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Lots of ECMWF ensemble members are showing some pretty significant early season snow chances for Bozeman over the next 10 days. Looks like our first chance of accumulating snow begins Friday morning continuing through Saturday morning. The ECWMF has been a lot more robust with the depth of the cold and the precipitation amounts while it looks like the GFS has been showing less but seems to be slowly catching up.

 

It's been a little since Bozeman has seen snow in September. Last occurrence was Sept 30th of 2009 when 5.5" fell. September record is 7.0" of snowfall in 1985.

 

Plenty of impressive EPS members showing snowfall even at the airport which is nearly 1,000' lower in elevation than me.

 

 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Lots of ECMWF ensemble members are showing some pretty significant early season snow chances for Bozeman over the next 10 days. Looks like our first chance of accumulating snow begins Friday morning continuing through Saturday morning. The ECWMF has been a lot more robust with the depth of the cold and the precipitation amounts while it looks like the GFS has been showing less but seems to be slowly catching up.

 

It's been a little since Bozeman has seen snow in September. Last occurrence was Sept 30th of 2009 when 5.5" fell. September record is 7.0" of snowfall in 1985.

 

Plenty of impressive EPS members showing snowfall even at the airport which is nearly 1,000' lower in elevation than me.

 

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2017-09-11 at 9.36.13 AM.png

In the future, you can't post these because it is against ECMWF's and weatherbells terms of service and we could be liable for it. So, I will give you a chance to delete it but otherwise I will take your post down later. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Definitely a big change coming here in SLC with the cold front. Should finally get some decent rains Thursday-Friday with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s instead of the 90s/60s we have been seeing. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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In the future, you can't post these because it is against ECMWF's and weatherbells terms of service and we could be liable for it. So, I will give you a chance to delete it but otherwise I will take your post down later.

 

Is this a new policy?? Others, including regular posters, have been posting weatherbell graphics all year so I was never aware of such policy. I've taken it down but it does make me wonder why this particular graphic caught your attention.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Is this a new policy?? Others, including regular posters, have been posting weatherbell graphics all year so I was never aware of such policy. I've taken it down but it does make me wonder why this particular graphic caught your attention.

If others post it in the PNW thread for instance I don't see it since I rarely read that anymore. I just know we can get in trouble if we are privy to it and do nothing. If it is happening in other threads and you see it, just let me know and I will deal with it. Thanks!

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Great Kayla just lost us our Euro maps for the winter...

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Great Kayla just lost us our Euro maps for the winter...

 

Ha, well, you don't have to go far to see them...  :lol:

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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This upcoming trough just keeps looking more and more impressive for mid September in the Northern Rockies. 700mb temps look to drop to -7C now which means it's looking a lot more promising to see some decent snowfall here Friday night into Saturday.

 

In fact the Canadian paints 4-6" over downtown Bozeman and 6-10" over my roof. Euro and GFS show just a trace-1" for town and 1-3" at my house. If we can get that -7C 700mb temp to verify then I think we could see some decent accumulations even down to the valley floor (~4,800').

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Pattern change can be well felt this morning with temps in the upper 40's and a stiff north breeze. Received 0.16" yesterday afternoon which is just a drop in the bucket with what's coming up over the next couple of days. Still looking at widespread 1-2" of precip through Saturday.

 

Snow is now looking likely down to the valley floor beginning Friday night into Saturday. Looks like downtown Bozeman should pick up 1-2" of snowfall where I should see about 3-6" on my roof. Quite the early season snowfall! I'm going to have to look back to see when the last time Bozeman saw this early of a significant snowfall.

 

The amazing thing is that the 00z ECMWF shows yet another low elevation snow event later next week! September to remember!?!

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Pattern change can be well felt this morning with temps in the upper 40's and a stiff north breeze. Received 0.16" yesterday afternoon which is just a drop in the bucket with what's coming up over the next couple of days. Still looking at widespread 1-2" of precip through Saturday.

 

Snow is now looking likely down to the valley floor beginning Friday night into Saturday. Looks like downtown Bozeman should pick up 1-2" of snowfall where I should see about 3-6" on my roof. Quite the early season snowfall! I'm going to have to look back to see when the last time Bozeman saw this early of a significant snowfall.

 

The amazing thing is that the 00z ECMWF shows yet another low elevation snow event later next week! September to remember!?!

 

If Bozeman gets more than 1", looks like it will be the first time this early since 1988. If they get more than 2", you'd have to go all the way back to 1910. If they top 3", it would be heaviest snowfall on record before 9/19.

