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2019 Spring/Summer Discussion


Tom

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My guess would be AA, rather than BA because, typically, this far south in the summer, it usually tends to be hot n very humid. Probability standards stand much higher. I.E., if lets say, we were discussing places such as MN or IA, then, for these locales, we can say that there is a possibility that BA temps could be a factor due to being much further north.

I think we can all handle an average summer. The month in 2018 of 100+ was rough. I mean, we hit 110*!

We typically get a few days, then back below 100*.

It was just not acceptable as far as I'm concerned last summer.

Some rain somewhere mid summer is good and temps

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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If your looking for a fast start to Summer, the latest JMA seasonal is showcasing just that across the majority of the northern Sub. While it does show eastern warmth in April, the real deal Summer time warmth/heat may be brewing up in May/June. The 500mb pattern its suggesting across the GL's/Dakotas region is an ideal "heat" machine. Not only that, but in recent years when you place the Vortex near Greenland during this time of year I've noticed this is conducive to produce warmth underneath as the jet is weakening. The wet signal showing up across the central Plains throughout the remainder of the Spring is continuing as are some of the other LR climate models.

 

April temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201903.D0700_gl2.png

 

 

May temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201903.D0700_gl2.png

 

June...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201903.D0700_gl2.png

 

 

 

In other news, I've noticed the CFSv2 is suggesting a strong El Nino to be brewing up during the Summer and the JMA has dramatically shifted towards this look as well. Let' see if this is a trend or typical "Spring Shoulder" model mayhem.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201903.D0700_gls.png

That would be great to have El Niño during summer as that bodes well for above average rainfall & a lesser chance of drought which would be welcomed by farmers and anyone that likes good growing conditions, including myself.
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That's a trade off for your nice mild winters.

Usually. This one was damp and the chill went through you.

I normally love winter here. The air is clear, skies often bright blue, and the ground is golden punctuated by dark green Live Oaks.

 

Our summers tend to be oppressive from July to mid September. I grew up without an air conditioner.

I don't know how my parents did it ! My hat's off.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I think we can all handle an average summer. The month in 2018 of 100+ was rough. I mean, we hit 110*!

We typically get a few days, then back below 100*.

It was just not acceptable as far as I'm concerned last summer.

Some rain somewhere mid summer is good and temps

Here IMBY, anything > than 85F in the Summer gets to be uncomfortable.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I think we can all handle an average summer. The month in 2018 of 100+ was rough. I mean, we hit 110*!

We typically get a few days, then back below 100*.

It was just not acceptable as far as I'm concerned last summer.

Some rain somewhere mid summer is good and temps

After last Summer's relentless heat and humidity here, I'll gladly take an average Summer. That means 80s highs and 60s lows. Yes please.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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FWIW, here is the Euro's Summer temp forecast which looks quite similar to the JAMSTEC...big blob of BN anomalies centered across the Plains.

 

D12gmFAUcAA_Oep.jpg

 

Looking good for the Lakes region. Beach-n-boat temps are always welcome in my book. 2013/14/15 trifecta of cold summers will not soon be forgotten.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I got my first taste of severe weather couple of days ago. Hopefully, this is the beginning of a good severe weather season.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Well, we got one last week. 80mph winds at my home which escalated to 108mph 25 miles east. Tore the area up.

I like a good thunder boomer, but I'll pass on the damage. Too expensive.

 

That said, it may be an active Spring with the collision in the atmosphere of the cold we've all had and the warmer moisture.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I got my first taste of severe weather couple of days ago. Hopefully, this is the beginning of a good severe weather season.

 

As long as it remains Sub-destructive levels, I'll be fine with it. Oddly, while the winter storm track didn't pan out very well, that may just play into a much better severe wx scenario than we've seen in years. Nature doing it's balancing thing..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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As long as it remains Sub-destructive levels, I'll be fine with it. Oddly, while the winter storm track didn't pan out very well, that may just play into a much better severe wx scenario than we've seen in years. Nature doing it's balancing thing..

