Mountain West Discussion

[Black Hole]

This is the topic for general discussion in the mountain west region. Feel free to comment as you please, or to start a special topic for individual storms.

[westiztehbest]

Was mild and breezy today.  Felt nice out taking a walk this evening.  

[Black Hole]

Same here, lots of my snow has been melting. May loose all of it within a week or so if it keeps up.

[PRISM]

I work for NRCS (Natural Resources Conservation Service), National Water & Climate Center where I issue the following reports on Drought and Snowpack (Water Supply):

 

The Monthly Western Snowpack and Water Supply Forecast Report has also been posted to the NWCC homepage in MS Word and Adobe Acrobat formats at the following address: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnowsummary.pl.

 

The Weekly CONUS Snowpack and Drought Update Report has been posted to the NWCC homepage as an Adobe Acrobat file at the following address: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/water/drought/wdr.pl. Archived copies can also be acquired there.

 

Feel free to subscribe to these:

 

https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDANRCS/subscriber/new?topic_id=USDANRCS_78

[Black Hole]

Thanks for the update, certainly in need of more water. A balmy 46F here this afternoon, down to 29F right now.

[Coco-nut]

Disgustingly dry here in northern Arizona. No snow or rain since the week before Christmas.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Disgustingly dry here in northern Arizona. No snow or rain since the week before Christmas.

 

It has been just like that here in Socal as well, no rain since Dec. 19, and that was a puny "storm" for my area. It seems that it has been as dry as Death Valley lately across the entire state of CA. The desert southwest overall has been quite dry lately as well.

[lightning 2.0]

Looks rather mild for the Denver game this week

[Black Hole]

Mostly sunny with a high 0f 45 here today. Probably no less than 10 more days of this but I am thinking towards Feb things may change.

[westiztehbest]

Dense fog all day today.  Didn't crack 30 F.  It's been a week since high temperatures have been around normal.

[Black Hole]

Another sunny and hazy day. No change in the next 5 days at least.

[Coco-nut]

There was a big bottleneck of years with a 28 day winter dry spell here in Flagstaff, we have now reached that and are in fifth place over all with the longest winter dry spell. By Tuesday night we will be in 3rd place with the longest one in over 40 years. With no precipitation predicted for the coming week it is quite possible for us to roll into next week and hit the 2nd place one at 37 days or even the longest at 39 days.

 

I was much happier last summer when we hit the record for wettest July monsoon.

[Dan the Weatherman]

There was a big bottleneck of years with a 28 day winter dry spell here in Flagstaff, we have now reached that and are in fifth place over all with the longest winter dry spell. By Tuesday night we will be in 3rd place with the longest one in over 40 years. With no precipitation predicted for the coming week it is quite possible for us to roll into next week and hit the 2nd place one at 37 days or even the longest at 39 days.

 

I was much happier last summer when we hit the record for wettest July monsoon.

 

If this pattern continues for much longer, a much larger portion of the country is going to be in drought conditions and I don't just mean the west coast states.

[Black Hole]

More of the same here, but a chance of a sprinkle now for Friday. Sad that I can find that exciting at this point lol

[westiztehbest]

February is looking look it could turn more active per the Euro weeklies/CFS.  

 

The weather in Spokane has consisted of low clouds during the day and freezing fog at night.  Temperatures have gotten close to 32 F and thats about it.  The trees are frosty.

 

 

Went snowshoeing up in the North Idaho mountains a couple days ago and it was sunny above 4K feet.  Was nice to see some blue sky finally.

 

[Black Hole]

Nice pictures. The visibility is down to about 3 miles or so now during the day from pollution alone. There is no fog. Gross.

[Black Hole]

There is a lot of nice hoar frost on the crusty old snow that is still around here. I've never seen it before but it's quite impressive.

[Black Hole]

Nice to see a pattern change is finally in the works. Some decent rains may be possible this week.

[westiztehbest]

Nice to see a pattern change is finally in the works. Some decent rains may be possible this week.

 

Some snow as well!

 

SLC:

 

OTX:

 

It will be interesting to see how these verify.

[Black Hole]

Nice maps! Yeah it sort of looks like some pretty good CAA ahead of the storm should start us as snow. Probably not a lot of it, but some. I think it switches to rain and then back to snow as the front pushes through. As of now on Thursday night the heavier snow is shown to the south but more often than not it trends north. How do you think you will do with this?

[Black Hole]

Oh, and did you say somewhere you have a degree? If so we should get you a met tag.

