Mountain West Discussion

[Black Hole]

Could get some more rain here near Christmas. Been a busy winter so far! 

[Black Hole]

I believe the last I updated before yesterday was after thanksgiving. There were 4 "confirmed" tornadoes around Phoenix that morning. I say that in quotes because the whole thing seemed less than exact but what can you do.

We had some additional severe thunderstorms about a week ago which had 1" hail in parts of the PHX metro. The storm coming near Christmas will probably be wet...but it again may close off on its way in which could lead to another severe threat. Its busier down here than I expected.

[Front Ranger]

This is kinda cool: https://www.weather.gov/bou/top_colorado_wxevents_2010s

 

 

[Black Hole]

70s down here in Phoenix the last few days. Still looking at a decent rain maker on the 24-25th and perhaps another a few days later with highs dropping into the mid 50s. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like I could see a decent storm with at least a few inches when we get back on Saturday.

[Front Ranger]

Got 4" with the storm on Saturday. Totals for 2019-20 so far:

 

DEN: 32.2"

Backyard: 42"

Boulder: 59.3"

[Front Ranger]

The 2019 "Bomb Cyclone" storm made #3 on Colorado's top 12 events of the 2010s: https://www.weather.gov/bou/BombCycloneMarch13th2019

 

I hadn't heard previously that Colorado Springs hit their highest gust on record (96 mph) with this storm...crazy.

[BLI snowman]

This is kinda cool: https://www.weather.gov/bou/top_colorado_wxevents_2010s

 

#1 has to pretty easily be the 2013 flood.

[Front Ranger]

#1 has to pretty easily be the 2013 flood.

 

For sure. 500 year event, or whatever it turned out to be.

 

The fact that Boulder got over 18" of rain that month, twice what they'd ever seen in any month, is still absolutely astounding.

[Kayla]

Haven't been home much this month but it doesn't look like I've missed much. We were definitely due for a dry and warm month and thats just what this December ended up being. Bozeman MSU ran a nearly +5 temp departure and only saw 2.2" of snowfall. Still managing to hold onto 3" of snow cover though.

 

I only saw 4" of snowfall this month bringing my 2019/20 season total to 57". Bozeman MSU season total is 33.9" so far.

[Front Ranger]

Haven't been home much this month but it doesn't look like I've missed much. We were definitely due for a dry and warm month and thats just what this December ended up being. Bozeman MSU ran a nearly +5 temp departure and only saw 2.2" of snowfall. Still managing to hold onto 3" of snow cover though.

 

I only saw 4" of snowfall this month bringing my 2019/20 season total to 57". Bozeman MSU season total is 33.9" so far.

 

Torch! What a change from recent winters. 

 

It's gonna end up warm for DEN too, but thanks to this end of the month cold snap, not nearly the anomaly Bozeman has seen. Still the warmest December since 2010 here.

[Kayla]

Torch! What a change from recent winters. 

 

It's gonna end up warm for DEN too, but thanks to this end of the month cold snap, not nearly the anomaly Bozeman has seen. Still the warmest December since 2010 here.

 

Well, it's a little early to call the winter only one month in!   Things were somewhat similar through January last year then February happened along with collapsing roofs and all-time record cold! Long way to go. No doubt that we are due for a dud of a winter but I'm not sure this is the year...

 

Currently snowing here and looking like 1-3" tonight.

[Black Hole]

I wish more NWS offices did something like the Colorado list that Front Ranger shared. A great read!

[Front Ranger]

Been one of those super windy Chinook patterns here recently. Window-rattling this morning...Broomfield, the nearest official station to me, had a W51/G64 observation at one point.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Been one of those super windy Chinook patterns here recently. Window-rattling this morning...Broomfield, the nearest official station to me, had a W51/G64 observation at one point.

The equivalent of our Santa Ana Winds.

[Kayla]

About to get real cold and real snowy here beginning tomorrow morning after a long dry and warm period over the last 6 weeks or so.

 

All the models are frigid for here now beginning on Monday through next week with the GFS being the most extreme. Snow chances begin tomorrow morning and continue on and off through early next week. Nothing looks like it's holding much moisture but with some crazy (40-50:1) snow ratios the snow should really start to pile up. Mon/Tue period looks especially crazy with around a 0.25" of precip and temps around -15F.

 

06z GFS output

[Front Ranger]

About to get real cold and real snowy here beginning tomorrow morning after a long dry and warm period over the last 6 weeks or so.

 

All the models are frigid for here now beginning on Monday through next week with the GFS being the most extreme. Snow chances begin tomorrow morning and continue on and off through early next week. Nothing looks like it's holding much moisture but with some crazy (40-50:1) snow ratios the snow should really start to pile up. Mon/Tue period looks especially crazy with around a 0.25" of precip and temps around -15F.

 

06z GFS output

Screen Shot 2020-01-08 at 8.38.40 AM.png

 

Those temps would rival some of the all-time great cold waves in Bozeman. Would break a bunch of records from the 14th-16th.

[Kayla]

I've been in that kind of cold before, and I didn't like it.  

 

Me either! Very difficult to do anything outdoors in those kind of temps even for just a few minutes!

[Kayla]

Those temps would rival some of the all-time great cold waves in Bozeman. Would break a bunch of records from the 14th-16th.

 

Yeah. Euro is still not onboard for that kind of cold but at face value the GFS would rival (but still not beat) 1916 and 1930 January cold waves.

 

Speaking of historical data; it looks like January 27th 1916 is the coldest day (tied with two other days from Feb 1989/1933) in Bozeman history with a -22F/-33F day for an average temp of -27.5F. Brutal.

