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For us in Utah our storm begins tomorrow. First wave lifts north tomorrow morning through the area. Chance we could see some storms fire along that boundary. Behind it we will see subsidence and some clouds with the monsoonal moisture so tomorrow afternoon may be quieter. However good upper level dynamics such as the PV anomaly and diffluence should keep the risk of showers present.

 

Approaching trough with strong moisture and temperature gradient Tuesday should kick of more rain and storms by the afternoon. This looks better organized than what we see Monday. Continued upper level support will be present.

 

Finally Wednesday we see a strong cold front (frontogenic) along with the coldest air aloft and deep moisture convergence along the front. This one will be the strongest of them all with heavy rain and thunderstorms likely as the front plows through. Some models are keeping yet another trailing feature for Thursday so we will see.

 

Storm total: .5-1.5" areawide. Highs in the low 60s Wednesday with lows in the 40s.

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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For us in Utah our storm begins tomorrow. First wave lifts north tomorrow morning through the area. Chance we could see some storms fire along that boundary. Behind it we will see subsidence and some clouds with the monsoonal moisture so tomorrow afternoon may be quieter. However good upper level dynamics such as the PV anomaly and diffluence should keep the risk of showers present.

 

Approaching trough with strong moisture and temperature gradient Tuesday should kick of more rain and storms by the afternoon. This looks better organized than what we see Monday. Continued upper level support will be present.

 

Finally Wednesday we see a strong cold front (frontogenic) along with the coldest air aloft and deep moisture convergence along the front. This one will be the strongest of them all with heavy rain and thunderstorms likely as the front plows through. Some models are keeping yet another trailing feature for Thursday so we will see.

 

Storm total: .5-1.5" areawide. Highs in the low 60s Wednesday with lows in the 40s.

 

 

I'm ready! Should be an interesting weather discussion tomorrow! 

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.85" so far (.79" of that today) at my house. We had some training thunderstorms with a lot of lightning earlier. Looks like another solid batch tomorrow which could drop maybe 1/2" and a bit more on Thursday. This may be all the rain we get this month but its turned out to be a pretty fun stretch.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Cold front is pushing south of Provo now with gusty NW winds across the Salt Lake area and cooling temperatures. Its in the upper 40s now here at the University of Utah.


Rain continues to be more impressive on radar than models such as the HRRR predicted. Interesting thing is that the front isn't progged to move much further east, and yet all models continue to paint some precipitation over it. May end up well over an inch of rain. Already .81" at my house in Bountiful with hours to go!


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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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1.06" at my house and .79" at the University. Highest I could find was 1.54" in the valleys.

 

Looks like another chance of rain later today and tomorrow as the next wave rotates in. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Very quiet weather this week for northern Utah. Some storms to the south though as that next tropical system moves in. Mid range outlook as unusually warm and sunny weather continuing. Some hint at a dry cold front possibly passing through in a week to ten days.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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A run at warmest September on record looks likely here, as dry ridging has completely dominated the month. Only .04" at DEN so far, with no change in sight.

 

 

You had a cold, wet spring and early summer.    

 

Nature balances out!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You had a cold, wet spring and early summer.    

 

Nature balances out!  

I hope that nature balances out multiple years of ridging through the core of winter with some real snow this year.

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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How do strong Ninos tend to treat your area?

Hard to say given the small sample size. Of the three that were +2.0 or higher (72,82,97) both 82 and 97 were well above average in terms of temperature with near average snowfall. Both of these winters featured a lot of boring warm stretches but with a few huge storms that skewed the snowfall higher than you would think. Both winters were wetter than average though so we had some rain storms as well.

 

In 72 it was a cold winter with several arctic outbreaks and snowfall was about 130%. 

 

I guess we will just have to see how things set up but the above would seem to suggest we should do ok for snow, just hoping its not too warm. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Hard to say given the small sample size. Of the three that were +2.0 or higher (72,82,97) both 82 and 97 were well above average in terms of temperature with near average snowfall. Both of these winters featured a lot of boring warm stretches but with a few huge storms that skewed the snowfall higher than you would think. Both winters were wetter than average though so we had some rain storms as well.

 

In 72 it was a cold winter with several arctic outbreaks and snowfall was about 130%.

 

I guess we will just have to see how things set up but the above would seem to suggest we should do ok for snow, just hoping its not too warm.

