Mountain West Discussion

[Mercurial]

Also, we have less than 50% cloud cover for the first time in weeks (months?).  If we can keep this up for the rest of the day, I'm counting this as our first sunny day since September/October/whenever we last had a sunny day.  (during the monster ridge last month, we just had fog/inversions the whole time)

[Mercurial]

We suck worse than the Pac NW lowlands when it comes to sun.  We're basically always overcast in the winter except when a massive western trough comes through and pushes all the moisture way south of here.  Of course, the same trough will inevitably knock temps way below zero.

 

In unrelated news, NWS point and click looks good here   Warm temps + snow means the gapers are gonna be out in full force bigly next weekend.

 

Tonight

Snow likely after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow. High near 32. South wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Southwest wind around 10 mph becoming east northeast in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Wednesday

Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 23. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Wednesday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 17. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. High near 26. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Thursday Night

Snow. Low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Friday

Snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25.

[Black Hole]

Looks like rain to snow across northern Utah tomorrow into Wednesday. Maybe 1-2" in the valley if all goes well. 

[Kayla]

Our 10 day snow drought is coming to end by tonight here in Bozeman. Expecting up to a foot of snow here by Friday, most of which should fall tonight. NWS is going pretty conservative with 3-6" for Bozeman while the ECMWF/GFS/GEM show 6-10" in town. Looks like the snow could be quite heavy after midnight tonight into tomorrow morning before tapering by late morning. Another system moves in Thursday but it looks like only 1-3" with that one as of right now.

 

Really looking forward to the fresh snow as our snow base here has transformed with the cool nights and warm days we've been having here over the last few days.

[Front Ranger]

I don't want to jinx it, but it looks like we'll finally get a decent storm here next week with the system moving off the Pacific into CA. Looks juicy, but probably borderline temps for snow.

 

I jinxed it! Looks like 0-1" with this storm for me.  <_>

 

Easily the worst winter I've seen here in my 11 years, so far.

[Kayla]

I jinxed it! Looks like 0-1" with this storm for me.  <_>

 

Easily the worst winter I've seen here in my 11 years, so far.

 

Wow, you guys just can't catch a break! Been seeing lots of Colorado plates up this way. Resorts and ski shops in town have seen a big uptick in business cause the snow is so bad in the rest of the West. 

[Front Ranger]

Wow, you guys just can't catch a break! Been seeing lots of Colorado plates up this way. Resorts and ski shops in town have seen a big uptick in business cause the snow is so bad in the rest of the West. 

 

I don't doubt it. With Ninas, we need deep, full-latitude western troughing like 2007-08, 2011-12, or 2013-14 to do well. I think the second half will be much better than the first half here, similar to 2012-13, 2008-09, 2005-06, 1984-85, etc.

 

Black Hole, how is the snow looking in the ski resorts in your area? I have a trip booked for Park City in a couple weeks.

[Kayla]

Been getting dumped on here all morning. Looks like about 8" of new snow on the ground since just 5am with heavy snow continuing. 

 

Currently 25F and dropping.

[Mercurial]

NICE!

 

In related news, lol at the WWA for the Flathead Valley for tomorrow.  3-6" with up to 12" possible.  Talk about a cop out forecast. 

[Mercurial]

For the Flathead Valley, according to NWS Missoula, tomorrow into tomorrow night:

 

WWA: 3-6"

AFD: ~10"

Image they just posted to Facebook last hour: 8-12"

Point and click: 6-14"

 

Lol what a spread.  

[Kayla]

For the Flathead Valley, according to NWS Missoula, tomorrow into tomorrow night:

 

WWA: 3-6"

AFD: ~10"

Image they just posted to Facebook last hour: 8-12"

Point and click: 6-14"

 

Lol what a spread.  

 

Sounds about right! Bozeman and West Yellowstone gets basically ignored down here by the Great Falls NWS as our climate is so much different than the rest of their area. Oh well, just glad I can read the models myself!

[Kayla]

Ended up with 10" here. We're pretty buried here at this point as you can see. In town Nordic trails are AMAZING with about a 20" base now.

 

http://i68.tinypic.com/16ii8ud.jpghttp://i63.tinypic.com/15qrg1w.jpg

[Front Ranger]

I miss snow.

[Black Hole]

I miss snow.

I am heading back to SLC on Saturday. I was sure when I left for 3 weeks I would miss some good storms but nope, just 1.5". What a horrid winter this has been. 

