3/9 - 3/10 Major Plains/W GL's Cutter

[Tom]

MPX going with an early 7-13” with possible thunder snow and possible 2”+ per hour on saturday for the metro.

I'm seeing a redic trowal feature with this storm and the good ol' MSP magnet is going to showcase this yet again.  Your area has been the magnet for these meso scale features and an example of how the LRC can play a role with these circumstances in a local area. BTW, this storm in the previous 2 cycles (Jan 18th-20th & Nov 29th-Dec 2nd) both had a trowal-like feature and it was an occluding storm in Cycle # 2 across the same regions it is currently going to hit. One can see how seasonal adjustments in the Spring months can be useful as it will be the case in Cycle # 4 for this storm system.

[gosaints]

Looking like a west metro crusher as modeled.  

[East Dubzz]

We’re going to get a good amount of rain, but it’s going to be relatively short-lived. Lots of rain in a short amount of time doesn’t seem ideal right now.

[gosaints]

We’re going to get a good amount of rain, but it’s going to be relatively short-lived. Lots of rain in a short amount of time doesn’t seem ideal right now.

How much snow pack do you have??

[gosaints]

Guessing the NAM starts its cave to the warmer models around here now

[East Dubzz]

How much snow pack do you have??

I think we probably have around 4-5” or so left on the ground. All super compacted and frozen over, with a lot of frost depth, obviously, as well.

 

I’m just not sure where this rain is going to go when it falls this weekend, because the ground certainly isn’t going to absorb it super well.

[St Paul Storm]

Guessing the NAM starts its cave to the warmer models around here now

Not through hr 48. Looks south and east.

[gosaints]

Not through hr 48. Looks south and east.

Final outcome probably wont come into focus until we get a sample.  You should be gold.  Wouldnt be surprised to see some models move the good stuff north of you today only to come back a bit.  The snowpack is stupendous

[Tom]

06z Euro...the winds on the backside of this storm are impressive and widespread...

[gosaints]

Not through hr 48. Looks south and east.

Rip roaring fast.  Gonna be alot of pingers somewhere.  Critical thincknesses and temp profiles are riding the edge all over the place

[BrianJK]

What are the chances N. WI gets in on the action?

[gosaints]

What are the chances N. WI gets in on the action?

high

[Tom]

What are the chances N. WI gets in on the action?

Very good...are you going up this weekend?

[BrianJK]

Very good...are you going up this weekend?

Will be more inclined if double digits start looking like a real probability. Just getting over the flu so we’ll see how I’m feeling too.

[St Paul Storm]

12z GFs and FV3 hold serve. Canadian is seen as a warm outlier by MPX. They have no mention of mix or liquid for the metro.

[St Paul Storm]

12z GEFS. Looking good.

[gosaints]

12z GFs and FV3 hold serve. Canadian is seen as a warm outlier by MPX. They have no mention of mix or liquid for the metro.

Your good.  By 1st glance my guess is the GFS is overdoing WAA up there contributing to your lower kuchera totals on that model.  I am gonna ping. 

 

The GFS is way warmer at the surface than the NAM

[gosaints]

4-10 in the Point and click.  terribly tough forecast across the La Crosse forecast area

[gosaints]

The Euro has saturday afternoon temps from 34-36 across the metro as well

[St Paul Storm]

The Euro has saturday afternoon temps from 34-36 across the metro as well

It’s been showing that for a while now. Here’s MPX’s take:

 

“Precipitation will rapidly develop over the Plains Friday night

as strong kinematics encounter deep moisture. The degree of

isentropic upglide ahead of the surface cyclone will maintain a

band of heavy precipitation arcing around the system. This band

will begin to reach southwestern MN Saturday morning and spread

eastward across the rest of the area shortly thereafter. Modest

warmer air aloft should wetbulb below freezing almost immediately

after the onset of the heavy precip, so we are not anticipating a

prolonged period of a mixed wintry precip. The one exception may

be across far southern MN into central WI where wetbulb

temperatures aloft may remain above freezing nearest the surface

cyclone track.”

[gosaints]

It’s been showing that for a while now. Here’s MPX’s take:

 

“Precipitation will rapidly develop over the Plains Friday night

as strong kinematics encounter deep moisture. The degree of

isentropic upglide ahead of the surface cyclone will maintain a

band of heavy precipitation arcing around the system. This band

will begin to reach southwestern MN Saturday morning and spread

eastward across the rest of the area shortly thereafter. Modest

warmer air aloft should wetbulb below freezing almost immediately

after the onset of the heavy precip, so we are not anticipating a

prolonged period of a mixed wintry precip. The one exception may

be across far southern MN into central WI where wetbulb

temperatures aloft may remain above freezing nearest the surface

cyclone track.”

