Jump to content

Mountain West Discussion


Black Hole

Recommended Posts

Been quiet for a few days but more action starting up. Looks like some wet and potentially strong storms the next two days here. Flash flood watch posted.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We had some decent lightning and brief rain but nothing noteworthy here. Quiet for a long time coming now with highs near 90 and sunny.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We did get thunderstorms last night so that was fun, .42" in the bucket. Large instability present right now with 2000+ MU CAPE and an LI of -8.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am at 2.71" for August which is way above normal. The weather service office is probably on average a little drier than me and they average .78" in August. So if we use it anyway that puts me at roughly 350% of normal.

 

More light showers in the area today but we are expecting a good soaking Friday into Saturday with more rain possible next Monday night. I bet I have about 3-3.5" or so by months end.

 

July was also above normal with 1.28" at my house, airport average .70".

 

For the year I am at 15.42", the weather service averages 15.73" on the year. So With quite a bit of time left I could be well above normal there too. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am at 2.71" for August which is way above normal. The weather service office is probably on average a little drier than me and they average .78" in August. So if we use it anyway that puts me at roughly 350% of normal.

 

More light showers in the area today but we are expecting a good soaking Friday into Saturday with more rain possible next Monday night. I bet I have about 3-3.5" or so by months end.

 

July was also above normal with 1.28" at my house, airport average .70".

 

For the year I am at 15.42", the weather service averages 15.73" on the year. So With quite a bit of time left I could be well above normal there too. 

You have done pretty well for the year so far, and have received more precipitation (liquid equivalent or otherwise) than San Francisco had during the 2013-14 (July 1 - June 30) season as they only totaled 12.54". I am assuming that your total is for the calendar year from January 1 to the present.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You have done pretty well for the year so far, and have received more precipitation (liquid equivalent or otherwise) than San Francisco had during the 2013-14 (July 1 - June 30) season as they only totaled 12.54". I am assuming that your total is for the calendar year from January 1 to the present.

Yeah Jan 1 to present. And its nice because we really did need it. Mountain areas have done well too so hopefully this helps you guys out down the road as it drains into the Colorado.

  • Like 1

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Two thunderstorms here on the day so far with more coming and steady rain overnight. Pretty weird for this time of year.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some big thunderstorms across the area last night. Not too much action at my place but I picked up enough rain to be at 3.06" for the month of August now. Still expecting more Sunday night and again Monday night or Tuesday.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

More showers and storms bumped me to 3.38" for the month. A few more are expected today so maybe I end up at about 3.5" for august.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What is the average total precip for August for your area?

The airport average is .69, so although I think I am on average a little wetter it probably isn't much. Lets just use that, that would then put me at about 500% of normal for the month.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The airport average is .69, so although I think I am on average a little wetter it probably isn't much. Lets just use that, that would then put me at about 500% of normal for the month.

Wow, you have had quite a good month as far as rainfall goes. Hopefully this means that a much better winter is ahead for the West in general, but that is certainly not a guarantee, as active summer patterns don't necessarily lead to more active winter patterns.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, you have had quite a good month as far as rainfall goes. Hopefully this means that a much better winter is ahead for the West in general, but that is certainly not a guarantee, as active summer patterns don't necessarily lead to more active winter patterns.

 

Well if nothing else it should help to raise water levels both here and downstream. I do think that an active monsoon resembles the older el nino patterns that often had wet winters to follow with an active STJ. So although its hard to say, I think odds favor a wetter winter for that reason...and because its been a while since we both have seen one.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well if nothing else it should help to raise water levels both here and downstream. I do think that an active monsoon resembles the older el nino patterns that often had wet winters to follow with an active STJ. So although its hard to say, I think odds favor a wetter winter for that reason...and because its been a while since we both have seen one.

