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How many 20"+ snowstorms has DC had since 2005? Not talking up in the hills, but the actual city.

That varies significantly depending on location within the city/beltway. I currently live inside the beltway between Glen Echo and Cabin John. Since I started keeping track in 2008, I have observed five storms totaling 20"+, with two of those storms totaling 30"+.

 

The recent blizzard was one of the largest I've experienced, second to the "snowmageddons". It dropped 35" here, with 50"+ falling 40-50mi to the WNW, and 40"+ falling 15mi to the WNW. As is typical with our snowstorms, the majority of the storm was gentle, with the powerful winds, lightning/thunder, and epic rates/ratios confined to within a relatively brief 5-8hr window as the deformation band moved through.

 

I don't know how snowstorms work in the Denver area, but around here, if you fail to get into the deformation band, you'll almost always underperform on snow totals and wind speeds, and in most cases, upper level conditions favoring dendritic crystal growth are confined to the deformation zone, so if you get skunked by the deformation band, it pretty much assures a bust.

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Yeah, Denver gets about as many huge snowstorms as the I-95 cities do and gets quite a bit more snow overall. If you want to factor the hilly, suburban areas on the East Coast like western Maryland into a comparison then it's only fair to look at the snowier foothill locales like Golden and Boulder when talking about the I-25 region. Colorado generally crushes Phil's area.

That depends on what your criteria for a "huge" snowstorm is. Regarding seasonal average snowfall, you're generally correct. The lowland Mid-Atlantic is historically feast-or-famine, with very large snowstorms often followed by extended periods without much snowfall, etc.

 

That said, our heaviest snowfalls are generally larger (in both accumulations and liquid equivalent) than those observed in the Denver area, as we have access to increased moisture loading and dynamics associated with cyclogenesis.

 

For example, most of our great blizzards close to 4 feet of snow in their deformation zone. Recent storms that have done this include the recent 1/16 blizzard, the 2/10 blizzard, the 2/03 blizzard, and the 1/96 blizzard. If you look farther up the coast, into NYC/New England you can find a larger quantity of storms, some dropping over 5 feet of snow in their deformation zones.

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ECMWF ensemble mean holding at about 6-7" for the storm coming up. The operational buried us last night with 10-18" across the SLC area.

As I said yesterday somebody will get a lot of snow nearby, but I expect a couple of inches at a minimum for most.  

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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If you want to factor the hilly, suburban areas on the East Coast like western Maryland into a comparison then it's only fair to look at the snowier foothill locales like Golden and Boulder when talking about the I-25 region.

The "hills" you're referring to in W-MD/WV average 150-200"+ of snowfall every winter. They're well outside the DC metro area (about 70 miles away).

 

You have to cross three climate zones to get there, so I'm not sure what your point is.

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That depends on what your criteria for a "huge" snowstorm is. Regarding seasonal average snowfall, you're generally correct. The lowland Mid-Atlantic is historically feast-or-famine, with very large snowstorms often followed by extended periods without much snowfall, etc.

 

That said, our heaviest snowfalls are generally larger (in both accumulations and liquid equivalent) than those observed in the Denver area, as we have access to increased moisture loading and dynamics associated with cyclogenesis.

 

For example, most of our great blizzards close to 4 feet of snow in their deformation zone. Recent storms that have done this include the recent 1/16 blizzard, the 2/10 blizzard, the 2/03 blizzard, and the 1/96 blizzard. If you look farther up the coast, into NYC/New England you can find a larger quantity of storms, some dropping over 5 feet of snow in their deformation zones.

You have to cross three climate zones to get there, so I'm not sure what your poin

 

 

"Generally" correct? Dude, it's not even close. Denver's airport averages 58" of snowfall annually, compared to.... 15" at DCA.  66" at suburban Littleton compared to... 22" at suburban IAD.  Denver's worst winter on record of 21" would be an average winter at Baltimore and a snowy winter for DC.

 

Denver's biggest historic snowstorm dropped close to four feet in December 1913. More recently, the March 2003 storm dropped 32" of snow in less than 36 hours at the airport. 24" fell in a single calendar day in December 1982. The biggest snowstorms at the populous, lower elevated, eastern parts of the Denver region are very comparable to the populous parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, and in most cases superior. This is obviously more so the case as you head west and get into the actual Rocky Mountain foothills, where 2-4' storms are a relatively common occurrence historically.  

 

On the Atlantic Coastal Plain, maybe once you get up to someplace like Worcester or Manchester you can about match up with Boulder for snow climo, but south from that it's not much of a match.

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"Generally" correct? Dude, it's not even close. Denver's airport averages 58" of snowfall annually, compared to.... 15" at DCA. 66" at suburban Littleton compared to... 22" at suburban IAD. Denver's worst winter on record of 21" would be an average winter at Baltimore and a snowy winter for DC.

