2019 Spring/Summer Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

I think the father east you are you’re going to be in a spot where the long term long wave ridge will want to pop every now and then throughout the summer. Maybe moreso in August??? Hey, at least you won’t be seeing crazy heat and humidity like you do out in the plains! When are you moving again?

Got moved back but it's finalized now. I'll be moving into my Toledo area apartment July 15.

[Stormhunter87]

Yes there have been 2 years in Grand Rapids recorded history that did not reach 90° or better 1951 and 2014. Both years had more warm days by May 9th then this year has had. Even 1992 the year without a summer seen more warm days by May 9th then this year has seen.

Interesting because that was caused by the Mt. Pinatubo erruption.

[Stormy]

Interesting because that was caused by the Mt. Pinatubo erruption.

Yes I remember reading articles way back then stating that that eruption was the cause of the cooler weather.

[Tom]

As we progress through summer, I'm really interested to see if the Nino continues on into the late Summer months, esp early Autumn.  The cooler subsurface waters across the equatorial PAC are growing beneath the slowly eroding warm pool which had very warm pockets that have all but disappeared.

 

 

 

The latest Euro seasonal has steadily trended towards ENOS neutral conditions by Aug/Sep which leads me to believe those cooler subsurface waters are working against the Nino to continue for much longer.

 

Here were the last 3 runs off the Euro for ENSO 3.4...

 

March...

 

 

April...

 

 

 

May...(current)

 

 

 

With that being said, the summer overall across our Sub isn't likely to experience much heat, if any, throughout the entire summer season.

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

As we progress through summer, I'm really interested to see if the Nino continues on into the late Summer months, esp early Autumn. The cooler subsurface waters across the equatorial PAC are growing beneath the slowly eroding warm pool which had very warm pockets that have all but disappeared.

 

 

The latest Euro seasonal has steadily trended towards ENOS neutral conditions by Aug/Sep which leads me to believe those cooler subsurface waters are working against the Nino to continue for much longer.

 

Here were the last 3 runs off the Euro for ENSO 3.4...

 

March...

 

 

April...

 

 

 

May...(current)

 

 

 

With that being said, the summer overall across our Sub isn't likely to experience much heat, if any, throughout the entire summer season.

 

 

 

 

I very largely agree with all of this.

[Tom]

The JMA monthlies came out over the weekend and basically somewhat agrees with the rest of the global models across the board...active/wet and cool south...near normal for the rest of the board.

 

June temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201905.D0600_gl2.png

 

July temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201905.D0600_gl2.png

 

Aug temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201905.D0600_gl2.png

 

 

 

It's also interesting to note, that it has cooled off the equatorial PAC SST's compared to its previous run and the one prior quite significantly.  Check out the last 3 runs for the target month of June:

 

2 runs ago...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201903.D0700_gls.png

 

 

1 run ago...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201904.D1100_gls.png

 

Current run...another noticeable trend among the various models is I'm seeing a trend that the warmer SST's are converging over the central PAC instead of leaning towards the eastern PAC.  

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201905.D0600_gls.png

[OKwx2k4]

The JMA monthlies came out over the weekend and basically somewhat agrees with the rest of the global models across the board...active/wet and cool south...near normal for the rest of the board.

 

June temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201905.D0600_gl2.png

 

July temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201905.D0600_gl2.png

 

Aug temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201905.D0600_gl2.png

 

 

 

It's also interesting to note, that it has cooled off the equatorial PAC SST's compared to its previous run and the one prior quite significantly. Check out the last 3 runs for the target month of June:

 

2 runs ago...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201903.D0700_gls.png

 

 

1 run ago...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201904.D1100_gls.png

 

Current run...another noticeable trend among the various models is I'm seeing a trend that the warmer SST's are converging over the central PAC instead of leaning towards the eastern PAC.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201905.D0600_gls.png

Shifts quite a lot of heat out in a short while.

Warms the waters off the Baja considerably... Interesting changes.

 

Big Pacific Typhoon season upcoming? Going to be worth watching.

[Niko]

Not Spring yet here in SEMI. Lows tanite are bottoming out in the upper 30s to around 40F. There will be a wcf as well, probably in the low 30s.

[Tom]

Shifts quite a lot of heat out in a short while.

Warms the waters off the Baja considerably... Interesting changes.

 

Big Pacific Typhoon season upcoming? Going to be worth watching.

Ya, could be and once we get into late summer/early Fall we will be see some early signals of what next year's LRC may look like.