Hopefully..... :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The latest IRI-Multi Model ensemble suggesting the warmth to build during the 2nd half of Spring into early Summer across the northern/eastern Sub while the Plains remain near normal.

 

 

 

AMJ19_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

 

AMJ19_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

Summer months...

 

JJA19_NAm_tmp.gif

 

JJA19_NAm_pcp.gif

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@ IRI forecast maps

 

Can't get here fast enough. This life below 60F is a cruel churn on the sanity. At least we don't have the flooding nightmare as well tho. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The latest IRI-Multi Model ensemble suggesting the warmth to build during the 2nd half of Spring into early Summer across the northern/eastern Sub while the Plains remain near normal.

 

 

 

AMJ19_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

 

AMJ19_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

Summer months...

 

JJA19_NAm_tmp.gif

 

JJA19_NAm_pcp.gif

Cool dry air over the central CONUS around a developing intermountain ridge into the late summer. I like it. No monsoon season for them though.

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CPC's take on how the Spring/Summer pattern may evolve...something that sticks out is that the majority of the climate models are suggesting ridges on both coasts. I didn't post the precip maps bc it basically has the entire Sub with AN chances and highlighting the Rockies/Plains region with the highest probabilities. This may be a summer season where the Rockies could see several snowstorms and unusually strong PAC storms. The LRC will be cycling and my thoughts are for this pattern to continue and the seasonal transition may not be as great this year due to a strong PAC jet this season. I'm seeing more clues that abnormal conditions are going to set up this summer as the Solar Minimum grows strong this year.

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  I'm seeing clues that abnormal conditions are going set up this summer as the Solar Minimum grows strong this year.

I'd like to hear more of your thoughts on this.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I have some ideas I’ll chime in on but will prob do so next month. I’d like to see some more data come in as we get out of the “spring shoulder” months.

Slightly AN would be nice here

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'd say by mid April, we are safe to uncover everything in our backyards, such as patio furniture, barbeque stands, and etc.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Models trended toward today's system being drier, and they were right.  I only picked up about a tenth of an inch, a solid dud.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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CPC's take on how the Spring/Summer pattern may evolve...something that sticks out is that the majority of the climate models are suggesting ridges on both coasts. I didn't post the precip maps bc it basically has the entire Sub with AN chances and highlighting the Rockies/Plains region with the highest probabilities. This may be a summer season where the Rockies could see several snowstorms and unusually strong PAC storms. The LRC will be cycling and my thoughts are for this pattern to continue and the seasonal transition may not be as great this year due to a strong PAC jet this season. I'm seeing more clues that abnormal conditions are going to set up this summer as the Solar Minimum grows strong this year.

Greatest summer ever in the heartland?

Has my vote. :)

 

I know you folks up north need as much sunny and dry as possible before then though. Hoping for that, primarily. I hate to hear of the agricultural losses this season. If it were reported accurately against history, it would be stunning.

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Just a couple patches of snow here and there otherwise all grass now.

 

I think the last drift on my commute across the farmlands here disappeared over the weekend. Just dirty old parking lot piles now, tho just a county or two north I saw large drifts and even some plow bank remnants along the roads on Saturday. Mostly in the shaded south side of the roads where there's heavy wooded stretches. From about GR north there was even places in the more wooded regions with snow cover but sunny exposed areas were getting bare. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tryol Basin is just about the only southern Wisconsin ski resort still open. They are open all week 12-9 with cheap, cheap lift tickets under $16. Going to tomorrow, looking really forward to spending the day snowboarding in the 50s in a t-shirt and maybe even shorts.

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Tryol Basin is just about the only southern Wisconsin ski resort still open. They are open all week 12-9 with cheap, cheap lift tickets under $16. Going to tomorrow, looking really forward to spending the day snowboarding in the 50s in a t-shirt and maybe even shorts.