 

Denver's biggest historic snowstorm dropped close to four feet in December 1913. More recently, the March 2003 storm dropped 32" of snow in less than 36 hours at the airport. 24" fell in a single calendar day in December 1982. The biggest snowstorms at the populous, lower elevated, eastern parts of the Denver region are very comparable to the populous parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, and in most cases superior. This is obviously more so the case as you head west and get into the actual Rocky Mountain foothills, where 2-4' storms are a relatively common occurrence historically.

 

On the Atlantic Coastal Plain, maybe once you get up to someplace like Worcester or Manchester you can about match up with Boulder for snow climo, but south from that it's not much of a match.

You might want to research nor'easter climatology more thoroughly, because the snowfall statistics you're referencing are actually fairly run-of-the-mill by the standards of a strong nor'easter undergoing cyclogenesis.

 

You're looking back over a century to find a 40"+ snowfall in the Denver area. We've had at least five storms dump 40"+ in their particular deformation/frontogenic zones just over the last 20 years, and at least one of those has dropped 50"+. Looking back over the last 100 years, at least 17 blizzards have dropped over 2 feet in the area, possibly as many as 26 blizzards since 1895.

 

Technically speaking, the "snowmageddon" twins shared an upper level vorticity maximum/jet streak, and could be considered a single event. Either way, between 5-6 feet of snow fell in the span of 3 days over North-Central MD during that window, not including the additional 15-20" in the week prior.

 

So yes, the heaviest snowfalls in this region tend to be larger than those in the Denver area, despite Denver's superior overall snow climatology. Nobody was comparing average seasonal snowfall, so I'm not sure why you brought that up, actually.

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You might want to research nor'easter climatology more thoroughly, because the snowfall statistics you're referencing are actually fairly run-of-the-mill by the standards of a strong nor'easter undergoing cyclogenesis.

 

You're looking back over a century to find a 40"+ snowfall in the Denver area. We've had at least five storms dump 40"+ in their particular deformation/frontogenic zones just over the last 20 years, and at least one of those has dropped 50"+. Looking back over the last 100 years, at least 17 blizzards have dropped over 2 feet in the area, possibly as many as 26 blizzards since 1895.

 

Technically speaking, the "snowmageddon" twins shared an upper level vorticity maximum/jet streak, and could be considered a single event. Either way, between 5-6 feet of snow fell in the span of 3 days over North-Central MD during that window, not including the additional 15-20" in the week prior.

 

So yes, the heaviest snowfalls in this region tend to be larger than those in the Denver area, despite Denver's superior overall snow climatology. Nobody was comparing average seasonal snowfall, so I'm not sure why you brought that up, actually.

 

No, what I'm doing is comparing official airport statistics. You're using anecdotal examples, likely lifted from extreme outlying spotter reports, to make your case as opposed to just acknowledging that on a level playing field (airport observing stations), Denver's biggest snowstorms easily compare to the Mid Atlantic. 

 

Five storms over 40" in the DC/Baltimore area in the last 20 years? This is just disingenuous. DC's greatest ever measured snowstorm is 28" in 1922, well over a foot less than Denver. Baltimore's greatest is 29" set with the storm this year, still over a foot less than Denver.  

 

Remember, we're not talking about sketchy spotter data or about outlying areas 30 miles away here, because it's both harder to objectively quantify and it's even further damming to the idea that the Mid Atlantic somehow compares to the Front Range (hint: the mountain areas 20-30 miles outside of Denver get a lot of snow).

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No, what I'm doing is comparing official airport statistics. You're using anecdotal examples, likely lifted from extreme outlying spotter reports, to make your case as opposed to just acknowledging that on a level playing field (airport observing stations), Denver's biggest snowstorms easily compare to the Mid Atlantic. 

 

Five storms over 40" in the DC/Baltimore area in the last 20 years? This is just disingenuous. DC's greatest ever measured snowstorm is 28" in 1922, well over a foot less than Denver. Baltimore's greatest is 29" set with the storm this year, still over a foot less than Denver.  

 

Remember, we're not talking about sketchy spotter data or about outlying areas 30 miles away here, because it's both harder to objectively quantify and it's even further damming to the idea that the Mid Atlantic somehow compares to the Front Range (hint: the mountain areas 20-30 miles outside of Denver get a lot of snow).

 

There's no doubt the mid Atlantic has seen a heck of a 20 year stretch for historic storms. But historically, you're right that they don't get really big snowfalls as often as we do around here. I consider anything over 18" to be really big.

 

Of course, DEN's current location is poor for snow (they only got 13.1" with this last storm) and doesn't accurately reflect the metro area as a whole. To get a good idea of snowfall around the metro area from year to year, about halfway between Boulder and DEN's amounts gets you close.

A forum for the end of the world.

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No, what I'm doing is comparing official airport statistics. You're using anecdotal examples, likely lifted from extreme outlying spotter reports, to make your case as opposed to just acknowledging that on a level playing field (airport observing stations), Denver's biggest snowstorms easily compare to the Mid Atlantic.

Wait, what? There are a slew of various recognized climatological stations w/ observers that measure snowfall in the area (besides airports), including our NWS office, various military bases, and several college campuses w/ atmospheric science programs. Even "spotter reports" go through a good deal of quality control before being accepted.

