Mountain West Discussion

[Black Hole]

Congrats man! Post a link when you find it.

 

I may be following in your path soon. Still haven't decided between meteorology, geology or ecology as my primary area of study, BUT I am currently getting the calculus sequence out of the way, which opens a lot of doors for the sciences in general.

I will!

 

If you can handle the calculus than you would do just fine in meteorology. That is the hardest thing for most people in this major. Although the others both sound interesting too, good luck

[Jesse]

I will!

 

If you can handle the calculus than you would do just fine in meteorology. That is the hardest thing for most people in this major. Although the others both sound interesting too, good luck

 

Thank you! Yeah, I am terribly indecisive between those three.

 

Calculus has been interesting so far. I took it in High School but that was a long time ago. That helps a little, though, because some of it looks familiar to me.

 

Right now we are working on limits, but I know it only is going to get crazier from there!  I am trying to approach it as an opportunity to better understand the world around me, as opposed to a joyless drudge where I am simply memorizing formulas to pass the classes and get them out of the way. Hopefully keeping a positive attitude will make it more enjoyable.

[cogreg]

 

 

[...]

BUT I am currently getting the calculus sequence out of the way, which opens a lot of doors for the sciences in general.

 

I think calculus is beautiful. It is mind-expanding.

I wonder if that's why it is required for science majors, because I've known working scientists -- one a cutting-edge expert in her field -- and they agree that one does not use calculus once out in the "working" science world. Computers do all that work.
 

[Black Hole]

I think calculus is beautiful. It is mind-expanding.

I wonder if that's why it is required for science majors, because I've known working scientists -- one a cutting-edge expert in her field -- and they agree that one does not use calculus once out in the "working" science world. Computers do all that work.

 

I think that you can't do your job right if you don't know what is going on underneath it all. 

[Black Hole]

Quiet weather the next 7-10 days with 70s or low 80s a couple days. 

[Front Ranger]

Have had some rain and cooler weather lately, highs in the 50s and 60s. Actually feeling like fall!

 

Unfortunately, we're back to the 70s and even lower 80s by this weekend. Possibly a substantial cool down by late next week, but too far out to tell yet, of course.

[Front Ranger]

High of 85 today. Disgusting. I'm dying for some real fall weather, highs in the 50s/lows in the 30s.

[Black Hole]

High of 85 today. Disgusting. I'm dying for some real fall weather, highs in the 50s/lows in the 30s.

We had a high of 85F here too. I've had enough but still no rain for another week or so. Also, no cold weather in sight.

[Dan the Weatherman]

We had a high of 85F here too. I've had enough but still no rain for another week or so. Also, no cold weather in sight.

 

We need a pattern change for the entire western third of the country in which systems start coming in from the north that bring cooler air and at least some precip. This stagnant warm to hot weather pattern (depending on location) is really getting old. It really has been warmer than normal in much of the west lately and has been particularly hot in Socal the last couple of days with widespread 90's and 100's across the L.A. Basin.

 

With the El Nino at its current strength, I would expect the weather pattern to start changing very soon to at least something a bit more active than what we have been seeing lately. Of course the full blown effects of El Nino aren't usually seen until later in the year.

[Black Hole]

We need a pattern change for the entire western third of the country in which systems start coming in from the north that bring cooler air and at least some precip. This stagnant warm to hot weather pattern (depending on location) is really getting old. It really has been warmer than normal in much of the west lately and has been particularly hot in Socal the last couple of days with widespread 90's and 100's across the L.A. Basin.

 

With the El Nino at its current strength, I would expect the weather pattern to start changing very soon to at least something a bit more active than what we have been seeing lately. Of course the full blown effects of El Nino aren't usually seen until later in the year.

I don't know how long it will last but a pattern change is coming. Rain likely this weekend in Utah and maybe our first snow about the 25th, but that's way too long to say anything for sure.