 

In March of 2003 I went north on a random weekend and caught the first spring skiing conditions of that long & cold winter. I think it was around the 3rd week. We did Extreme Tubing Friday night and it was still winter (below freezing I meant), but Saturday we hit the slopes at Schuss Mnt. and enjoyed sunny and 65F with plenty of bugs flying by. My all-time fave spring skiing conditions!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hopefully we have an active severe weather season here in SEMI.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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In March of 2003 I went north on a random weekend and caught the first spring skiing conditions of that long & cold winter. I think it was around the 3rd week. We did Extreme Tubing Friday night and it was still winter (below freezing I meant), but Saturday we hit the slopes at Schuss Mnt. and enjoyed sunny and 65F with plenty of bugs flying by. My all-time fave spring skiing conditions!

 

Something is really cool about spring snowboarding and skiing. After bundling up all winter it feels so free to be out there in a few layers of clothes, or even just one layer.

 

I usually try and see how short I can make the gap between snowboarding and stand up jet ski. My best is 5 days, one year I snowboarded on Monday then Friday I was out in the water. This spring has been long, the lake is still 95% frozen, only thawing around the edges. Hopefully when I get back from my little trip I can jet ski. If I got Wednesday it'll just be over a week or so between the two. Not a bad year.

 

I go snowboarding, a lot. It doesn't feel link winter is over until you're snowboarding through slush and puddles and you're in a t-shirt.

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The worry I have now for the month of May is if the blocking locks heading deeper into Spring along with a NW NAMER.  Probably the worst combo for the Spring months and a similar pattern we saw evolve during the cool/wet summers of '14/'15 that had a dominant NW Flow pattern.  If we just had the blocking pattern without a NW NAMER ridge then the pattern wouldn't be all that bad to produce some heat in May but the kicker is the NW NAMER ridge that keeps funneling cold/cool air out of Canada.  Greenland blocks in May tend to produce warmth across our region but not if you combine it with a NW NAMER ridge.  So much is riding on how this month evolves and we get past the Spring "shoulder" months.  Gosh, my earlier hunch a couple weeks ago of a "Year without a Summer" may sincerely be showing up in someones back yard this year.

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The worry I have now for the month of May is if the blocking locks heading deeper into Spring along with a NW NAMER.  Probably the worst combo for the Spring months and a similar pattern we saw evolve during the cool/wet summers of '14/'15 that had a dominant NW Flow pattern.  If we just had the blocking pattern without a NW NAMER ridge then the pattern wouldn't be all that bad to produce some heat in May but the kicker is the NW NAMER ridge that keeps funneling cold/cool air out of Canada.  Greenland blocks in May tend to produce warmth across our region but not if you combine it with a NW NAMER ridge.  So much is riding on how this month evolves and we get past the Spring "shoulder" months.  Gosh, my earlier hunch a couple weeks ago of a "Year without a Summer" may sincerely be showing up in someones back yard this year.

 

How do I "unlike" this post??  :ph34r:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I need some help Chicago peeps!! I'm planning a trip there this summer for my wife and I. I'm looking for suggestions for best hotel in the downtown area. Close to magnificent mile or not? Any suggestions would be great! I'm thinking along the chicago river is about best don't you think?? Last time there my wife got us a room in the Swiss hotel on Wacker Drive but felt a little out of place there; it seemed like that place was specifically for pilots and upper class! I'm looking at the Marriot on the Mile, it seems like a good fit. Again any suggestions would be great! 

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I need some help Chicago peeps!! I'm planning a trip there this summer for my wife and I. I'm looking for suggestions for best hotel in the downtown area. Close to magnificent mile or not? Any suggestions would be great! I'm thinking along the chicago river is about best don't you think?? Last time there my wife got us a room in the Swiss hotel on Wacker Drive but felt a little out of place there; it seemed like that place was specifically for pilots and upper class! I'm looking at the Marriot on the Mile, it seems like a good fit. Again any suggestions would be great! 

https://www.tripadvisor.com/ShowForum-g35805-i32-Chicago_Illinois.html

 

Top right corner hotel thread...

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