 

Unfortunately, two of the three airports in this region are topographically challenged and unrepresentative of the region. Both DCA and BWI are located east of the Fall Line, and IAD sits in a bowl and is rainshadowed from S/W despite being somewhat more regionally representative. This is reflected in IAD's snowfall data, having recorded 33" in 24hrs as recently as February 2010. Unfortunately, the records there only go back to the 1960s.

 

Five storms over 40" in the DC/Baltimore area in the last 20 years? This is just disingenuous. DC's greatest ever measured snowstorm is 28" in 1922, well over a foot less than Denver. Baltimore's greatest is 29" set with the storm this year, still over a foot less than Denver. Remember, we're not talking about sketchy spotter data or about outlying areas 30 miles away here, because it's both harder to objectively quantify and it's even further damming to the idea that the Mid Atlantic somehow compares to the Front Range (hint: the mountain areas 20-30 miles outside of Denver get a lot of snow).

The problem is you're referring to snowfall data at locations that are largely unrepresentative of the region as a whole. The DC/Baltimore metro area isn't confined to the 5 miles on either side of I95.

 

I live maybe 8 miles from DCA, but ended up with 35", while DCA apparently finished with 17". The city of Potomac, MD (a few miles from me) finished with a 37" snow depth, which was measured by a longtime NWS employee.

 

Having lived here for awhile, I have a fairly thorough understanding of our snow climatology. :)

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Of course, DEN's current location is poor for snow (they only got 13.1" with this last storm) and doesn't accurately reflect the metro area as a whole. To get a good idea of snowfall around the metro area from year to year, about halfway between Boulder and DEN's amounts gets you close.

That's the same problem we have, unfortunately.

 

Obviously DCA speaks for itself, but BWI also sits east of the Fall Line, while IAD sits in a bowl and is rainshadowed to the west and south.

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Wait, what? There are a slew of various recognized climatological stations w/ observers that measure snowfall in the area (besides airports), including our NWS office, various military bases, and several college campuses w/ atmospheric science programs. Even "spotter reports" go through a good deal of quality control before being accepted.

 

Unfortunately, two of the three airports in this region are topographically challenged and unrepresentative of the region. Both DCA and BWI are located east of the Fall Line, and IAD sits in a bowl and is rainshadowed from S/W despite being somewhat more regionally representative. This is reflected in IAD's snowfall data, having recorded 33" in 24hrs as recently as February 2010. Unfortunately, the records there only go back to the 1960s.

 

 

The problem is you're referring to snowfall data at locations that are largely unrepresentative of the region as a whole. The DC/Baltimore metro area isn't confined to the 5 miles on either side of I95.

 

I live maybe 8 miles from DCA, but ended up with 35", while DCA apparently finished with 17". The city of Potomac, MD (a few miles from me) finished with a 37" snow depth, which was measured by a longtime NWS employee.

 

Having lived here for awhile, I have a fairly thorough understanding of our snow climatology. :)

When did you move?

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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When did you move?

I haven't moved out of the city yet. I didn't actually live at 3000ft in the mountains, if that's what you're referring to. :)

 

I'll probably be moving out of the city into a more affordable area within the next 2 years after a transfer into UMD and enter the graduate/postgraduate program, though. I've been able to stay financially afloat working for a landscaping/roofing company, but that's not gonna cut it going forward. Probably will end up in Germantown, Damascus, or Mount Airy.

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Wait, what? There are a slew of various recognized climatological stations w/ observers that measure snowfall in the area (besides airports), including our NWS office, various military bases, and several college campuses w/ atmospheric science programs. Even "spotter reports" go through a good deal of quality control before being accepted.

 

Unfortunately, two of the three airports in this region are topographically challenged and unrepresentative of the region. Both DCA and BWI are located east of the Fall Line, and IAD sits in a bowl and is rainshadowed from S/W despite being somewhat more regionally representative. This is reflected in IAD's snowfall data, having recorded 33" in 24hrs as recently as February 2010. Unfortunately, the records there only go back to the 1960s.

 

 

The problem is you're referring to snowfall data at locations that are largely unrepresentative of the region as a whole. The DC/Baltimore metro area isn't confined to the 5 miles on either side of I95.

 

I live maybe 8 miles from DCA, but ended up with 35", while DCA apparently finished with 17". The city of Potomac, MD (a few miles from me) finished with a 37" snow depth, which was measured by a longtime NWS employee.

 

Having lived here for awhile, I have a fairly thorough understanding of our snow climatology. :)

 

Like I say, it's a very level playing field. I don't know of many major airports that aren't in relatively poor locales or measuring snow. You of course realize that DEN is quite unrepresentative of the area most of the time, at least as much so as DCA? In fact, I would wager that the microclimates in the Denver area are even more dramatic overall, with elevation being a prominent factor from the westside of the Denver area to the eastside.

 

There are a ton of snow events where the airports record way less than outlying areas. The Mid Atlantic is not unique in that regard. If we're exclusively looking at the snowiest suburban totals, then the Denver area fairly regularly surpasses 24"+  storm totals. Places like Boulder, Broomfield, Golden, Evergreen, Littleton..... all regularly trump DEN.  And yes, spots have eclipsed 30" and even 40" in numerous events in the past century.

