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2019 Spring/Summer Discussion


Tom

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Where are you seeing this???

 

At least for Michigan lol.  We have started near average, about to warm up briefly.  I see 5 days AN and 3 BN and 2 near average the next 10 days.  Beyond that is who knows.  Seems normalish to me.  I can't speak for the blizzards coming in the plains.  But I've seen much worse in April in Michigan the last 38 years.  

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Another ugly run off the Euro Weeklies through the extended.  Could it get any worse???  Last night's 00z EPS has the looks of a Cross Polar Flow pattern and unleashes a direct discharge of late season cold down out of Canada into the central CONUS around the 19th/20th.  This lines up with the Euro Weeklies run from last night and sets up an ugly, ugly finish to the month of April which looked oh, so nice just a couple weeks ago off the climate models.  My, how things have turned the corner fast and this BN pattern bleeds into May.  Once we get into May, average temps are much more tolerable (60's) but still, I'm not seeing any sustained warmth (AN temps) in the near future.  

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I need some help Chicago peeps!! I'm planning a trip there this summer for my wife and I. I'm looking for suggestions for best hotel in the downtown area. Close to magnificent mile or not? Any suggestions would be great! I'm thinking along the chicago river is about best don't you think?? Last time there my wife got us a room in the Swiss hotel on Wacker Drive but felt a little out of place there; it seemed like that place was specifically for pilots and upper class! I'm looking at the Marriot on the Mile, it seems like a good fit. Again any suggestions would be great! 

 

We stayed there in May of '14. Somehow got one of their skylight suites with a ton of windows and neat angular design. It was up about 20 or 30 stories too so the view over the river and up to Trump's place was awesome. I liked it. Only downer was catching a very cold weekend of 50s/30s which put a real chill on the normal warm season festive atmosphere along The Mile. Hope your plans work out!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We stayed there in May of '14. Somehow got one of their skylight suites with a ton of windows and neat angular design. It was up about 20 or 30 stories too so the view over the river and up to Trump's place was awesome. I liked it. Only downer was catching a very cold weekend of 50s/30s which put a real chill on the normal warm season festive atmosphere along The Mile. Hope your plans work out!

Ended up going with the Embassy because I know what I'm getting there. Happy hour and breakfast ordered is tough to beat! Looking forward to the trip and it might not be worth going to two cubs games with the way they are playing!! Beaching it up for sure so hoping for hot weather that weekend! 

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Looks like Spring this year is taking its sweet ol' time to really show its presence.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like Spring this year is taking its sweet ol' time to really show its presence.

 

Could it be worse than last April? It out-snowed March and I was in Grand Rapids on the 16th and you could NOT tell the difference from a (normal) December 16th! My string of (5) 60s & 70s already makes this April an improvement. Where you been? Grass and fields are green now, heck even the x-way median was really green today. Things are budding out and birds are in full song. It's spring - at least for now, lol

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Could it be worse than last April? It out-snowed March and I was in Grand Rapids on the 16th and you could NOT tell the difference from a (normal) December 16th! My string of (5) 60s & 70s already makes this April an improvement. Where you been? Grass and fields are green now, heck even the x-way median was really green today. Things are budding out and birds are in full song. It's spring - at least for now, lol

Not sure tbh, but, definitely feels like a delay in Spring.

 

Was in NYC for several days on business n pleasure. ;) :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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In a world filled with warmth, the model is somewhat agreeing with the CFSv2 of a pocket of cool in the S Plains and certainly a wet signal.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2019.1apr2019.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2019.1apr2019.gif

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The JMA monthlies came in today and generally has a normal Summer for most of us, the exception for those down south where it may end up BN temp wise.  A lot of precip across the central CONUS with a somewhat warmer start to summer and then transitions towards a cooler July overall.

 

May...the ridge pops in the east and into the GL's this month...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201904.D1100_gl2.png

 

June...the ridge slowly fades as summer moves on across the eastern CONUS...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201904.D1100_gl2.png

 

July...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201904.D1100_gl2.png

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I'll take a below normal, as normal usually contains a week of 100* days and no rain.

 

The pocket of cool is a mystery, but I'll take it my friend!

 

One thought however, will that cool pocket collide with the warmth and give us severe storms?

I recall a summer like this back around 1980ish.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I'll take a below normal, as normal usually contains a week of 100* days and no rain.

 

The pocket of cool is a mystery, but I'll take it my friend!

 

One thought however, will that cool pocket collide with the warmth and give us severe storms?

