2019 Spring/Summer Discussion

[jaster220]

Here are some maps below showing what the JMA is showing for the 2nd half of Summer.

 

  I'm still waiting for the first half to show up 

[Stormy]

An early frost this year would be devastating for all of the late planted crops!

[Niko]

  I'm still waiting for the first half to show up 

[Niko]

An early frost this year would be devastating for all of the late planted crops!

Its been a weird weather pattern throughout this Spring Season.

[Stacsh]

Its been a weird weather pattern throughout this Spring Season.

Summer is coming for at least a couple weeks it looks like.  With the way it's going, won't last long. 

[Niko]

Summer is coming for at least a couple weeks it looks like.  With the way it's going, won't last long. 

I agree

[OKwx2k4]

If you love summer, I'd love the next 45 days really well if I were you.

[Tom]

It's been a while since I've used this technique to predict longer range patterns.  Needless to say, I'm seeing the modeling picking up on riding developing across N Canada for Week 2 where there is ongoing "warming" in both the 10mb and 30mb levels.  While the high lats warm, the mid lats are showing cooling which indicate to me there will be a trough-like pattern 2-3 weeks from now.  With that being said, once we get past this week, the pattern will cool off to close out the month and August may actually end up how we started this summer and end up on the cooler and wetter side.

 

 

At the tail end of this animation, one will notice the deeper blues showing up across the U.S. and warmer colors across N Canada.  If you also see the warmer colors that showed up across the central CONUS in mid/late June, this correlated pretty well with the hot spell the developed very late in June into July.

 

 

 

 

 

Compare the last images above at 30mb to the most recent CFSv2 run for August.  Can you spot the similarities in placement of the "warming" and rising heights????  Interesting....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

The JMA seasonal came out today and its basically lining up with the CFSv2 somewhat with the mean "ridge" to shift west into the inter-mountain west.  This shift, should result in a NW Flow pattern for the month of August.  The model isn't really too aggressive with BN temps but I'd imagine there will be a large pocket across the central CONUS if this pattern does indeed develop.

 

 

Temps/Precip pattern...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201907.D1000_gl2.png

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201907.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

 

 

The "warm blob" is to hold it's large scale warmth next month while the eastern PAC cools off significantly.  

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201907.D1000_gls.png

[Niko]

I wonder how many 90 degree days this Summa season will have to offer for SEMI. So far, running low.

[Tom]

That's a wrap!  Overall, the Summer around here was pleasant and flew by way to quick.  It started off rather chilly and wet but then the heat ramped up later in July and early August.  We had a bit of everything and enough storms that kept things active at times which was satisfying.  Parts of the Upper Midwest/Plains/S Plains ended up below normal in the temp dept while up near the GL's/MW you can say it ended up near normal.

 

 

 

 

As for precip, wet across the central and southern plains and surprisingly dry across IA/IL??  About normal across the Upper MW/GL's with pockets of BN precip.  Texas ended up drier than normal and it certainly fried later in the Summer.

[OKwx2k4]

Overall, not a bad summer. Actually one of the most beautiful "summers of plenty" here in the lower Ozarks that I can remember. Humid as the rainforest at times, but truly beautiful. Will remember this one for a long time. The total average temps don't really tell the tale when you hit the avg high at 3pm but a rain shower at 4pm knocks 15 degrees off it so your evening is perfect. Happened on 30 or more of the days this summer. Every day but 6 in July there was a shower here or nearby. Even if it was tiny. Lakes and rivers are full as they've been in 2 decades. For the season I hate the most, it was truly beautiful in nearly every way.

 

That said, glad it's over! On to better seasons, like any of the other three!

Praying this Autumn matches the beauty of the season we just left. If so, it will truly be magnificent.

[Minny_Weather]

The humidity this Summer was unbearable in Nebraska, but nearly nonexistent here in Ohio minus a week in July. That's a first.

[OKwx2k4]

The humidity this Summer was unbearable in Nebraska, but nearly nonexistent here in Ohio minus a week in July. That's a first.

I'm jealous. I could do 90/70 every day with no humidity. This crap is brutal this year. I worked 3rd shift last night and about had a freaking heat stroke on humidity alone. I don't like to rant about my climate much anymore, because most of the time this area is the cool spot here, but this one has been sucktacular in terms of heat indexes and near 80 dews.