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Like I say, it's a very level playing field. I don't know of many major airports that aren't in relatively poor locales or measuring snow. You of course realize that DEN is quite unrepresentative of the area most of the time, at least as much so as DCA? In fact, I would wager that the microclimates in the Denver area are even more dramatic overall, with elevation being a prominent factor from the westside of the Denver area to the eastside.

I'm fairly certain DCA is the worst, most climatologically unrepresentative airport in the country. It's gotten so awful that the issue is making national news headlines, and the NWS is considering moving the official DC measurement station elsewhere. Almost every NOAA/NESDIS post-storm snowfall map has a little doughnut hole over the airport. They'll often finish with 25-30% of what the surrounding area receives, and the recent blizzard was no exception.

 

Also, remember that for much of its history, Denver's snowfall measurements were taken at a much more favorable location relative to where the measurements are taken now. A lot of those bigger snowfalls were measured at a much more regionally representative location. Hopefully, we'll have that luxury one day.

 

There are a ton of snow events where the airports record way less than outlying areas. The Mid Atlantic is not unique in that regard. If we're exclusively looking at the snowiest suburban totals, then the Denver area fairly regularly surpasses 24"+ storm totals. Places like Boulder, Broomfield, Golden, Evergreen, Littleton..... all regularly trump DEN. And yes, spots have eclipsed 30" and even 40" in numerous events in the past century.

What do you mean by "outlying" areas? I'm only discussing locations within the DC/Baltimore metro area, all of them well below 1000ft, mostly between 300-600ft in elevation. Looking at the numbers on the NCDC/NESIS site, there have been five 30"+ storms in the DC metro area in the 21st century, three of them delivering 40"+ totals. If you count the snowmageddon twins as a single event, then 60-70" fell in that system over three days. I can't find totals in the Denver metro that match these either in terms of raw numbers or frequency of occurrence.

 

If you're referring to "outlying" areas, as in, outside the metro area, the hills and ridges (beyond Parrs Ridge and the Blue Ridge) blow the DC metro area out of the water in terms of snowfall. They average 150-200"+ of snowfall annually, and experience gargantuan blizzards on a much more frequent basis than we do. Systems like the "superstorm" in 1993, for example, dropped close to 70" of snow on the higher ridgetop communities in the Appalachians.

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I'm fairly certain DCA is the worst, most climatologically unrepresentative airport in the country. It's gotten so awful that the issue is making national news headlines, and the NWS is considering moving the official DC measurement station elsewhere. Almost every NOAA/NESDIS post-storm snowfall map has a little doughnut hole over the airport. They'll often finish with 25-30% of what the surrounding area receives, and the recent blizzard was no exception.

 

Also, remember that for much of its history, Denver's snowfall measurements were taken at a much more favorable location relative to where the measurements are taken now. A lot of those bigger snowfalls were measured at a much more regionally representative location. Hopefully, we'll have that luxury one day.

 

 

What do you mean by "outlying" areas? I'm only discussing locations within the DC/Baltimore metro area, all of them well below 1000ft, mostly between 300-600ft in elevation. Looking at the numbers on the NCDC/NESDIS site, there have been five 30"+ storms in the DC metro area in the 21st century, three of them delivering 40"+ totals. If you count the snowmageddon twins as a single event, then 60-70" fell in that system over three days. I can't find totals in the Denver metro that match these either in terms of raw numbers or frequency of occurrence.

 

If you're referring to "outlying" areas, as in, outside the metro area, the hills and ridges (beyond Parrs Ridge and the Blue Ridge) blow the DC metro area out of the water in terms of snowfall. They average 150-200"+ of snowfall annually, and experience gargantuan blizzards on a much more frequent basis than we do. Systems like the "superstorm" in 1993, for example, dropped close to 70" of snow on the higher ridgetop communities in the Appalachians.

 

DCA is a lame spot but it's pretty representative of downtown Washington D.C. actually, being that it's right across the river from the heart of the city. And BWI is a very suburban major airport and lacks much of an UHI (as does IAD), with the Inner Harbor being just as bad if not worse for snowfall. In fact, Baltimore WSO City's historic average (through 1950) was less than what BWI gets (since 1950).

 

Stapleton was better for snowfall but it still isn't a regional sweet spot in most events. That site probably gets a few inches more per year than the current airport site does.

 

Outlying areas means outside of the urban core, meaning rural or suburban places that aren't that close to the metropolitan centers. Leesburg, VA, Gaithersburg, MD, Evergreen, CO, Boulder, CO.... places like that which are well outside of what people conventionally think of as D.C. or Denver.  DC and Baltimore did not see 30"+ snowstorm totals in five storms this century, in fact neither city has ever officially recorded such large totals from a single storm. Individual storms like February 2003, December 2009, and February 2010 generally dropped 15-25" in the Mid Atlantic. The Denver metro saw comparable events in December 2006, October 2009, and February 2012.  Generally 15-25". The January 2016 blizzard in the Mid Atlantic was very comparable to the March 2003 blizzard in CO. The sweet spots had 35"+ in both of those storms.   