I recall a summer like this back around 1980ish.

You would think so and one can imagine if the troughs keep coming across the Rockies this summer, which has been the pattern, there would be a good chance for lots of severe wx across the Plains.  IMO, an interesting summer is shaping up for you down south.

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No real t'stm activity expected here in SEMI. Just hvy rainfall.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'll post this here since it will more than likely effect our late summer pattern.  Now I'm beginning to see why the CFSv2 and other climate models are slowly backing off the strength of the Nino late Summer into the early Autumn next year.  Clearly, the blob of warmer sub surface waters is cooling off rapidly.  Interesting trends going forward throughout this year.  Some mets are expecting another Nino next cold season but that may be in jeopardy.  Let's see what nature has in store.

 

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

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That 3 month outlook for the Southern Plains is crazy.

 

More rain will be nice though. Is there a Year that compares to this ?

 

Can pass on those severe t'storms though, Tom.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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  • 2 weeks later...

The latest CanSIPS model singing a similar tune for the summer for our Sub with a cool/wet summer expected across the central CONUS.  I think it's not cool enough for the southern Plains, but it may be picking up on a ridge in August for the south?  Something to keep an eye out going forward.

 

cansips_T2maMean_month_us_2.png

 

 

cansips_apcpna_multimonth_us_1.png

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Summer '09 repeat? Lol

I read an article regarding the current solar cycle and an interesting synchronicity popped up...the year '09...

Overview

The sun continues to be very quiet and it has been without sunspots this year more than half the time as we approach what is likely to be a deep solar minimum. In fact, all indications are that the upcoming solar minimum which is expected to begin later this year may be even quieter than the last one which was the deepest in nearly a century. Solar cycle 24 has been the weakest sunspot cycle with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Solar cycle 24 continues a recent trend of weakening solar cycles which began with solar cycle 21 that peaked around 1980. The last time the sun was this blank in a given year on a percentage basis was 2009 during the last solar minimum when 71% of the time was spotless. That last solar minimum actually reached a nadir in 2008 when an astounding 73% of the year featured a spotless sun - the most spotless days in a given year since 1913.

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I remember '09 and it was a very rainy and cooler summer in North Texas.

Everyone was wondering what had happened?

 

Our official rainfall was 40.89" in 2009 at the airport.

Average is around 32"

 

DFW rainfall total last year 55.97" while I had like 62.65". DFW is eastward and often times the heavier rainfall is in West Ft. Worth or the county west of it.

 

PS - Denton reported to tornados. Both EF1. One they called a Scud Tornado.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I remember '09 and it was a very rainy and cooler summer in North Texas.

Everyone was wondering what had happened?

Our official rainfall was 40.89" in 2009 at the airport.

Average is around 32"

DFW rainfall total last year 55.97" while I had like 62.65". DFW is eastward and often times the heavier rainfall is in West Ft. Worth or the county west of it.

PS - Denton reported to tornados. Both EF1. One they called a Scud Tornado.

Yep I remember the cool and rainy conditions up here that summer as well with around 50" of precip. for that year here .
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I read an article regarding the current solar cycle and an interesting synchronicity popped up...the year '09...

Would think that a spotless sun wouldn't be as hot because isn't a sunspot a cooler part on the sun? The sun should be burning hotter now? I haven't taken time to study sunspots so what do I know?! lol

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Would think that a spotless sun wouldn't be as hot because isn't a sunspot a cooler part on the sun? The sun should be burning hotter now? I haven't taken time to study sunspots so what do I know?! lol

We also get coronal holes. It's a weird sun, and fascinating to see and read on.

Take some time Sparky and read up on it. It's affecting us all right now.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I remember '09 and it was a very rainy and cooler summer in North Texas.

Everyone was wondering what had happened?

 

Our official rainfall was 40.89" in 2009 at the airport.

Average is around 32"

 

DFW rainfall total last year 55.97" while I had like 62.65". DFW is eastward and often times the heavier rainfall is in West Ft. Worth or the county west of it.

 

PS - Denton reported to tornados. Both EF1. One they called a Scud Tornado.

A lot like 2009 here this year. Interestingly followed an extended drought period from 2005 until early '09. 2009 was a lot like 1976 also. Good links to appropriate times in the solar and ENSO cycles are always a good aid in knowing what is ahead in longer ranges. Should be a lot more severe weather in our areas over the long term, if climatology is right.

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We've received heavy downpours so heavy recently, it felt as though the oxygen was being pushed out of the atmosphere.