[Black Hole]

I don't doubt it. With Ninas, we need deep, full-latitude western troughing like 2007-08, 2011-12, or 2013-14 to do well. I think the second half will be much better than the first half here, similar to 2012-13, 2008-09, 2005-06, 1984-85, etc.

 

Black Hole, how is the snow looking in the ski resorts in your area? I have a trip booked for Park City in a couple weeks.

 

If you can elaborate on your thoughts for the 2nd half I would love to hear it.

 

As for the resorts they are doing surprising "ok" considering the severe lack of winter. It has been cold enough to produce a lot of artificial snow. In that sense the skiing isn't good but its doable. The storm coming up next week should help too. 

[Black Hole]

 

Ended up with 10" here. We're pretty buried here at this point as you can see. In town Nordic trails are AMAZING with about a 20" base now.

 

http://i68.tinypic.com/16ii8ud.jpghttp://i63.tinypic.com/15qrg1w.jpg

 

What kind of place is this?? I can't believe how much snow you get. Every pattern this winter, no matter what it is, somehow results in you getting dumped on. 

[Kayla]

What kind of place is this?? I can't believe how much snow you get. Every pattern this winter, no matter what it is, somehow results in you getting dumped on. 

 

Its definitely been a great winter but not completely unheard of for up here...yet! Up to 110" of snowfall on the season at my house when the yearly average is probably about that. 83" of snowfall in downtown Bozeman on the season while they average 90" for the year. Bozeman yearly snowfall record is 158" so they have a ways to go but it is only mid January.

 

So, no doubt we are running well above average but not quite record breaking thus far. We're only about 10 minutes south of Bozeman but the added 500' in elevation and sitting up against the Gallatin Mountain range helps with orographic lift and aiding snowfall totals.  

[Front Ranger]

Its definitely been a great winter but not completely unheard of for up here...yet! Up to 110" of snowfall on the season at my house when the yearly average is probably about that. 83" of snowfall in downtown Bozeman on the season while they average 90" for the year. Bozeman yearly snowfall record is 158" so they have a ways to go but it is only mid January.

 

So, no doubt we are running well above average but not quite record breaking thus far. We're only about 10 minutes south of Bozeman but the added 500' in elevation and sitting up against the Gallatin Mountain range helps with orographic lift and aiding snowfall totals.  

 

This reminds me so much of my first winter here, 2006-07. Started early and set all kinds of records as far as total snowfall through Oct-Jan, number of big storms, snow cover (both depth and time), etc. It was a very special winter for the area and I was lucky to get here just in time to experience it. But it definitely has not been the norm!

[Mercurial]

Been a long time since we've had snowpack like this, although the last two winters were pretty good as well (IIRC we had AN snowpack even in the 2015/2016 super nino fiasco, although it melted very quickly in March/April).

 

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/gis/images/mt_swepctnormal_update.png

[crf450ish]

 

Ended up with 10" here. We're pretty buried here at this point as you can see. In town Nordic trails are AMAZING with about a 20" base now.

 

http://i68.tinypic.com/16ii8ud.jpghttp://i63.tinypic.com/15qrg1w.jpg

That’s how it was at my house in Northeastern wa state last winter. Snowfall after snowfall after snowfall. It was epic. Ended up with a hair under 36” of actual snowpack in my front yard towards the middle of March just before it warmed up and began melting. And it melted quickly! Lol

[Black Hole]

The cold air that will be blasting Montana will trickle into Utah a bit on Tuesday but shouldn't do much other than some enhanced canyon winds. 

Next storm system arrives Friday into Saturday. Right now the model spread is between decent and great snowfall but probably at  least something. Most guidance in the 3-6" but a few runs that keep NW flow going longer have had over a foot. We can hope.

[Kayla]

That’s how it was at my house in Northeastern wa state last winter. Snowfall after snowfall after snowfall. It was epic. Ended up with a hair under 36” of actual snowpack in my front yard towards the middle of March just before it warmed up and began melting. And it melted quickly! Lol

 

Wow, that's impressive. Even with 110" of snowfall on the season so far our snowpack hasn't gone over 24" as the dry snow compacts quickly here and we've had quite a few downsloping (Chinook winds) events this season mixed in as well. 

 

How much snow pack do you have there now?

[Kayla]

The cold air that will be blasting Montana will trickle into Utah a bit on Tuesday but shouldn't do much other than some enhanced canyon winds. 

