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March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW


BLI snowman

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Haha Nws forecasted high temp for Tacoma today was 43. Made it to 39 at 10am and at peak daytime 2:30pm it’s snowing and 34 degrees. Too warm for it to accumulate much its still just a trace but if precipitation keep coming after the sun comes down some places will get some accumulations tonight

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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NWS forecast for BLI needs to be updated badly. It shows high of 43 with rain and rain turning to mix after 10pm... it’s snowing moderately and sticking to all surfaces except the roads FOR NOW. Down to 34 from 37. Snowing and sticking on some side streets east of town.

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Wow, this is pretty interesting. The US just had it's wettest winter on record.

 

NOAA@NOAA

 

Just in: U.S. has wettest #winter (Dec–Feb) on record, marking 2.22 inches of precipitation above average, per @NOAANCEIclimate bit.ly/2tPPuRr #StateOfClimate

 

fvUSjUC.png

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOAA/status/1103326722693496833

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Yes, snowing now, and warmer than it was when it was raining earlier.

 

As Tim taught us yesterday. Nothing melts snow faster than wet snow!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Wow, this is pretty inreresting. The US just had it's wettest winter in record.

 

NOAA@NOAA

 

Just in: U.S. has wettest #winter (Dec–Feb) on record, marking 2.22 inches of precipitation above average, per @NOAANCEIclimate bit.ly/2tPPuRr #StateOfClimate

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOAA/status/1103326722693496833

 

You can definitely see why. Surprising, though. You'd think it would be a strong La Nina or El Nino, something with a juiced up jet.

 

EDIT: I see the previous record was indeed from the 1997-98 super Nino.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Took a shower. GF says it’s snowing. Sure enough ❄

 

Not sticking tho. Warmest part of the day.

 

Alex Jones would call this a 360 win...

 

As for Will Clark in the Hall of Fame, given Harold Baines was just selected I guess the bar is pretty low. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Wow, this is pretty interesting. The US just had it's wettest winter on record.

 

NOAA@NOAA

 

Just in: U.S. has wettest #winter (Dec–Feb) on record, marking 2.22 inches of precipitation above average, per @NOAANCEIclimate bit.ly/2tPPuRr #StateOfClimate

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOAA/status/1103326722693496833

And the western lowlands still ended up below average. :)

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**sun angles now below 30 degrees at PDX**

 

If we keep this up we could be at January levels within HOURS.

We could have done this last December but noooooo, you just had to wait until baseball season started...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Snowing and sticking at 900' on HWY 22 east of Salem now, so probably the same at home. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yeah, we've seen this lame script before. 

 

We all know the startiform stuff will bail exactly as it gets cold enough like clockwork. The showers tonight will do pretty well for places with some elevation I think. 

 

The lowest elevation places will have trouble getting a decent shower in the first place, and the temp will be kept just above the valley floor in between showers due to onshore flow. Some random low elevation place will probably get a lucky inch though. Odds of anything widespread are probably done for the season IMO. It is annoying that we came so close to a widespread 2-3 inches if this just came in during the night.

 

I agree that the timing is super annoying, but on the flip side downtown Portland's record high for March 6th is 74... still cool to see snow falling during the afternoon on a date where near summerlike warmth is possible.

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It's obvious what parts of the ground have become frozen the past month.

 

 

I just noticed that you have a picture of mine from the day after Christmas as your profile pic.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I just noticed that you have a picture of mine from the day after Christmas as your profile pic.    :lol:

 

Sort of odd...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18z GFS has a pretty juicy looking CZ for Snohomish County tomorrow night.

 

 

 

 

 

 

12Z ECMWF actually showed the exact same thing.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I agree that the timing is super annoying, but on the flip side downtown Portland's record high for March 6th is 74... still cool to see snow falling during the afternoon on a date where near summerlike warmth is possible.

 

No doubt, to have it snowing moderately all day like this in March is impressive on its own right. 

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For sun angles,Jesse would look good with a pair of those old school, flip down baseball shades (while we're on topic, of course)

With three or four layers of eye black. As I recall Will Clark was all about the eye black. They’re kindred spirits!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Nearing 2” of new snow at home when I headed back to work. Just under an inch of new here at work.

 

A total of 0.00 inches here.

 

There seems to be many scenarios where your location is snowier than mine.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well moisture doesn’t seem to be an issue this week like it was last week! Looking across I-5 at my office to snow covered trees and moderate snow falling. I-5 just wet. Side roads are covered however.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just to add some context, the models determine that PNA forecast, as opposed to the other way around.

 

That said, I could see us getting some ridging late in the month. I don’t think this will be a year that it settles in as the background state again, though.

Not an easy call. I’ve had a hard time picking out the pattern progression over the last month..the current pattern is sort of trying to self-perpetuate, which reminds me of what happened with the warm pattern after 2013. A newish RWB structure has manifested and those tend to stick around for awhile. Sometimes for many years.

 

Theoretically, it’s possible a warm pattern sets up in April/May but devolves into coolish/normalish/zonal pattern during the summer. Or another scenario is pattern instability through the warm season as wavelengths shorten and forcing displaced far away from the WPAC Warm Pool.

 

I don’t think spring/summer will follow your typical +ENSO climatology or expectations in general. The QBO timing and deep solar minimum are both unique as is the timing of the OKW return cycle relative to seasonality. That doesn’t mean it will be “cool” spring/summer (I don’t see that either due to the developing El Niño), but ironically, it might end up cooler and wetter than any of the last several years because of the niño tendency and cold WPAC, rather than the opposite.

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The EPS has been trying to build in heights just off the west coast for the last 2 weeks.

 

As it stands right now it still doesn't build in until after day 10. I'll start to believe it once it gets within 7 days.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/jtmdyo.png

The MJO/intraseasonal forcing will hit the MC domain shorty but will, eventually, propagate eastward towards the dateline..this time with a strong PV again. So a warm-up could very easily happen and should not be discounted.

 

Then again, the dateline/WPAC forcing and Aleutian Low will begin to weaken said PV and forwardly lower the integral of tropical static stability. So you have to figure the warm-up (if it happens) will be an intraseasonal affair rather than some kind of major, longer term pattern switch. The vibe of instability is also favored by seasonal climatology.

 

And with the PV becoming so strong as we approach the equinox, the final warming/wind reversal will be quite prolific this year. Would be a bad time to get a warm-up, only to have the polar mode/NAM go haywire again and send you back into the icebox. :lol:

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Came home to roughly 1.5 inches here at home this afternoon. Currently 32.2 and coming down fairly good.

attachicon.gif20190306_150822.jpg

 

Glad you bought at elevation now?!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Most of the dusting that fell earlier has melted off even though it has non stop snowed since 10am because temps are just slightly too warm. Should change once the sun goes down

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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My boi Yev just stuck his fork in winter below 1000'.

 

https://www.facebook.com/yevweatherruler/videos/10157074660127354/

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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