[OKwx2k4]

Ya, could be and once we get into late summer/early Fall we will be see some early signals of what next year's LRC may look like.

If all the cards fall in place, folks who like long, warm autumns are going to be disappointed. May be one of the "shortest" summers of my lifetime, if my thoughts hold up.

[VMB443]

Wish the resolution on this was a bit better, but an interesting graphic from MKX

[Tom]

Did we just reach the peak in terms of the ENSO 3.4 regions SST anomaly??

 

 

 

IMO, the JAMSTEC has led the way for predicting the possibility of the Nino's demise by late Summer.  For the 5th run in a row, it has maintained the idea that ENSO neutral conditions prevail by late Summer/early Autumn.  

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1may2019.gif

 

Some notable changes are beginning to raise eye brows in the NE PAC and central PAC as we progress through the remainder of this year.  Firstly, the model has significantly warmed the region near NW NAMER where the media has dubbed the "warm blob".  This isn't the only model seeing this as the CFSv2 is also blow torching this region.  More importantly, the JAMSTEC shows much more "blues" around South America as we head into Autumn.  Are those cooler sub surface waters starting to make in impact into the modeling??  I believe so.  Thinking longer term, per the ENSO prediction from the JAMSTEC, if indeed we head into a La Nina for the following Summer 2020, the oceans will begin to cool quite a bit and that sets the stage for a drop in Global Temps as we would be in the midst of the Solar Minimum.  It's fascinating if this does in fact happen and coincide with idea from many scientists and mets across the Globe that Global Cooling is on our doorstep.  Let's see what Mother Nature shows us all in the coming years.

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2019.1may2019.gif

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2019.1may2019.gif

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Wish the resolution on this was a bit better, but an interesting graphic from MKX

I thought the leaves popped out rather early here actually. Trees started up around mid-April and they're all fully grown by this point. Last year I didn't see the trees starting up until early May.

[snowstorm83]

I thought the leaves popped out rather early here actually. Trees started up around mid-April and they're all fully grown by this point. Last year I didn't see the trees starting up until early May.

The harsh winter did end rather abruptly once the March 10-13 floods/thaw hit. Compared to last year when April was well below average with multiple snowfalls.

[OKwx2k4]

Did we just reach the peak in terms of the ENSO 3.4 regions SST anomaly??

 

 

 

IMO, the JAMSTEC has led the way for predicting the possibility of the Nino's demise by late Summer. For the 5th run in a row, it has maintained the idea that ENSO neutral conditions prevail by late Summer/early Autumn.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1may2019.gif

 

Some notable changes are beginning to raise eye brows in the NE PAC and central PAC as we progress through the remainder of this year. Firstly, the model has significantly warmed the region near NW NAMER where the media has dubbed the "warm blob". This isn't the only model seeing this as the CFSv2 is also blow torching this region. More importantly, the JAMSTEC shows much more "blues" around South America as we head into Autumn. Are those cooler sub surface waters starting to make in impact into the modeling?? I believe so. Thinking longer term, per the ENSO prediction from the JAMSTEC, if indeed we head into a La Nina for the following Summer 2020, the oceans will begin to cool quite a bit and that sets the stage for a drop in Global Temps as we would be in the midst of the Solar Minimum. It's fascinating if this does in fact happen and coincide with idea from many scientists and mets across the Globe that Global Cooling is on our doorstep. Let's see what Mother Nature shows us all in the coming years.

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2019.1may2019.gif

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2019.1may2019.gif

Those have to be 2 of the prettiest maps I've saw in a long time. If the Pacific is going to put a warm ring around Hawaii with a cold spot in the middle, or north of it, rather. I know what happens downstream of that. No summer+early cool fall+real winter in 2019-20 = one happy Oklahoma boy.

[OKwx2k4]

So in questioning the authenticity of the El Nino, we will not qualify in trimonthlies (the original standard) at all will we?

 

N. Hemisphere was more Nina/interphase than anything else, right?

[Tom]

Other mets/scientists are noticing what I've been digging up in terms of the oceanic temps across the equatorial PAC...

 

 

 

Looking at some of the @NWSCPC ENSO products this morning - the upwelling Kelvin wave is starting to surface in the Eastern Pacific. Central Pacific still looks fairly warm for now. The overall subsurface warmth is actually below normal for the first time in over a year.

 

[OKwx2k4]

So in questioning the authenticity of the El Nino, we will not qualify in trimonthlies (the original standard) at all will we?