 

Next storm system arrives Friday into Saturday. Right now the model spread is between decent and great snowfall but probably at  least something. Most guidance in the 3-6" but a few runs that keep NW flow going longer have had over a foot. We can hope.

 

That same system looks to come through here Thursday night into Friday and be pretty strong up this way as well. Nice to see it not splitting for once and maintaining its strength into UT/CO!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It snows way more in Bozeman than I ever realized! I guess I assumed the climate was a little drier there then it apparently is...

[Front Ranger]

Actually feels like winter today. Snow showers and 19 degrees currently.

[Kayla]

It snows way more in Bozeman than I ever realized! I guess I assumed the climate was a little drier there then it apparently is...

 

Shhhh...don't tell the snow weenies!! 

 

In all seriousness, even the 90" of yearly snowfall average is probably a little underdone with plenty of M's (missing data) on the climate sheets for Bozeman proper. Even just a couple miles south of downtown you'll see snowfall totals quickly rise to over 100-110" a year on average.

 

Things also really "green up" here come June and stay that way through the summer with a decent amount of summer storms and rain unlike the Portland area where the grasses brown up by late July which makes me sad. 

[crf450ish]

Wow, that's impressive. Even with 110" of snowfall on the season so far our snowpack hasn't gone over 24" as the dry snow compacts quickly here and we've had quite a few downsloping (Chinook winds) events this season mixed in as well.

 

How much snow pack do you have there now?

Not even 10”. 35 degree rain and multiple days with dew points in the 40’s ate up the 15” that was there

[Front Ranger]

Low of -4 at DEN this AM, 0 at my house. The -4 ties DEN's coldest low of the winter so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low of -4 at DEN this AM, 0 at my house. The -4 ties DEN's coldest low of the winter so far.

Pretty weak sauce. I remember being in Denver in late 2015 and it was -14

[Front Ranger]

Pretty weak sauce. I remember being in Denver in late 2015 and it was -14

Yup.

[Dan the Weatherman]

It has been quite a crummy season for most of the intermountain west (except for the far north), the southwest, and for California so far. I hope we get a major change in the pattern that brings some beneficial low elevation rains and mountain snow to the Rockies and Sierras. 

[Black Hole]

A decent storm is still on track to roll in here Friday night into Saturday. Most model guidance suggesting 4-8" but some splitting is possible so I won't get too excited yet.

[Front Ranger]

Classic Colorado crash this weekend. Reached a high of 68 today, tomorrow will feature temps falling through the 40s, and then Sunday probably won't make it out of the 20s. 

 

3-6" predicted for the Sat night/Sunday storm.

[Black Hole]

About 1.5" so far this evening with moderate snow. Should end up in the 4-8" range as I noted the other day and be the biggest of the season so far.

[Kayla]

Ended up with 10" of snow here today and about 6" in town. Another over performing storm, headliner of the season up this way.

 

Was an extremely wet snowfall which is rare for here in January. Temps were in the low 30's all day with falling snow and now skies are beginning to clear with a current temp of 26F and dropping.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Ended up with 10" of snow here today and about 6" in town. Another over performing storm, headliner of the season up this way.

 

Was an extremely wet snowfall which is rare for here in January. Temps were in the low 30's all day with falling snow and now skies are beginning to clear with a current temp of 26F and dropping.

 

I am glad to hear someone is getting decent snow in the western part of the country this year. For much of the west, this has been a rather poor snow season so far to date. Hopefully Black Hole finally gets some decent totals!

[Black Hole]

Guys, it finally really snowed! I have 8" on the ground and it will keep going for a while yet. 

[Kayla]

Guys, it finally really snowed! I have 8" on the ground and it will keep going for a while yet. 

 

Awesome!! How much did you end up with?

[Kayla]

I am glad to hear someone is getting decent snow in the western part of the country this year. For much of the west, this has been a rather poor snow season so far to date. Hopefully Black Hole finally gets some decent totals!

 

Yeah, I definitely feel for you guys. I've never seen such a horrible snowpack in the Sierras in late January. Still plenty of time for a March Miracle though!

 

The snowpack in the Rockies in Montana meanwhile are doing very well. Probably our best season since 2008-09. 

 

[Front Ranger]

Guys, it finally really snowed! I have 8" on the ground and it will keep going for a while yet. 

 

Nice! The storm system has slowed down, which meant more snow for your and hopefully more snow for me tomorrow.

 

Potential for a blizzard warning for the plains of CO, as there should be winds of 40-50 mph during the period of heaviest snowfall.