[Black Hole]

Still looking at some decent rains this weekend, lots of uncertainty in the mid range forecast, but certainly looks cooler and wetter at times.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Still looking at some decent rains this weekend, lots of uncertainty in the mid range forecast, but certainly looks cooler and wetter at times.

 

I think the overall pattern is beginning to change somewhat. I heard that parts of the Northeast may get their first taste of snow later this week. There could be a Santa Ana wind here in Socal next week, and if that actually happened, then that would mean lower humidity and cooler nights (finally). It has been so hot and humid in Socal lately and it has felt like the middle of summer as opposed to mid-October. Most of the West has been warmer than normal lately, including much of your region.

[Front Ranger]

I think we may finally be done with 80+ days for the year. We've had 6 this month, which is ridiculous. 

 

After DEN's warmest September on record, we have an outside shot at warmest October, but I don't think we'll match the 59.9 from Oct 1950.

[Black Hole]

I think the overall pattern is beginning to change somewhat. I heard that parts of the Northeast may get their first taste of snow later this week. There could be a Santa Ana wind here in Socal next week, and if that actually happened, then that would mean lower humidity and cooler nights (finally). It has been so hot and humid in Socal lately and it has felt like the middle of summer as opposed to mid-October. Most of the West has been warmer than normal lately, including much of your region.

This is a really weird pattern coming up with troughs trying to dive in from the NW but splitting hard into cut off lows off the coast while the southerly stream is trying to get going. Should be a tough forecast the next 2 weeks, but certainly wet at times for the SW region.

[Black Hole]

Tropical moisture surge moving in today with thunderstorms likely this evening. Another round of heavier rain sunday night into Monday morning with scattered showers Monday and maybe Tuesday.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I noticed it raining for a bit at the Arizona St. - Utah game this evening.

[Black Hole]

I noticed it raining for a bit at the Arizona St. - Utah game this evening.

Yeah we got a good slug of moisture heading in now. Should be wet for the next hour or so.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Yeah we got a good slug of moisture heading in now. Should be wet for the next hour or so.

 

It is good to see some rain in your area as it is needed.

[Front Ranger]

No real cold in sight yet, but at least this week will feel like fall after tomorrow. May not get out of the 40s on Wed, then upper 50s/lower 60s on Thu/Fri. And some rain.

[Front Ranger]

Some big boomers tonight. Pretty sure this is the latest I've seen this kind of convection here.

[cogreg]

Yesterday, dark clouds -- maybe cumulostratus? -- moved in over the Taos, New Mexico area. Last night, the low was 42 F. (5.6 C.). There was a period of moderate rain. This morning, there were patches of snow up on the Sangre De Cristo mountains; I don't expect they'll last too long. Looks nice, though.

Now (9:30 a.m. Mountain time [Tango time zone]) it is a little blustery, and raining.

I like it.

[Front Ranger]

Lots of rain overnight. Up to almost 3/4" at my place.

[Black Hole]

Had some gusts to about 30 mph from a minor downslope event last night but nothing too exciting. Looks very benign for the next week, and perhaps longer. No snow possibilities anytime soon, average is Nov 8 but in strong el ninos its about Oct 17.

[Front Ranger]

Afternoon high of 48 here. Daily high came at midnight with 52. Chilliest day in 5 months.

[Black Hole]

Had a little shower tonight but otherwise it was a benign fall day. Next chance of a few showers will be near the 30th.

[Front Ranger]

Second straight day in the 40s here. Chance of record warm October in now probably nil.

[Front Ranger]

Nice to see the mountains covered in snow again. And a perfect day for golf.

 

 

 

 

[Black Hole]

Models are suddenly looking more interesting the next ten days. Cold trough on the 30th with 700mb temps dropping to -6C will put snow down to 6-7k feet if all goes well. Should be some good rains in the valleys too.

 

Surprisingly good agreement on day 8-10 between GFS and ECMWF tonight, but even so its pretty far out. Anyway, both models showing a 4" snowstorm in that period. That would be nice to see after the warmest October and September I think on record.