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So looking back at Bozeman for largest early season snowfall. 1910 holds the top step when 3.0" fell on August 24th. Second earliest significant snowfall is September 7th of 1941 when 2.0" fell. September 16th record daily snowfall is 1.5"

 

So, if latest model guidance holds true, Bozeman may see the 3rd earliest 2"+ snowfall and possibly a new daily record.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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If Bozeman gets more than 1", looks like it will be the first time this early since 1988. If they get more than 2", you'd have to go all the way back to 1910. If they top 3", it would be heaviest snowfall on record before 9/19.

 

Thanks for this! This is looking more and more like a very impressive early season event.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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ECMWF ensemble mean has about 1" of precipitation overnight. I think that is going to depend on where convection occurs but everybody around here should get something. Pretty chilly airmass too, but the one coming the middle of next week looks even colder as Front Ranger pointed out. 

A few of the coldest ensemble members have snow in the hills around my area with that storm, even though I think that is unlikely it should be quite chilly with another decent soaking. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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This upcoming trough just keeps looking more and more impressive for mid September in the Northern Rockies. 700mb temps look to drop to -7C now which means it's looking a lot more promising to see some decent snowfall here Friday night into Saturday.

 

In fact the Canadian paints 4-6" over downtown Bozeman and 6-10" over my roof. Euro and GFS show just a trace-1" for town and 1-3" at my house. If we can get that -7C 700mb temp to verify then I think we could see some decent accumulations even down to the valley floor (~4,800').

In SLC the "magic number" for 700 mb temps changes a bit seasonally. -7C is usually good enough for snow in winter but not this time of year. That is true because lapse rates tend to be a bit steeper in fall and spring. On the flip side this tends to make systems more convectively active. 

 

Anyway I guess my point is that its probably similar for you in that regard (our elevations are similar, but the valley floor is 4200 ft here). -7C is probably less effective than in winter, but with heavy precip you could end up getting snow anyway, and that looks to happen at this point. 

 

What is your elevation at your place?

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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For some perspective on September snow around here, it is rare, but happens. The last time it snowed in September was 2007, I believe the 29th. Just a trace at the airport, but there was an inch or two on the hills around town. Earliest on record was 1965 with 2.2" on the 17th, or for a trace it was just a day earlier in 1945. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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In SLC the "magic number" for 700 mb temps changes a bit seasonally. -7C is usually good enough for snow in winter but not this time of year. That is true because lapse rates tend to be a bit steeper in fall and spring. On the flip side this tends to make systems more convectively active. 

 

Anyway I guess my point is that its probably similar for you in that regard (our elevations are similar, but the valley floor is 4200 ft here). -7C is probably less effective than in winter, but with heavy precip you could end up getting snow anyway, and that looks to happen at this point. 

 

What is your elevation at your place?

 

Yeah great points. It's going to be close for the valley here but the nighttime timing looks good and should be enough with -7C 700mb temps and moderate to heavy precip rates.

 

My elevation south of downtown Bozeman is 5,350' so -6C @700mb is usually enough for me here, especially overnight. I would expect that I should see the changeover tomorrow afternoon sometime.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Yeah great points. It's going to be close for the valley here but the nighttime timing looks good and should be enough with -7C 700mb temps and moderate to heavy precip rates.

 

My elevation south of downtown Bozeman is 5,350' so -6C @700mb is usually enough for me here, especially overnight. I would expect that I should see the changeover tomorrow afternoon sometime.

 

Considering your high elevation, what are the prospect for some measurable snow w/ this setup? Is this considered early for snowfall?

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Fascinating given that that airmass was also effectively what put out the largest wildfire recorded in U.S. history.

 

Indeed. Then again, the fire really blew up because of the strong west winds ahead of the trough. Fascinating sequence regardless. That airmass dropped readings down to 23 in Nebraska...in August. 

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Indeed. Then again, the fire really blew up because of the strong west winds ahead of the trough. Fascinating sequence regardless. That airmass dropped readings down to 23 in Nebraska...in August. 

 

Yeah it seemed to be sparked by the anomalous wind factor more than anything else. I'm sure some of the MT river valleys had ashfall from the fire which was replaced by snowfall within a day or two. 

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Yeah it seemed to be sparked by the anomalous wind factor more than anything else. I'm sure some of the MT river valleys had ashfall from the fire which was replaced by snowfall within a day or two. 

 

I can't imagine the relief felt in some of those towns. That's the kind of stuff that turned people religious back in the old days. 

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Wow maybe Bozeman will see snow. Missoula NWS is really bullish on the snow levels forecasts 4k' for some favored valleys. Rogers pass was getting snow all this afternoon.