 

It's been a historic stretch for Mid Atlantic snowstorms since 2003, but even with that it's only really about comparable at best to Colorado, and the 20th century climo really clearly favors Denver. 

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DCA is a lame spot but it's pretty representative of downtown Washington D.C. actually, being that it's right across the river from the heart of the city. And BWI is a very suburban major airport and lacks much of an UHI (as does IAD), with the Inner Harbor being just as bad if not worse for snowfall. In fact, Baltimore WSO City's historic average (through 1950) was less than what BWI gets (since 1950).

With all due respect, this isn't accurate. At least half of DC sits above/west of the Fall Line, and even downtown DC outperforms DCA on a regular basis. In fact, DCA underperforms relative to locations right on the Chesapeake Bay, like Annapolis and Chesapeake Beach. So, no, DCA is completely unrepresentative of even downtown DC (let alone the majority of the DC metro), which is why the NWS is considering the relocation of the official measurements.

 

As for BWI, again, it's location east/below the Fall Line puts it at odds with at least half of the DC/Baltimore metro area. It's actually a terrible location for snow, all else considered, relative to locations west/above the Fall Line.

 

Outlying areas means outside of the urban core, meaning rural or suburban places that aren't that close to the metropolitan centers. Leesburg, VA, Gaithersburg, MD, Evergreen, CO, Boulder, CO.... places like that which are well outside of what people conventionally think of as D.C. or Denver.

Actually, Gaithersburg is only 10 miles from I-95, is well within the aforementioned "urban core", and is part of the DC Subway System. Actually, Leesburg and Gaithersburg are both part of the DC Subway System, though you could argue that Leesburg is a more distant suburban location. However, cities like Germantown, Gaithersburg, and Clarksburg certainly are part of the immediate metro area, and are actually very representative of the region as a whole in terms of snowfall.

 

DC and Baltimore did not see 30"+ snowstorm totals in five storms this century, in fact neither city has ever officially recorded such large totals from a single storm.

Again, this is false. Not only did IAD record 33" in the 2010 blizzard, but the recent blizzard dropped 37" in Potomac, MD (measured by the NWS) and widespread 30-35" in the Rockville/Bethesda corridor, including locations inside the DC beltway. The snowmageddons both delivered 30"+ totals to locations well within the DC/Baltimore metro, as did the Presidents' Day blizzard of 2003. This is plain reality, dude.

 

Individual storms like February 2003, December 2009, and February 2010 generally dropped 15-25" in the Mid Atlantic.

Even IAD recorded 33" in the 2010 storm, and BWI (east/below the fall line) recorded 26", and 29", respectively, in the 2010/2016 blizzards. Most locations above/west of the Fall Line recorded between 30-40" in the recent blizzard, and between 25-35" in the first 2010 blizzard (50-70" in both twins combined). These numbers are on the NESIS site, if you're interested in looking a bit more thoroughly.

 

It's been a historic stretch for Mid Atlantic snowstorms since 2003, but even with that it's only really about comparable at best to Colorado, and the 20th century climo really clearly favors Denver.

If it helps you sleep better at night, then keep believing this. I'll stick to the actual numbers. :)

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Winter storm watch for a pretty good chunk of my area, but SLC itself is not included. I think in the city we will see a couple of inches of snow, but areas to the north and west will do much better. As I said the other day, at least a few valley locations in Utah will see upwards of 10+", I just think that will not occur around many people as it will be well to the west. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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With all due respect, this isn't accurate. At least half of DC sits above/west of the Fall Line, and even downtown DC outperforms DCA on a regular basis. In fact, DCA underperforms relative to locations right on the Chesapeake Bay, like Annapolis and Chesapeake Beach. So, no, DCA is completely unrepresentative of even downtown DC (let alone the majority of the DC metro), which is why the NWS is considering the relocation of the official measurements.

 

 

The National Arboretum site in D.C. averages 15-16" just like DCA does. Most of the city is low lying and swampy i.e. not great for snow. It is what it is. What happens at DCA represents what happens in those lower lying areas, not what's going on in a suburb 15 miles away. D.C. is just like almost every big city in that regard. The same is true of Baltimore, the downtown core averages roughly the same or even slightly less than the airport. 

 

Actually, Gaithersburg is only 10 miles from I-95, is well within the aforementioned "urban core", and is part of the DC Subway System. Actually, Leesburg and Gaithersburg are both part of the DC Subway System, though you could argue that Leesburg is a more distant suburban location. However, cities like Germantown, Gaithersburg, and Clarksburg certainly are part of the immediate metro area, and are actually very representative of the region as a whole in terms of snowfall.

 

 

It seems like you're being willfully obtuse here. I'm not sure what is difficult to understand about terms like "outlying" and clearly you just described a bunch of places that are in fact just that. Not in the urban core and thus not relevant to a discussion about big cities. 