Hard to breath. Many of our rains have been especially heavy. A lot of lightning.

This can't be unconnected to our solar cycle.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We've received heavy downpours so heavy recently, it felt as though the oxygen was being pushed out of the atmosphere.

Hard to breath. Many of our rains have been especially heavy. A lot of lightning.

This can't be unconnected to our solar cycle.

The more I study the data, the more I see this summer being exceptionally wet and cool in the southern Plains and parts of the MW. In fact, the pattern over here in the desert SW is basically a month behind schedule. We are experiencing BN temps and increased moisture next week and the forseable future. Might even have upper 70’s for highs here next weekend for Mother’s Day! What a treat that will be. Heck, low 80’s would even be phenomenal. Normals here are right in the low 90’s.

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Not a good look through the 1st half of Summer off the Euro Seasonal...unless you like a cool...maybe chilly summer for some???

 

Edit: Those GL's look darn chilly...

 

:rolleyes:  Yeah, boo-n-hiss to that Tom. I know you're just the messenger so not gonna shoot ya  :lol:    

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Grand Rapids has not seen a lot of very warm days yet this year. Yes, we have had several days were the temperatures have reached the 70’s Here it the break down for Grand Rapids for 2019 70° days 5 that is 4 in April and 1 in May. 60° days 13 1 in March, 10 in April and 2 here in May so far. and that is it. In terms of how few warm days GR has had so far this year. 2019 will have the latest first 80° of the 2000’s in fact the last time GR had its first 80 day later was in 1997. At this time it is dark off to the NW and the current temperature here at my house is 49°

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Grand Rapids has not seen a lot of very warm days yet this year. Yes, we have had several days were the temperatures have reached the 70’s Here it the break down for Grand Rapids for 2019 70° days 5 that is 4 in April and 1 in May. 60° days 13 1 in March, 10 in April and 2 here in May so far. and that is it. In terms of how few warm days GR has had so far this year. 2019 will have the latest first 80° of the 2000’s in fact the last time GR had its first 80 day later was in 1997. At this time it is dark off to the NW and the current temperature here at my house is 49°

This pattern has all the characteristics of extending itself throughout the summer months.  Question, was there a year in Grand Rapids that did not see a 90F or higher temp?  I think there had to been a year or two back in the 90's.  The reason why I'm asking is that this summer may produce one of those years where 90 degree temps are far fetched.  I expect to see a below average summer of 90's across the MW/GL's this summer.

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This pattern has all the characteristics of extending itself throughout the summer months.  Question, was there a year in Grand Rapids that did not see a 90F or higher temp?  I think there had to been a year or two back in the 90's.  The reason why I'm asking is that this summer may produce one of those years where 90 degree temps are far fetched.  I expect to see a below average summer of 90's across the MW/GL's this summer.

Yes there have been 2 years in Grand Rapids recorded history that did not reach 90° or better 1951 and 2014. Both years had more warm days by May 9th then this year has had. Even 1992 the year without a summer seen more warm days by May 9th then this year has seen. 

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Yes there have been 2 years in Grand Rapids recorded history that did not reach 90° or better 1951 and 2014. Both years had more warm days by May 9th then this year has had. Even 1992 the year without a summer seen more warm days by May 9th then this year has seen.

Thanks for the stat check! If history is to be served as guidance, then the upcoming Summer may not be pretty around the Lakes region.

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Yes there have been 2 years in Grand Rapids recorded history that did not reach 90° or better 1951 and 2014. Both years had more warm days by May 9th then this year has had. Even 1992 the year without a summer seen more warm days by May 9th then this year has seen. 

 

That's shocking me two ways. First, that there was actually a 90F day that summer in GR?!?. 2nd, that THIS spring's been even more dismal. I knew it's been bad but OMG that's crazy

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Thanks for the stat check! If history is to be served as guidance, then the upcoming Summer may not be pretty around the Lakes region.

I'd love that. It's going to get above 90 here, that's a given even in the coldest Summers. Maybe Toledo won't, though? Or they will but only a couple times? I don't know if they've had any Summers in recorded history without a 90.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I'd love that. It's going to get above 90 here, that's a given even in the coldest Summers. Maybe Toledo won't, though? Or they will but only a couple times? I don't know if they've had any Summers in recorded history without a 90.

I think the father east you are you’re going to be in a spot where the long term long wave ridge will want to pop every now and then throughout the summer. Maybe moreso in August??? Hey, at least you won’t be seeing crazy heat and humidity like you do out in the plains! When are you moving again?

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