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March 7th Snow Potential


Grizzcoat

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Dang, the HRRR keeps ramping up that narrow band.  The 03z run has Lincoln up to near 0.50".  This could be a real nice surprise for you guys.  However, I just noticed the band on radar is even farther south than the latest HRRR depiction, so maybe the best snow will fall south of Lincoln?

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Lincoln and seward counties added to advisory

Lancaster County*. Lincoln county is in Western Nebraska. That's just a trigger for me, sorry!

 

Radar is still set up way South of models. No man's land between here and Beatrice looks to be the jack zone. I just hope the airport gets measureable snow. Other than that I don't really care how much I get.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Well it looks like my reverse psychology worked!  Grand Island has finally been thrown a bone after miss after miss.  It has been puking snow for 3 hours and we have at least 4 inches. It's still snowing at a good clip.  We were only expecting 1 inch.  The fact that this band is so narrow makes it a lot sweeter.  It's exactly what every other area of the state got to experience. Now I'm just mad that it's happening a couple days before temps get above freezing for the first time in almost a month.

 

Feels good to live in jack city for a night finally. I've been outside enjoying this.  Enjoy some mediocre pics that don't do it justice.

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Gotta a meso out of this band, it means business! Snowing moderately here and hoping it stays together!

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0160

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1209 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2019

 

Areas affected...Central Nebraska into Southeast Nebraska

 

Concerning...Heavy snow

 

Valid 070609Z - 070845Z

 

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is expected to continue for a few

more hours across Nebraska.

 

DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy snow has developed across central to

southeast Nebraska beneath an area of strong frontogenesis and

isentropic ascent. Snowfall rates are likely at their peak intensity

now through the next few hours with slowly lessening snowfall rates

by dawn as lower tropospheric flow veers. Snowfall rates up to 2

inches per hour are likely occurring beneath the heaviest snow band,

but the transitory nature of this band and the short duration of

peak intensity will limit additional accumulations overall.

 

..Bentley.. 03/07/2019

30FD900D-9A4E-40A8-995B-2186A50E0016.gif

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Went out and measured 3.5". We didn't need this snow (nor is it a convenient day for me personally) but I'll take it as a stat padder. There were also a couple of bare areas that popped up in areas that were disturbed during the blizzard so this worked to cover those back up. 25.3*F.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Looks like the Euro was exactly right on this entire time, at least in Eastern Iowa.  The GFS should issue a formal apology.  As should the NWS for calling it an outlier.  It's likely I won't see a flake of snow today, despite being under a winter weather advisory for some reason.  

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Roads around Lincoln are nearly perfect, btw. Funny how this un-predicted event resulted in clear to slush-covered roads immediately after, yet a storm which we had 2-3 days to prepare for resulted in 4 days of icy and snow-packed roads.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Ended with slightly under 6" here in gretna. Saw a 5" report in papillon about an hour ago, so maybe more there

You doubled me again as I got "hosed" once again. Woke up around 5a and checked the radar to see the heavy yellow band across the southern metro and watched it as it weakened while lifting north towards my neighborhood, the yellows drying up maybe a couple of miles from my house. I'm up off of 680 and Irvington exit. I maybe hit 3" but most spots were 2.5". Seeing most of town south of me in that 4-6" range.

The same thing happened with our blizzard where the heavy returns refused to cross I-680 a mile from my house and I ended up with 7" total while I believe you said you were over 12" and most of town was around 9".

Crazy how that seems to always work out one way or the other for a season. Either you're always getting the high amounts or it seems like you're always on the lower end. Of course snowfall is never a uniform blanket of amounts, but it's been weird to see the heavy returns get within a mile or two of my location and refuse to move over my house.

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Roads around Lincoln are nearly perfect, btw. Funny how this un-predicted event resulted in clear to slush-covered roads immediately after, yet a storm which we had 2-3 days to prepare for resulted in 4 days of icy and snow-packed roads.

I know the reason why roads were so much worse here was for two reasons. First we had rather heavy freezing rain/sleet before the snow so that laid down a layer of ice/cement first.

Second, with how heavy the snow was coming down along with the winds, the city said they were only doing main roads and only worried about trying to plow versus treating the roads. They also weren't able to pretreat as well due to the rain/slop that fell first.

We had no school on that Monday after the blizzard and there were still quite a bit of issues on Tuesday for the school buses, etc.

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The GFS was terrible with this system.  For days, it had significant snow much farther north in Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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With this snowfall, we are now at 55.2" on the season. That is good for the 2nd snowiest season on record. We need 4.3" to beat the snowiest season on record. May as well root for 60"!

 

Yeah we might as well try to break the record at this point. Though the next 2 storms look to be mostly rain, and by the time those are over climo starts to heavily favor rain. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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I should add that this is now OFFICIALLY the #1 Winter on record. I think that's crap, considering records from 1899 to 1947 here are accurate but "unofficial," but yay I guess? We're still #2 all-time, with #1 being 1914-15.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I'm back after an extremely busy week, but things have slowed down some for now.

Anyway, this system underperformed (from what most models showed earlier & the NWS forecast) for my area with only 1" of fluffy dentrites accumulating here yesterday or 0.03" liquid. Looking like an active wet week ahead.

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