 

 

Again, this is false. Not only did IAD record 33" in the 2010 blizzard, but the recent blizzard dropped 37" in Potomac, MD (measured by the NWS) and widespread 30-35" in the Rockville/Bethesda corridor, including locations inside the DC beltway. The snowmageddons both delivered 30"+ totals to locations well within the DC/Baltimore metro, as did the Presidents' Day blizzard of 2003. This is plain reality, dude.

 

 

Here is the plain reality of a side by side comparison

 

http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_storm-pr

 

http://www.weather.gov/bou/snowstat

 

You'll see that no official station around the D.C. or Baltimore area reached 30" storm totals in five different events. In fact, IAD only hit 30"+ in the 2010 event and just missed the mark this past January. DC has never done it in a single storm and neither has Baltimore. Baltimore has seen a comparable number of 20"+ events to Denver with nine apiece, while D.C. doesn't really even belong in the discussion with only three such events.

 

IAD is ~25 miles outside of Washington D.C. and not really representative of the city at all. That's the equivalent of using Boulder as the official measuring station for Denver (~25 mile difference), and guess what, Boulder has had a number of bigger snowstorms than IAD.  Here's Boulder's official climo page if you're interested in perusing some of their data.

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?co0848

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The National Arboretum site in D.C. averages 15-16" just like DCA does. Most of the city is low lying and swampy i.e. not great for snow. It is what it is. What happens at DCA represents what happens in those lower lying areas, not what's going on in a suburb 15 miles away. D.C. is just like almost every big city in that regard. The same is true of Baltimore, the downtown core averages roughly the same or even slightly less than the airport.

 

 

The National Arboretum site is also east/below the Fall Line, and even so, that site as well as the WH & National Zoo all observed between 21" and 25" during the recent blizzard. Westmere/SWW in upper NW DC, by comparison, recorded 28", Chevy Chase hit 30", and Potomac (7 miles from DC) observed 37".

 

Unless you're confining the DC metro to within DC proper itself, your statement doesn't hold much water.

 

It seems like you're being willfully obtuse here. I'm not sure what is difficult to understand about terms like "outlying" and clearly you just described a bunch of places that are in fact just that. Not in the urban core and thus not relevant to a discussion about big cities.

Haha, what? The DC metro area includes includes DC proper, Bethesda, Silver Spring, McLean, Rockville, Gaithersburg Germantown, Reston, and Fairfax. These are not outlying suburbs, they're fully incorporated parts of the sprawling metroplex.

 

These imaginary lines you're drawing make no sense whatsoever.

 

Here is the plain reality of a side by side comparison

 

http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_storm-pr

 

http://www.weather.gov/bou/snowstat

 

You'll see that no official station around the D.C. or Baltimore area reached 30" storm totals in five different events. In fact, IAD only hit 30"+ in the 2010 event and just missed the mark this past January. DC has never done it in a single storm and neither has Baltimore. Baltimore has seen a comparable number of 20"+ events to Denver with nine apiece, while D.C. doesn't really even belong in the discussion with only three such events.

 

IAD is ~25 miles outside of Washington D.C. and not really representative of the city at all. That's the equivalent of using Boulder as the official measuring station for Denver (~25 mile difference), and guess what, Boulder has had a number of bigger snowstorms than IAD. Here's oulder's official climo page if you're interested

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?co0848

If you want to be willingly deceitful and use the airport data to broadbrush the region, then go ahead. The IAD location also has a very short period of record (only goes back to the 1960s) and is rainshadowed by the Blue Ridge and recieves a lot less snowfall than locations 5-10 miles NE, and despite that has already surpassed 30".

 

If you look at the full aggregation of official reports outside the semiautomatic observation sites, you'll see many totals in the 30-40" range.

 

http://flxweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/blizzard-2016-amounts.png

 

http://flxweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2016blizzard.png

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Here's a full aggregation of "official" station measurements after the blizzard, compiled by LWX and a few other WFOs. North Potomac, MD, and Gaithersburg, MD (easily within DC metro area, around 300ft in elevation, ~10 from miles of DC proper) observed 38.5", and 35", respectively.

 

In fact, Potomac, MD is only 3 miles from my location, and I observed 35" here, so the data holds up.

 

image.png

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Here's another good visual depiction of the recent blizzard, compiled by NOAA/NESIS. As you can see, between 30-40" fell in location well inside the DC/Baltimore metro area. The resolution is a bit too low to account for microclimate effects (including the DCA effect and the higher totals over the NW Beltway) but gives the general picture.

 

I'll try and dig up the data from 2010, 2003, and 1996 as well.

 

image.png

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That's the same problem we have, unfortunately.

 

Obviously DCA speaks for itself, but BWI also sits east of the Fall Line, while IAD sits in a bowl and is rainshadowed to the west and south.

 

It's a little different, though. The Denver airport is way further away from the actual city of Denver than DCA is from DC proper.

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It's a little different, though. The Denver airport is way further away from the actual city of Denver than DCA is from DC proper.