 

Not sure what the Great Falls NWS is smoking honestly... They are forecasting a low of 43F in Bozeman tonight and it's currently 41.8F and dropping. This with current 700mb temps at +1C and modeled to get to -3C by 6am tomorrow. Sometimes I really wonder what they do over there... :rolleyes:

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Down to 40F here currently and 0.76" of rain on the day so far with moderate rain continuing.

 

Can see the snow line just up the hill about 5-800' above me now.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Not sure what the Great Falls NWS is smoking honestly... They are forecasting a low of 43F in Bozeman tonight and it's currently 41.8F and dropping. This with current 700mb temps at +1C and modeled to get to -3C by 6am tomorrow. Sometimes I really wonder what they do over there... :rolleyes:

 

That's where the Portland NWS rejects end up.

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Here is their afd, all about eating crow

PREV DISCUSSION...

/ISSUED 541 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017/

Rest of Today through Saturday...The widespread precipitation
event is underway across a large part of our forecast area at
this time. Where precip has been most persistent (ie. Lincoln to
Great Falls to Glasgow), snow levels have fallen as low as around
5000 feet based on webcams and ground truth reports. Model
guidance has not handled snow levels well in this area and
adjustments were made to the forecast through this evening to
account for these trends. North of the above-mentioned area,
precip has been slower to develop. However, recent radar trends
suggest the low/mid level flow is finally beginning to turn more
NE/E, which will lead to enhanced upslope flow and a gradual
filling in of precip with time as we go into this evening. That
said, I still think precip amounts along the Hi-line will be lower
than further south as the current setup favors the central and SW
mountains and adjacent areas.

Initially, most roads over passes should be wet, but as temperatures
fall, impacts should begin at pass level. Given cooler conditions
being seen than was originally forecast, I have upped snowfall
amounts at/above pass level through the event. This will likely lead
to increased impacts for travelers over passes as well as folks
recreating in the mountains. This will also be an impact for all
the fire personnel in operations at this time. For all these
reasons, and it being the first snow of the season, we decided to
up the Winter Weather Advisory to a warning for the central MT
mountains and SW mountains. However, in the Glacier National Park
area, we`ll keep the Advisory as is as snowfall amounts/impacts
look less. On last note. SW MT will see some thunderstorms this
afternoon before transitioning to steady, light/moderate rain and
mountain snow. Precip tapers off from west to east on Saturday.

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Down to 36F here this morning with a rain/snow mix currently. 38F in town.

 

700mb temps are currently at -3C and should continue to drop throughout the day and modeled to bottom out at -7C by tomorrow morning. Should easily be enough for sticking snow here by later this afternoon and likely down to downtown by later tonight.

 

I still feel like 3-6" is a good forecast for here and 1-2" in downtown Bozeman.

 

First snows of the year are always exciting and fun to track, I'll take pics once it starts to accumulate!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Down to 36F here this morning with a rain/snow mix currently. 38F in town.

 

700mb temps are currently at -3C and should continue to drop throughout the day and modeled to bottom out at -7C by tomorrow morning. Should easily be enough for sticking snow here by later this afternoon and likely down to downtown by later tonight.

 

I still feel like 3-6" is a good forecast for here and 1-2" in downtown Bozeman.

 

First snows of the year are always exciting and fun to track, I'll take pics once it starts to accumulate!

 

 

This is the main reason why I will never live in Montana.    ^_^

 

Snow in September and October and also in May and even in June just seems so wrong to me for many reasons.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This is the main reason why I will never live in Montana.    ^_^

 

Snow in September and October and also in May and even in June just seems so wrong to me for many reasons.   

 

I love early season snow, especially after such a hot/dry summer! Come late May and June I can understand some peoples annoyance of the length of the season. The snow is really wet and heavy by then and it's not all that pretty. Usually comes with some tree damage by then as well. 

 

But yeah, you complain about 9 months of rain... Try 9 months of snow!  :D

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I love early season snow, especially after such a hot/dry summer! Come late May and June I can understand some peoples annoyance of the length of the season as the snow is really wet and heavy by then and it's not all that pretty. Usually comes with some tree damage by then as well. 

 

But yeah, you complain about 9 months of rain... try 9 months of snow!  :o

 

 

No thanks!

 

Give me snow between Thanksgiving and Valentines Day.   Even snow in March is pretty annoying.   I prefer to see everything blooming by then.  

I would not like going from hot and smoky to snow.   Too extreme.   Our garden is still going gangbusters.   :)

 

On the upside... this is literally the first time I have not seen smoke on the Flathead Lake cam in weeks.  

 

polsoncam_1.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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