I agree with you that the odds of a wetter winter are better this year, especially with the PDO being positive for much of this year so far. Hopefully the PDO remains positive going into the fall and winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is for the airport, but a good illustration of the month of August.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=slc

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We had a thunderstorm this morning with .09" then another shower in the afternoon, for a while it was blue sky overhead which was fun. Another shower approaching now.

 

Big surge of monsoonal moisture coming up from the south. Probably going to see some serious rain in the south with several inches possible. Up here it looks wet but much less so. Probably more storms and less just heavy rain.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi Black Hole. I am a long-time reader of this weather forum and some other weather forums though I don't post often. I enjoy studying the weather and its many aspects. I have a question for you regarding this upcoming weather this Fall and Winter. Do you think the same as some meteorologists when it comes to super early (perhaps record-breaking) start to snow season?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi Black Hole. I am a long-time reader of this weather forum and some other weather forums though I don't post often. I enjoy studying the weather and its many aspects. I have a question for you regarding this upcoming weather this Fall and Winter. Do you think the same as some meteorologists when it comes to super early (perhaps record-breaking) start to snow season?

You should post more often! I would love to have somebody else who lives here to talk with.

 

As far as this fall/winter I think that it should be said first that nobody knows for sure. However el nino climatology suggests that an early start to fall/winter is more likely than not. Therefore I agree with the general prognosis that we may see an early start this year. I certainly hope we do!

  • Like 1

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking ahead I can see another pacific hurricane taking the same path as Norbert did. So although it would be hard to top the last storm, the potential exists for more heavy rain throughout Utah again. This will be next Thurs and Fri.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

I wish other people posted in here!!!

 

Possible big and cold storm for this next weekend. Early estimates would be .50-.75" of water and snow down to 8-9k feet.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How early can you get snow in the valley?

We are already in snow season technically. The earliest accumulating snow on record was on the 16th or 18th of this month, 2". One computer model earlier showed borderline snow next week actually, although I doubt it happens its nice to see.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wish other people posted in here!!!

 

Possible big and cold storm for this next weekend. Early estimates would be .50-.75" of water and snow down to 8-9k feet.

Maybe some of these subforums that don't have too many people posting need to be combined to form a larger region with more members so that there is more activity. Then later on if the membership grows and there are a sizable number of people in each region, then they can be split once again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We'll see. The downside with a larger group is that new members tend not to post when all they see is "Seattle Weather".

I don't think the Pacific Northwest subforum needs to be combined with any other subforum, since it is large enough to stand alone. I was thinking more of having the Mountain West and Desert SW in one subforum merged for example, and possibly other areas adjacent to one another in which one subforum is used much less than the other.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think this was a good move combining these.

I think we will get a few more people posting in here now, as the weather patterns in both regions are closely related most of the time. When I see significant future monsoon events or other weather in places such as AZ or NV, I will certainly post them here if they are noteworthy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You should post more often! I would love to have somebody else who lives here to talk with.

 

As far as this fall/winter I think that it should be said first that nobody knows for sure. However el nino climatology suggests that an early start to fall/winter is more likely than not. Therefore I agree with the general prognosis that we may see an early start this year. I certainly hope we do!

Sorry. I currently do not come on this forum often. I should. I too would like someone else to chat with about the weather. Utah, especially the Wasatch Front (Ogden, Salt Lake City, and Provo Valleys) has one of the most dynamic climates, especially from mid-Fall through early Spring. You seem to know your stuff about the weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models still going crazy with precip Saturday for Utah. Most are in the 1-2" range in just a 6-12 hour period.

One model currently suggests that the Wasatch Front will be super close to the rain/snow line on Wednesday/Thursday of next week. Yes this weekend's storm looks fairly strong for this time of year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One model currently suggests that the Wasatch Front will be super close to the rain/snow line on Wednesday/Thursday of next week. Yes this weekend's storm looks fairly strong for this time of year.

Yeah I saw that, for not I'm not buying it!

 

But the storm this weekend looks fun. I think the less it pinches off initially the better. Tends to result in better dynamics. I will post a full forecast later tonight.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah I saw that, for not I'm not buying it!