 

N. Hemisphere was more Nina/interphase than anything else, right?

This may have been confusing, but what I meant was atmosperically like a Nina/hybrid, rather than a Niño.

 

Either way, "Bye bye" El Niño.

[Tom]

This may have been confusing, but what I meant was atmosperically like a Nina/hybrid, rather than a Niño.

 

Either way, "Bye bye" El Niño.

Yup, in the early going of the development of this years LRC, a distinct SW Flow/SER evolved and was characteristic of a Niña. Certainly behaved unlike a typical Niño. Just another example of how useful this long range tool has been.

[OKwx2k4]

Yup, in the early going of the development of this years LRC, a distinct SW Flow/SER evolved and was characteristic of a Niña. Certainly behaved unlike a typical Niño. Just another example of how useful this long range tool has been.

Very very true.

[Tom]

Is the CFSv2 playing catch up???  It's been the JAMSTEC model that has taken the lead regarding predicting the evolution of the ENSO through the remainder of this Summer.  Some interesting developments are taking place across the eastern equatorial PAC and will likely continue to beat down the warmer ENSO 3.4 region as Summer progresses.  Check out the last few frames from the latest depth anomalies across the equatorial PAC.  A rather large subsurface cold pocket has developed off the coast of South America.

 

 

 

The last number of runs, the CFSv2 has trended colder after a few weeks showing a Super Nino.  Warm bias???

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Is the CFSv2 playing catch up??? It's been the JAMSTEC model that has taken the lead regarding predicting the evolution of the ENSO through the remainder of this Summer. Some interesting developments are taking place across the eastern equatorial PAC and will likely continue to beat down the warmer ENSO 3.4 region as Summer progresses. Check out the last few frames from the latest depth anomalies across the equatorial PAC. A rather large subsurface cold pocket has developed off the coast of South America.

 

 

 

The last number of runs, the CFSv2 has trended colder after a few weeks showing a Super Nino. Warm bias???

 

 

 

Looks like the CFS is back in its 3 month offseason. It just totally sucks as we approach the core of a season. Does better at 6 month leads. It was the first in my book to nail down the cold pockets and rainfall of the past winter but it ran at a 6 month lead and failed within 3 months. Just something to keep in mind.

 

Also, warm bias is correct.

[Tom]

Last night's Canadian monthlies came out and it paints a very cool (chilly?) summer across the heartland of the nation...

 

 

 

[Stormhunter87]

Last night's Canadian monthlies came out and it paints a very cool (chilly?) summer across the heartland of the nation...

 

 

 

That is some cold. Not great for pool side summer but I'm good with a chilly summer.

[Tom]

That is some cold. Not great for pool side summer but I'm good with a chilly summer.

I'm beginning to wonder how many good pool/beach/boating weekends there will be this summer.  Hopefully the weekends have better timing and nature can deliver some enjoyable days.

[Tom]

Euro Seasonal for the Summer...

 

 

[Stormhunter87]

Euro Seasonal for the Summer...

Chilly! The sun has gone super quiet as well.

[OKwx2k4]

The end of the longer range of the GFS won't be right either. The cold reloads and it's summer. Crazy. Warm ridging looks to continue trying to get itself vertical over the west coast and E. Pac. As long as this is in progress, summer is over down here before it even starts, with exception of 2-3 weeks in very very late summer.

[OKwx2k4]

I know I wasnt around here in '09 or '13-14 either, but this is bringing back strong memories of those times.

[Niko]

I can see a BN temp June here in SEMI as no 90s are forecasted at all throughout the entire month. I would not be surprise if this Summer goes BN tempwise and AN precipwise.

[Andie]

The Euro appears to be giving Texas a cooler summer vs. CanSIPS. The Euro has been pretty close for us.

Based on Oklahomas summer outlook, I'm leaning toward the Euro.

 

We will only see 81* today, 83* tomorrow before we go into Low 90'sf or a week.

It's windy and partly cloudy so this is not your mothers summer in Texas!

Rain returns in a week though

[Andie]

1 died and 5 injured when high winds from thunderstorm made a construction crane collapse in Dallas, Sunday.

Apartments and parking garage both had major collapsing.

 

https://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/Photos-Crane-Collapses-in-Downtown-Dallas-511046671.html

 

[Niko]

1 died and 5 injured when high winds from thunderstorm made a construction crane collapse in Dallas, Sunday.

Apartments and parking garage both had major collapsing.