That's a good point. Having said that, DC itself is tiny, and the vast majority of the population around here lives outside DC, in the corridor including Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Reston, McLean, Germantown, and Ashburn/Leesburg. So, DCA really doesn't reflect what the majority of the population here experiences, in terms of climate.

 

I've watched DCA flounder in the snowfall department for years, and even I was left mouth-agape at their 17" snowfall total during the recent blizzard. I was struggling to find anything below 32" in my backyard, and many areas swallowed my yardstick completely.

 

Really, DCA is just a terrible location for snowfall.

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Unless you're confining the DC metro to within DC proper itself, your statement doesn't hold much water.

 

 

 

 

Hmm, maybe you're starting to get it. I am discussing the cities themselves since that it where the long term official records are kept. It's pretty simple. And I'm not looking at one storm but looking at aggregates. Averages. Trends over time. The trend is pretty clear that the Denver area compares quite favorably to your area for significant snowstorms and in fact beats it for extremes.

 

Suburbs are by definition outlying areas. I.E. not within the urban core itself. Coors Field is not outlying. Evergreen is. The Smithsonian is not outlying, McLean is. For the purposes of this discussion, nobody cares what happens in McLean or Evergreen.

 

If you want to be willingly deceitful and use the airport data to broadbrush the region, then go ahead. The IAD location also has a very short period of record (only goes back to the 1960s) and is rainshadowed by the Blue Ridge and recieves a lot less snowfall than locations 5-10 miles NE, and despite that has already surpassed 30".

 

If you look at the full aggregation of official reports outside the semiautomatic observation sites, you'll see many totals in the 30-40" range.

 

 

LOL, I don't see it as deceitful to look at actual measuring stations. Quite the opposite, it's the only way to objectively quantify a comparison between two cities. Otherwise we're going to go endlessly in circles with this.

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That's a good point. Having said that, DC itself is tiny, and the vast majority of the population around here lives outside DC, in the corridor including Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Reston, McLean, Germantown, and Ashburn/Leesburg. So, DCA really doesn't reflect what the majority of the population here experiences, in terms of climate.

 

I've watched DCA flounder in the snowfall department for years, and even I was left mouth-agape at their 17" snowfall total during the recent blizzard. I was struggling to find anything below 32" in my backyard, and many areas swallowed my yardstick completely.

 

Really, DCA is just a terrible location for snowfall.

 

Fair enough.

 

But just keep in mind when you're evaluating 20"+ storms in Denver metro, we see a lot more than what the airport stats show. 

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Here are the snowfall reports for snowmageddon, back in 2010. Again, a slew of 30"+ reports into the DC/Baltimore metro area. The deformation band jackpotted Baltimore in that one.

 

image.jpeg

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Fair enough.

 

But just keep in mind when you're evaluating 20"+ storms in Denver metro, we see a lot more than what the airport stats show.

 

Oh, definitely. There's absolutely no way that isolated, poorly located airport measurements will sufficiently capture the complex, micro-climactic variations in the snowfall of any given region, let alone two regions with complicated topography and anthropogenic complications.

 

Unfortunately, a few people seem to believe otherwise. :)

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Oh, definitely. There's absolutely no way that isolated, poorly located airport measurements will sufficiently capture the complex, micro-climactic variations in the snowfall of any given region, let alone two regions with complicated topography and anthropogenic complications.

 

Unfortunately, a few people seem to believe otherwise. :)

 

Yeah, but your original comments seemed to under-estimate the number of really big snowstorms here. I can only assume you were going mainly off the airport data.

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Yeah, but your original comments seemed to under-estimate the number of really big snowstorms here. I can only assume you were going mainly off the airport data.

 

His original comment stated that 20"+ storms are relatively rare around Denver when compared to his area. Quite simply, all objective data that I have seen shows that to not be the case. 

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Hmm, maybe you're starting to get it. I am discussing the cities themselves since that it where the long term official records are kept. It's pretty simple. And I'm not looking at one storm but looking at aggregates. Averages. Trends over time. The trend is pretty clear that the Denver area compares quite favorably to your area for significant snowstorms and in fact beats it for extremes.

Well, I don't live in Washington DC, and neither does the vast majority of the population around here. That said, I do live in the Washington DC metro area, and the data clearly confirms the fact that, over the last 20 years, there have been at least 4 blizzards that dropped 30"+ within the metro area. Not talking about obscure suburbs here, I'm talking within the metroplex. These include 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2016. There were also 5 additional blizzards that dropped 20"+ inside the metro area in 2000, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2014.

 

Again, if you want to assume that the aforementioned airports are regionally representative, that's your choice, but it's not true.

 

Suburbs are by definition outlying areas. I.E. not within the urban core itself. Coors Field is not outlying. Evergreen is. The Smithsonian is not outlying, McLean is. For the purposes of this discussion, nobody cares what happens in McLean or Evergreen.

You've made it abundantly clear that you don't understand this region. The vast majority of the population here lives outside DC, in the cities/subsectors with direct metro access to DC. These areas are generally 5-15 miles from DC, and include McLean, Reston, Bethesda, Silver Spring, Rockville, Gaithersburg, and Germantown.