The Euro ultimately mixes it down up there.  Just something to watch

[St Paul Storm]

The Euro ultimately mixes it down up there. Just something to watch

Wouldn’t take much of a shift in the low track to start causing concern. I fully expect the afternoon disco to start mentioning the possibility of thermal issues.

[gosaints]

The NAMS are considerably SE of 12z.  Still the persistent thermal issues. 

[gosaints]

Gfs follows suit

[St Paul Storm]

They talked about the warmer air, but still not convinced it will make it this far north.

 

Ahead of this system, a surge of much warmer air aloft will

move across Iowa, and into far southern Minnesota Saturday morning.

Thermal profiles indicated that the depth of the warm air could lead

to a mixture of sleet, freezing rain, or rain along the Iowa border

for a few hours. How far north this warmer air moves remains in

question. However, based on the current surface low track, and how

this is a favored climatology heavy snowfall track for southern

Minnesota, will continue to support a board area of heavy snowfall

of 6 to 12 inches.

[gosaints]

They talked about the warmer air, but still not convinced it will make it this far north.

 

Ahead of this system, a surge of much warmer air aloft will

move across Iowa, and into far southern Minnesota Saturday morning.

Thermal profiles indicated that the depth of the warm air could lead

to a mixture of sleet, freezing rain, or rain along the Iowa border

for a few hours. How far north this warmer air moves remains in

question. However, based on the current surface low track, and how

this is a favored climatology heavy snowfall track for southern

Minnesota, will continue to support a board area of heavy snowfall

of 6 to 12 inches.

18z models looked better there surface low south. Gefs says get ready

[Tom]

00z Euro...MSP on north and west look prime and the rest of the Northwoods....

[St Paul Storm]

With a monster rainstorm looming mid next week I’m not so sure I’m rooting for 7-12” of wet, heavy snow anymore. But, here it comes. Watch has been upgraded to a warning.

[Grizzcoat]

With a monster rainstorm looming mid next week I’m not so sure I’m rooting for 7-12” of wet, heavy snow anymore. But, here it comes. Watch has been upgraded to a warning.

Yep- I agree. I love winter and all but owning home puts things into a different perspective when you got 2"+ in the snow pack with another 2-3" forecasted  over a small time frame and temps pushing 60F.  Personally not concerned about river flooding (that will take awhile) but its the urban and small streams that are concerning. I have no clue how all the water is going to effectively drain away with the frost so deep....Most peoples gutters and down spouts are froze solid - worsening things in trying to get the water AWAY from your foundation.

[St Paul Storm]

Yep- I agree. I love winter and all but owning home puts things into a different perspective when you got 2"+ in the snow pack with another 2-3" forecasted  over a small time frame and temps pushing 60F.  Personally not concerned about river flooding (that will take awhile) but its the urban and small streams that are concerning. I have no clue how all the water is going to effectively drain away with the frost so deep....Most peoples gutters and down spouts are froze solid - worsening things in trying to get the water AWAY from your foundation.

My house sits up about 20 ft higher than the lake so no concern there. But I’m about 5 ft below street level. With ice covered sewer drains and my neighbors plowed snow banks melting into my yard, I am really concerned right now. We could have close to 30” otg after this storm. The amount of water flowing towards my garage is not something I want to think about. The drainage pipes in the yard are frozen shut even with the heated wires running through them. Not good, at all.

[gosaints]

This storm will be cold enough that much of the liquid around here at least will be absorbed by the pack.  Next weeks storm is a whole different animal

[gosaints]

That trowel feature is definetly showing a real warm tongue.  Will be fascinating to watch in real time.

[gosaints]

Dat warm tongue.  PING PING PING

 

[St Paul Storm]

^ that is one ugly map. Bust in the making, or the NAM being stupid?

[gosaints]

^ that is one ugly map. Bust in the making, or the NAM being stupid?

Every model is very close to showing that solution in the upper levels.  Gonna be a now cast 

[St Paul Storm]

12z HRRR past hr 30 (to be taken with a grain of salt) has 32F all the way up to Winnipeg! Lol. 12z 3km NAM also a bit warmer than previous runs. In fact, it shows Gosaints getting snow before me.

[St Paul Storm]

Every model is very close to showing that solution in the upper levels.  Gonna be a now cast

 

Gotta play the thermal game if you want a big dog in March. The dividing line between ping and heavy snow is thin.

[Minny_Weather]

We're getting the signature pre-storm fog. Bit of a buzzkill knowing what this storm is bringing but it's March so oh well. 28.6*F.

[gosaints]

Gotta play the thermal game if you want a big dog in March. The dividing line between ping and heavy snow is thin.

Many models pull the warm tongue right up the MS river valley

[St Paul Storm]

Many models pull the warm tongue right up the MS river valley

MPX slowly babystepping down the totals. Now 7-10”. We’ll see. Still going to cause issues unless we only get a few inches which seems unlikely.