I would look at 1.5 or higher for a bigger sample size, not just tge monster Ninos.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I would look at 1.5 or higher for a bigger sample size, not just the monster Ninos.

 

I suppose, but research really seems to suggest that these monster ninos are their own animal. 

 

Even so, the main thing that seems to matter here more is whether the nino is east or central based. The two modes favor different weather here which is why the el nino climo charts show no correlation for utah. The central mode, which is more common, is usually associated with warm splitty patterns like last winter. The east based mode is often associated with the upper level low closer to the coast which allows it to phase with the STJ. This can result in warm but wet weather as we saw in 2/3 super ninos. However if we broaden this to include other strong ninos the signal still seems similar to me. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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This is a nice paper, pretty short too, that describes what I am talking about for anybody interested.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL052483/full

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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That makes sense.   You might be on the edge of the STJ, so it could go either way.  I agree with Flatiron too about the sample size.   This Nino may not be as strong as the ones you listed.

 

The next few months will be interesting to watch. Nino 3.4 is 2.3 right now and nino 3 is 2.7! We would have to hold it for 3 months though and that may not happen as you said.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Storm system on Thursday night to Friday looks decent. Should see temperatures fall off from the mid 80s for highs to the mid 60s with lows in the upper 40s. Probably 1/4" or so, with another system next week. Overall the pattern may be a bit benign in October if the ECMWF weeklies/CFS are right, but at least as of right now the pattern seems to be becoming more interesting as the jet moves south. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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As a side note the Canadian winter forecast which came out today shows a very cold winter nationwide with a strong subtropical jet blasting through the south with a lot of high latitude blocking to the North. CFS has been showing some cold weather for Nov-early Dec and Late jan-mar. Fun to speculate but I never really buy that stuff. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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As a side note the Canadian winter forecast which came out today shows a very cold winter nationwide with a strong subtropical jet blasting through the south with a lot of high latitude blocking to the North. CFS has been showing some cold weather for Nov-early Dec and Late jan-mar. Fun to speculate but I never really buy that stuff. 

 

Canadian Winter Forecast + Old Farmer's Almanac = gold.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Canadian Winter Forecast + Old Farmer's Almanac = gold.

Yeah basically :P

 

This September has been terrible here outside of a 5 day stretch. But that's been par for the course the last few years.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Yeah basically :P

 

This September has been terrible here outside of a 5 day stretch. But that's been par for the course the last few years.

 

 

We have friends in SLC... two different families that bailed on WA in 2011 for a drier climate after a couple disgustingly wet and gray years here.     Still follow them on facebook and have seen all kinds of posts lately about how gorgeous its been there this month with tons of pictures to prove it.   B)   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We have friends in SLC... two different families that bailed on WA in 2011 for a drier climate after a couple disgustingly wet and gray years here.     Still follow them on facebook and have seen all kinds of posts lately about how gorgeous its been there this month with tons of pictures to prove it.   B)   

You know what I mean though. Terrible in terms of interesting weather. You would love it, 70s and 80s with sunshine most days all month. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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You know what I mean though. Terrible in terms of interesting weather. You would love it, 70s and 80s with sunshine most days all month. 

 

 

It seems like most people would love that!    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Guest Winterdog

As a side note the Canadian winter forecast which came out today shows a very cold winter nationwide with a strong subtropical jet blasting through the south with a lot of high latitude blocking to the North. CFS has been showing some cold weather for Nov-early Dec and Late jan-mar. Fun to speculate but I never really buy that stuff. 

Are you referring to the Environment Canada seasonal forecast?  After reading your post I hurriedly checked out their winter forecast and found they are forecasting well above normal temps for the entire winter.  I expect you are looking at some private forecasting outfit or somebody's blog.  Anyway please post your source as I can use any encouragement I can get for this coming winter.

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It seems like most people would love that!    

 

Yeah I know but I'm not most people.

Are you referring to the Environment Canada seasonal forecast?  After reading your post I hurriedly checked out their winter forecast and found they are forecasting well above normal temps for the entire winter.  I expect you are looking at some private forecasting outfit or somebody's blog.  Anyway please post your source as I can use any encouragement I can get for this coming winter.