 

But the storm this weekend looks fun. I think the less it pinches off initially the better. Tends to result in better dynamics. I will post a full forecast later tonight.

Sounds great! There are still some model runs today that are suggesting that an even colder storm (colder than this weekend's storm) may come in Wednesday or Thursday of next week with a snow level near 6,000 feet. Probably won't happen but if it does, it would be quite early and cold for this time of the year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still waiting for the rest of the 00z guidance to come in to try and get a better feel for things. But GFS is getting slower and slower with the arrival of the heavier rain. It still comes, but if its to be believed, it might be Saturday evening before it arrives.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As of right now I think we are looking first a mostly warm, windy, and sunny day tomorrow. Clouds will increase in the afternoon and it looks like thunderstorms will blow up in the evening, but will not be widespread. Good shear, instability, diffluence aloft, and increasing moisture make storms a good bet. Some may even be severe, but probably not for us.

 

These showers will continue into Saturday morning. As the front negatively tilts (back away from us), looks like we get a few drier hours in. Later the front will push through with a 3-6 hour period of heavy rain I think. Probably .5-1" for most.

 

Thoughts yourself?

 

As for next week I do see what you are talking about but my attention has been elsewhere lol. I will look into that storm in greater detail after ECMWF/Canadian come out later.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still waiting for the rest of the 00z guidance to come in to try and get a better feel for things. But GFS is getting slower and slower with the arrival of the heavier rain. It still comes, but if its to be believed, it might be Saturday evening before it arrives.

Agreed. I, too, think that the heaviest rain begins in the evening on Saturday, probably sometime between 6-8pm with light to moderate rain before this and with a good chance of a thunderstorm or two before the heaviest rain begins.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As of right now I think we are looking first a mostly warm, windy, and sunny day tomorrow. Clouds will increase in the afternoon and it looks like thunderstorms will blow up in the evening, but will not be widespread. Good shear, instability, diffluence aloft, and increasing moisture make storms a good bet. Some may even be severe, but probably not for us.

 

These showers will continue into Saturday morning. As the front negatively tilts (back away from us), looks like we get a few drier hours in. Later the front will push through with a 3-6 hour period of heavy rain I think. Probably .5-1" for most.

 

Thoughts yourself?

 

As for next week I do see what you are talking about but my attention has been elsewhere lol. I will look into that storm in greater detail after ECMWF/Canadian come out later.

Okay. I currently mainly look at the GFS model's numerical output and the NAM, not the ECMWF or Canadian models as I don't really understand how to read/interpret them. I think that there will be at least 1" of rainfall with this weekend's storm for most areas of Utah with some areas receiving 2" of rain by Monday. I am looking forward to more thunderstorms over the next two to three days. This weekend's storm should introduce us to true Fall weather. I appreciate you looking at the ECMWF and Canadian models regarding next week's possible storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Okay. I currently mainly look at the GFS model's numerical output and the NAM, not the ECMWF or Canadian models as I don't really understand how to read/interpret them. I think that there will be at least 1" of rainfall with this weekend's storm for most areas of Utah with some areas receiving 2" of rain by Monday. I am looking forward to more thunderstorms over the next two to three days. This weekend's storm should introduce us to true Fall weather. I appreciate you looking at the ECMWF and Canadian models regarding next week's possible storm.

We can work on that sometime then. I can get you started on those.

 

Basically looks good on all models still. Every single one of them is 1" or more.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140925&RT=21&PRM=Total-QPF&SID=SLC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap

 

This is the SREF for SLC, it has a mean precip total of 1.52" which is crazy for here.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Super heavy rain has fallen here in the past hour. Quite a bit of lightning and thunder early this morning as well. I think that heaviest rain from this storm is still expected to come in this evening and tonight, correct Black Hole? What is the chance of severe thunderstorms today for the Wasatch Front?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...