough wind to blow it around. It is so light that it will be easy to scoop. This is just round 1. Round 2 starts this evening for locations south of I80 into Kansas. 3-6” could easily be reached with some higher amounts. Temps will plummet so ratios may be 20:1 or higher according to local Mets.

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I’m wondering if these waves may over produce? Spot forecast just bumped me up to 3-5” today and 1-3” tonight. Might be a little high but with Arctic air we’ll see.

I think so the 6z NAM and GFS both jumped up on amounts and have me in 6+.  I still think 5 to 8 is a real possibility for us.

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How much were you expected to get this morning?

1-2 and some were barely an inch. This band is really over performing farther south than was predicted. Most of this heavier snow was supposed to stay north of the interstate. We are easily over 3” and probably more as I eyeball a place on the deck railing that I cleared yesterday. Too cold to go out and measure as I am drinking coffee and watching the Nebraska High School Girls Basketball Championships today.
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