It was a single run and it changes a lot, just like all seasonal models. I don't have a lot of faith in winter forecasting from this range, but I have a feeling we see at least one blast of snow and cold even in the PNW.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Some surprise thunderstorms are firing off this evening. I have seen a few good strikes and its pretty windy. Rain showers the next 2 days though.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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I'm new here -- in northern New Mexico as well as in this forum. And I am not a weather geek, although in my maritime-related career I paid a lot of attention to (1) fog, and (2) storms. (There was a LOT of fog, but not many storms, in the San Francisco Bay area, where I worked.)

 

I am a retiree, and a refugee from what I call the namby-pamby, sissy weather of coastal California. Spent most of my life there, where it's always nice and mild, and I always wanted to live somewhere where the weather has character -- some muscle, some teeth.

 

So -- at least for now, we're in the southern Rockies, and I love it. I've seen more lightning in the last 10 months than I had seen all my life before. I love it. (Have I mentioned that I don't like weather that is so *nice* and *pretty* all the time? Yuck.)

 

Today we seem to have turned a corner. My experience here is very short, so I am not a good judge of this. Still, every thunder storm up to now has brought a blast of cold air -- you all know about that; but this is the first one to bring a real chill which has stuck around for the rest of the day and into the evening. I like it. It's real weather.

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I'm new here -- in northern New Mexico as well as in this forum. And I am not a weather geek, although in my maritime-related career I paid a lot of attention to (1) fog, and (2) storms. (There was a LOT of fog, but not many storms, in the San Francisco Bay area, where I worked.)

 

I am a retiree, and a refugee from what I call the namby-pamby, sissy weather of coastal California. Spent most of my life there, where it's always nice and mild, and I always wanted to live somewhere where the weather has character -- some muscle, some teeth.

 

So -- at least for now, we're in the southern Rockies, and I love it. I've seen more lightning in the last 10 months than I had seen all my life before. I love it. (Have I mentioned that I don't like weather that is so *nice* and *pretty* all the time? Yuck.)

 

Today we seem to have turned a corner. My experience here is very short, so I am not a good judge of this. Still, every thunder storm up to now has brought a blast of cold air -- you all know about that; but this is the first one to bring a real chill which has stuck around for the rest of the day and into the evening. I like it. It's real weather.

Welcome to the mountain west! This should be a fun winter for you with above normal snowfall and cold weather. I moved to Utah from Oregon. We sometimes get some long stretches of boring weather but overall there are many more fun events here than in the PNW, or especially So. Cal. Anyway, looking forward to your updates.

 

We will be getting some showers tomorrow evening and Tuesday.

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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I'm new here -- in northern New Mexico as well as in this forum. And I am not a weather geek, although in my maritime-related career I paid a lot of attention to (1) fog, and (2) storms. (There was a LOT of fog, but not many storms, in the San Francisco Bay area, where I worked.)

 

I am a retiree, and a refugee from what I call the namby-pamby, sissy weather of coastal California. Spent most of my life there, where it's always nice and mild, and I always wanted to live somewhere where the weather has character -- some muscle, some teeth.

 

So -- at least for now, we're in the southern Rockies, and I love it. I've seen more lightning in the last 10 months than I had seen all my life before. I love it. (Have I mentioned that I don't like weather that is so *nice* and *pretty* all the time? Yuck.)

 

Today we seem to have turned a corner. My experience here is very short, so I am not a good judge of this. Still, every thunder storm up to now has brought a blast of cold air -- you all know about that; but this is the first one to bring a real chill which has stuck around for the rest of the day and into the evening. I like it. It's real weather.

 

I like you. :)

 

Welcome to the forum. Northern New Mexico has an awesome climate.

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So my paper that I wrote earlier this year on the fog climatology, distribution, and frequency for Northern Utah was officially accepted by the American Geophysical Union last week. I am not sure when it will be printed but its fun to officially have a paper under my name.

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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So my paper that I wrote earlier this year on the fog climatology, distribution, and frequency for Northern Utah was officially accepted by the American Geophysical Union last week. I am not sure when it will be printed but its fun to officially have a paper under my name.

 

Congrats man! Post a link when you find it.

 

I may be following in your path soon. Still haven't decided between meteorology, geology or ecology as my primary area of study, BUT I am currently getting the calculus sequence out of the way, which opens a lot of doors for the sciences in general.

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