 

These imaginary lines you're drawing make no sense. You'd be laughed out of the room if you tried telling this to anyone here.

 

LOL, I don't see it as deceitful to look at actual measuring stations. Quite the opposite, it's the only way to objectively quantify a comparison between two cities. Otherwise we're going to go endlessly in circles with this.

It's deceitful to use three poorly sited measurement stations to objectively gauge a region's snowfall climatology, in the face of hundreds of additional measurements, yes. I'm not sure why you can't grasp this.

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Yeah, but your original comments seemed to under-estimate the number of really big snowstorms here. I can only assume you were going mainly off the airport data.

I was referring to the fact that you hadn't observed a snowfall over 30" since you moved there in 2006, and only two storms dropping 24"+.

 

I looked some aggregated snowfall reports on the CPC/NCDC site and found some higher totals in Boulder, though the differential didn't appear to be gargantuan. I didn't look closely, though, and I'm not familiar with snowfall climatology out there.

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His original comment stated that 20"+ storms are relatively rare around Denver when compared to his area. Quite simply, all objective data that I have seen shows that to not be the case.

 

I should have typed 30"+, and no, all objective data validates my assertions, at least over the last 20 years.

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I was referring to the fact you'd haven't observed a snowfall over 30" since you moved there in 2006, and only two storms dropping 24"+.

 

I looked some aggregated snowfall reports on the CPC/NCDC site and found some higher totals in Boulder, though the differential didn't appear to be gargantuan. I didn't look closely, though.

 

I think you are putting too much stock in the past 20 years. As I've said, that's been a historic period for your area for huge storms. But it doesn't reflect the historical norm.

 

In the past 20 years, here are the storms that have dropped 20"+ for parts of Denver metro. 9 different storms, about the same as the DC area has seen.

 

October 1997 (up to 33" reports)

March 1998 

April 1999

March 2003 (several reports over 40")

Dec 2006 (up to 32" reports)

April 2009

Oct 2009

Feb 2012

March 2016

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I think you are putting too much stock in the past 20 years. As I've said, that's been a historic period for your area for huge storms. But it doesn't reflect the historical norm.

 

In the past 20 years, here are the storms that have dropped 20"+ for parts of Denver metro. 9 different storms, about the same as the DC area has seen.

 

October 1997 (up to 33" reports)

March 1998

April 1999

March 2003 (several reports over 40")

Dec 2006 (up to 32" reports)

April 2009

Oct 2009

Feb 2012

March 2016

That's more comparable overall than I originally thought, though still less impressive in regards to 30-40"+ snowfalls. As for the timeframe, observations over the last 20 years are more widespread and also are more efficiently integrated/quality controlled, so that's the period I focus on the most.

 

Having taken that into account, I'm not sure the last 20 years are as anomalous as many make them out to be. We had some enormous snowfalls back in the 1700s/1800s that would blow away anything we've observed in the modern era, and a number of borderline blizzards that clobbered areas west of the Fall Line but spared eastern locations beforehand.

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Well, I don't live in Washington DC, and neither does the vast majority of the population around here. That said, I do live in the Washington DC metro area, and the data clearly confirms the fact that, over the last 20 years, there have been at least 4 blizzards that dropped 30"+ within the metro area. Not talking about obscure suburbs here, I'm talking within the metroplex. These include 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2016. There were also 5 additional blizzards that dropped 20"+ inside the metro area in 2000, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2014.

 

Again, if you want to assume that the aforementioned airports are regionally representative, that's your choice, but it's not true.

 

 

Cool, that sounds like every other big metropolitan area. The majority of people in Colorado don't actually live in Denver or at Denver International Airport either. 

 

No one thinks that an airport represents an entire region, that's obviously a pretty glaring logical fallacy. Airports are an objective, level barometer for comparing snow statistics at two cities. Baltimore's airport sucks at recording snow, Denver's airport sucks at recording snow, Portland's airport sucks at recording snow, Tallahassee's airport sucks at recording snow. Life's a b*tch and then you die. If you want to use other objective, official stations to showcase numeric trends, then you are more than welcome to present your case. But for the constraints of this discussion, I am utilizing the obvious stations at hand (DEN, DIA, BWI, IAD, DCA).

 

You've made it abundantly clear that you don't understand this region. The vast majority of the population here lives outside DC, in the cities/subsectors with direct metro access to DC. These areas are generally 5-15 miles from DC, and include McLean, Reston, Bethesda, Silver Spring, Rockville, Gaithersburg, and Germantown.

 

These imaginary lines you're drawing make no sense. You'd be laughed out of the room if you tried telling this to anyone here.

 

 

It's deceitful to use three poorly sited measurement stations to objectively gauge a region's snowfall climatology, in the face of hundreds of additional measurements, yes. I'm not sure why you can't grasp this.

 

 

Indeed, the complexity of city boundaries back there is straight up galling. Probably only MIT janitors can can actually understand that Tysons Corner isn't Washington D.C and Chevy Chase isn't Baltimore. 

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