[weatherfan]

Models are suddenly looking more interesting the next ten days. Cold trough on the 30th with 700mb temps dropping to -6C will put snow down to 6-7k feet if all goes well. Should be some good rains in the valleys too.

 

Surprisingly good agreement on day 8-10 between GFS and ECMWF tonight, but even so its pretty far out. Anyway, both models showing a 4" snowstorm in that period. That would be nice to see after the warmest October and September I think on record.

Hi Black Hole. Thank you for this info, it is good to know. Is there an update about this? What are your thoughts?

[Front Ranger]

Models are suddenly looking more interesting the next ten days. Cold trough on the 30th with 700mb temps dropping to -6C will put snow down to 6-7k feet if all goes well. Should be some good rains in the valleys too.

 

Surprisingly good agreement on day 8-10 between GFS and ECMWF tonight, but even so its pretty far out. Anyway, both models showing a 4" snowstorm in that period. That would be nice to see after the warmest October and September I think on record.

 

SLC wasn't record warm in September. More than a degree cooler than 1990, the warmest on record.

 

Unless you meant warmest Sep-Oct on record, in which case it was easily.

[Black Hole]

Hi Black Hole. Thank you for this info, it is good to know. Is there an update about this? What are your thoughts?

The shorter term is pretty locked in. Showers likely on Thursday and some decent mountain snows. Snow level will bottom out in the 6-7 k foot range. The longer range is still pretty uncertain in terms of timing and intensity. The basic problem relates to how hard the system splits and when. If the split is early and strong we get nothing, if it splits at the right time we will probably see some snow with the wrap around. Keep checking in and I will update this the next few days as we start to know some details.

[Black Hole]

SLC wasn't record warm in September. More than a degree cooler than 1990, the warmest on record.

 

Unless you meant warmest Sep-Oct on record, in which case it was easily.

 Yes that is what I mean. Although I think October will be the warmest on record by itself as well.

[Black Hole]

Definitely going to get a lot colder for a few days in the Nov 2-6th or so timeframe. Snow looks more likely than not, but far from certain. However amounts are probably going to be pretty lackluster unless we get hit right. The first chance will be from wraparound moisture and second from lake effect.

[Front Ranger]

Definitely going to get a lot colder for a few days in the Nov 2-6th or so timeframe. Snow looks more likely than not, but far from certain. However amounts are probably going to be pretty lackluster unless we get hit right. The first chance will be from wraparound moisture and second from lake effect.

 

Nice. I think we may get our first snowfall by the 5th-6th as well. Euro may be demonstrating its well-known bias of holding back too much energy in the SW right now.

[Black Hole]

Nice. I think we may get our first snowfall by the 5th-6th as well. Euro may be demonstrating its well-known bias of holding back too much energy in the SW right now.

Yeah I think so as well. Generally pretty good agreement among all models except for the ECMWF operational. Although the 00z GFS took a nudge towards the ECMWF solution from earlier.

[Black Hole]

Looking like the first part of the storm will not happen, just rain with that. Still up in the air whether lake effect snow occurs or not.

[Jesse]

Looking like the first part of the storm will not happen, just rain with that. Still up in the air whether lake effect snow occurs or not.

 

The backing off has begun.

[Snowman5678]

Looking like the first part of the storm will not happen, just rain with that. Still up in the air whether lake effect snow occurs or not.

Not looking nearly as good as it was a few days ago sadly.  

[Black Hole]

Not looking nearly as good as it was a few days ago sadly.

Agreed. However one thing we can take comfort in is that the ECMWF ensemble strongly favors some snowfall still. I suspect that flakes are highly likely, but that that actual accumulation will be minimal this go around.

 

The one thing that could swing in our favor is that the GSL is at record high temperatures and could provide a big boost to any passing storm.

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro looks pretty good for both of us, in my opinion. Just from a macro level.