 

https://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/Photos-Crane-Collapses-in-Downtown-Dallas-511046671.html

 

0DFA719F-606D-4160-B44B-D5DA27753316-1602-00000109DD502E5C.jpg

It has already been posted already in the June thread. No worries, I'll delete mine.

[Tom]

For several runs in a row, the JAMSTEC was suggesting a La Nada later this year, but that has flipped and now agreeing with the other modeling that the Nino may continue through the rest of this year into 2020.  It's nowcast forecast for the Summer has significantly turned colder and wetter across the central CONUS.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2019.1jun2019.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2019.1jun2019.gif

 

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2019.gif

 

 

Who wants a sneak peak for the Winter of '19/'20???  Very active Subtropical Jet with a solid Modoki Nino....

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2020.1jun2019.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2020.1jun2019.gif

[james1976]

For several runs in a row, the JAMSTEC was suggesting a La Nada later this year, but that has flipped and now agreeing with the other modeling that the Nino may continue through the rest of this year into 2020. It's nowcast forecast for the Summer has significantly turned colder and wetter across the central CONUS.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2019.1jun2019.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2019.1jun2019.gif

 

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2019.gif

 

 

Who wants a sneak peak for the Winter of '19/'20??? Very active Subtropical Jet with a solid Modoki Nino....

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2020.1jun2019.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2020.1jun2019.gif

That "sneak peak" for the win Haha. The country would get blasted this winter.

[OKwx2k4]

For several runs in a row, the JAMSTEC was suggesting a La Nada later this year, but that has flipped and now agreeing with the other modeling that the Nino may continue through the rest of this year into 2020. It's nowcast forecast for the Summer has significantly turned colder and wetter across the central CONUS.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2019.1jun2019.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2019.1jun2019.gif

 

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2019.gif

 

 

Who wants a sneak peak for the Winter of '19/'20??? Very active Subtropical Jet with a solid Modoki Nino....

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2020.1jun2019.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2020.1jun2019.gif

I can't see the images for some reason. Hmmm.

Edit: Saw them. Holy moly. Winter to remember.

[CentralNebWeather]

For several runs in a row, the JAMSTEC was suggesting a La Nada later this year, but that has flipped and now agreeing with the other modeling that the Nino may continue through the rest of this year into 2020. It's nowcast forecast for the Summer has significantly turned colder and wetter across the central CONUS.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2019.1jun2019.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2019.1jun2019.gif

 

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2019.gif

 

 

Who wants a sneak peak for the Winter of '19/'20??? Very active Subtropical Jet with a solid Modoki Nino....

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2020.1jun2019.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2020.1jun2019.gif

That would be quite a winter in the US if these maps verified. And I thought last winter was something around here.

[Tom]

The JMA seasonal came out this morning and I'm starting to feel pretty confident that this Summer will finish on a cool and abrupt finish.  Both the JMA/CFSv2 are beginning to show nearly identical placements of where ridging should develop up in western Canada/NW NAMER where the "warm blob" has parked itself.  Of note also, is the early (I mean early) signs of the late Summer Vortex spinning near the Archipelago region which gives me credence that this will evolve into next year's LRC pattern of a strong North American Vortex.  Hint, Hint...Wink Wink...Not to get to far ahead of myself, but my eye brows are starting to rise at the idea of how wild next cold season could end up becoming for our Sub next Winter.  Before we get into that discussion, lets finish up with Summer (or lack thereof). 

 

For the time being, nearly every single climate model is not showing any signs of heat (except for the south...briefly?) for our Sub and clearly this Summer is trending towards a normal one, albeit a bit cool in some locations so far.  Here are some maps below showing what the JMA is showing for the 2nd half of Summer.

 

July....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201906.D1000_gl2.png

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201906.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

August...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201906.D1000_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201906.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

 

 

July-Sep Global SST pattern...Modoki Nino hangs on...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R90_1/Y201906.D1000_gls.png

[Tom]

Something to keep an eye, but if the CFSv2 continues to trend stronger and more amplified along the west coast of our continent, we will not be Frying in July.  I can promise you there will be some deep troughs that hit our Sub if this pattern verifies.

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Something to keep an eye, but if the CFSv2 continues to trend stronger and more amplified along the west coast of our continent, we will not be Frying in July. I can promise you there will be some deep troughs that hit our Sub if this pattern verifies.

 

 

 

Perfection. Could not ask for a better pattern. Hoping to catch a dry NW flow for a stretch though. Rainfall has slowed considerably over the last 10 days but the ground is still ridiculously full.