[snow_wizard]

Has Flatiron joined this forum?

[westiztehbest]

Oh, and did you say somewhere you have a degree? If so we should get you a met tag.

I'm thinking 2 inches seems reasonable.  If the temperatures stay at 30 F or less...then 3 inches is a possibility with Wednesday's system.  3" is about the average snowfall for a storm here generally.  If the temperatures in the teens or twenties, that's where the 4-8" storms usually occur.  I went to the U of Utah.  Was a met in Sandy for a year.  Have thought about getting back into it...but not sure if I'd want to take a pay cut at this point from where I'm at now.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Has Flatiron joined this forum?

 

I have been wondering the same thing.

[Black Hole]

Very wet day tomorrow, or at least in the evening. Probably 1/2" of water. Some snow on Thursday as well.

[snow_wizard]

I have been wondering the same thing.

 

Apparently nobody is talking.

[westiztehbest]

Looks like there could be more than 2" tomorrow.  Happy to see something interesting after a dry period.  Will be interesting to see how the 00z models look in regards to temps late this weekend/early next week. The 18z didn't look too shabby.

 

 

[Black Hole]

Still timing differences for the frontal passage, but 1-3" of snow will probably fall behind it overnight tomorrow night or Thursday.

[westiztehbest]

Ended up getting 3.5-4".  The HRRR model at midnight lastnight did pretty well with the snow totals.  Getting -SN again.  May pick up another inch tonight.

[Black Hole]

Wild cold front passage here. Gust to 46mph at the airport and 61mph at the university. Was 46 an hour ago, now 33 and heavy snow and sticking.

[Black Hole]

1.6" on the ground so far and coming down pretty heavy still.

[westiztehbest]

Wild cold front passage here. Gust to 46mph at the airport and 61mph at the university. Was 46 an hour ago, now 33 and heavy snow and sticking.

 

Nice!  I remember some of the dramatic squall lines that would come raging in from the NW...pretty epic sight.

[Black Hole]

Eyeballing it from inside, but 2-2.5" now. Yep, gotta love the cold fronts here, that's for sure.

[Black Hole]

Chris, although not quite as bad as the mountains in Oregon and California we are definitely way below normal. There were bare patches on the south side of the mountains up to about 8-9k feet before yesterday. Probably running 20-40% of normal before the storm.

[westiztehbest]

Chris, although not quite as bad as the mountains in Oregon and California we are definitely way below normal. There were bare patches on the south side of the mountains up to about 8-9k feet before yesterday. Probably running 20-40% of normal before the storm.

 

Hopefully the next few weeks can make up some ground there.

 

Been getting intermittent light snow most of the day today.  The winds have gotten breezy out of the NE (outflow from the Purcell Trench).  The modified Arctic front passed this afternoon.  Dewpoints are dropping.  

 

If it clears out the next few nights it's going to get cold.  There's 4-4.5" on the ground now.

 

 

Phew next week looks to get chilly.  The 12z ECMWF showed -17F next Wednesday/Thursday for a minimum temp.  Brr!

[westiztehbest]

Got down to 5 F here this morning.  A little bit of clearing goes a long way.

[Black Hole]

Wow, you have done really well the last few days! We ended up with about 2.5" or so from the front that has melted down to 1" now. Some light snow falling this morning too.

 

Extended is looking interesting with a surprising amount of ensemble agreement. We will both be quite cold but up in your area I think you will see much colder temperatures. That said Tuesday looks like a couple inches and next weekend could be significant.

 

Which storms do you have your eye on for biggest potential? Do you think the block will break down as shown?

 

 

Sidenote -- I normally use IE but for some reason I can't use quote on it so that is why I usually don't quote people...I have to switch browsers to do it haha

[westiztehbest]

I'm thinking later today there may be some light snow here.  Not sure if there will be much in the way of accumulation.  Midweek looks cold.  I'm thinking for Wed-Sat lows are going to be around -10F and highs around 15.  Suppose we'll see.  Things could go lower with min temps.  I'm unsure about next weekend and snow potential at this point.  Will have to re-evaluate midweek to see if moderate/significant overrunning will occur or if light snow chances are more likely.

[Black Hole]

Wow that's cold! Won't be looking at anything like that here. My guess is that because of deep snow cover and very cold temps aloft we could go as low as -5F if things clear out perfectly.

[westiztehbest]

Ah the drive home from watching the Super Bowl there's light and fluffy snow falling @ 24 F.  Ah what a day.