[Black Hole]

Models definitely looking cold across most of the northern Rockies coming up! Let us know what you see Kayla. 

[Kayla]

GFS continues to be ridiculously cold while the Euro is pretty run of the mill kind of cold.  

 

Looks like many more chances of snowfall Sat-Wed. Tuesday looks particularly snowy as the Arctic front moves through. 

 

Snowing pretty heavily out there tonight and 19F currently. Expecting 2-4" by morning.

[Front Ranger]

Been a pretty dreadful January here, with wind being the main story. That remains the case tomorrow, as we'll probably see some 60+ gusts again.

 

Mountains are doing alright with snow, though, so at least there's that.

[Front Ranger]

The boredom continues. 

 

After one of the best Oct/Nov combos in Front Range history for snowfall, the last month and a half has been historically awful. Looks like that continues through the weekend, with the next chance at precip perhaps early next week.

[Black Hole]

Quiet down in Phoenix too. The ECMWF actually showed an inch of snow on day 9 though

Ensemble support for a cool day after this week with maybe some showers. 

[ItBurnsOregon]

Things looking good next week for all the west.

[Front Ranger]

Denver managed to avoid their third snowless January on record by recording half an inch a couple days ago.

 

After a very warm weekend in the 60s, it finally looks like the pattern gets more interesting early next week. Much colder and good chance of decent snowfall Mon/Tue, and then remaining cool to cold after that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Went up to Estes Park last night. There was no snow on the ground there, which I would imagine is unusual this time of year at 7300'. There was an inch or two of fresh snow along HWY 34 between Estes Park and Loveland on the way back. 

[Black Hole]

Still looking good for a deep trough all the way down to Phoenix early next week. Looks windy but probably dry. Some minor ensemble support for a few showers. Long range looks chilly with additional troughs. 

[Front Ranger]

Went up to Estes Park last night. There was no snow on the ground there, which I would imagine is unusual this time of year at 7300'. There was an inch or two of fresh snow along HWY 34 between Estes Park and Loveland on the way back. 

 

Hey, temporary neighbor 

 

Surprise inch of snow here this evening. And yes, it's very unusual to not have any snow on the ground at Estes right now, although they are one of the least snowy places for their elevation on the Front Range.

 

How long are you sticking around?

[Kayla]

Been in Northern Maine for a week now but it looks like a pretty big storm is headed for Bozeman on Sunday. 8-12" of snowfall looks like a real possibility. 

 

Very active pattern looks to continue throughout next week while also turning much colder. Looking forward to returning back home to a winter wonderland!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey, temporary neighbor 

 

Surprise inch of snow here this evening. And yes, it's very unusual to not have any snow on the ground at Estes right now, although they are one of the least snowy places for their elevation on the Front Range.

 

How long are you sticking around?

 

I am already back home. The snow yesterday was a nice surprise though! Sounds like you have more on the way., 

[Front Ranger]

Tomorrow is forecast to get up around 70 here, which is record territory. The high Monday is forecast to be 29, and then 19 on Tuesday.

 

It's possible that there could could be a 1 day temperature drop (high to low) of around 55 degrees, and a 2 day drop close to 70 degrees. The Denver NWS has put together a table of the greatest 1 and 2 day temp drops in Denver history, and it shows that both of these would not quite be top tier: https://www.weather.gov/bou/denvertemperaturechanges 

 

I personally got to experience the insane drops of 2008, 2013, and 2019. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tomorrow is forecast to get up around 70 here, which is record territory. The high Monday is forecast to be 29, and then 19 on Tuesday.

 

It's possible that there could could be a 1 day temperature drop (high to low) of around 55 degrees, and a 2 day drop close to 70 degrees. The Denver NWS has put together a table of the greatest 1 and 2 day temp drops in Denver history, and it shows that both of these would not quite be top tier: https://www.weather.gov/bou/denvertemperaturechanges

 

I personally got to experience the insane drops of 2008, 2013, and 2019. 

 

The 2008 event was incredible. Bartlesville, OK was 74/18 on the 14th and 18/14 on the 15th.

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00003959&year=2008&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[Front Ranger]

Driving around with the AC on today!

 

Not tomorrow.

[Kayla]

15" of snow here and still dumping. Currently 19F. Winter is back!

[Front Ranger]

Absolutely pouring snow in Boulder, about 3" so far, with the heaviest stuff not expected until late this afternoon/tonight. 25 degrees and dropping.

 

This looks like one of those storms where the far west Front Range cities like Boulder get 12"+, and then DEN will probably record 3-4".

[Kayla]

Ended up with 16” here yesterday. Snowpack already doing its thing sitting at 2 above currently.

 

Looks like another big system is right on the heels of this last one. Winter Storm Watches already posted for Wed-Fri.

[Kayla]

Absolutely pouring snow in Boulder, about 3" so far, with the heaviest stuff not expected until late this afternoon/tonight. 25 degrees and dropping.

 

This looks like one of those storms where the far west Front Range cities like Boulder get 12"+, and then DEN will probably record 3-4".

What are you sitting at now? I left DEN at 5pm today and there was maybe an inch on the ground.

[Front Ranger]

What are you sitting at now? I left DEN at 5pm today and there was maybe an inch on the ground.

 

I got about 6" at my place, 8-9" at the office in Boulder. Looks like DEN got 2.8": https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=bou

[Kayla]

After a rather dry Dec/Jan it looks like it is going to be snowing more times than not over the next 7-10 days. 

 

Tomorrow night into Friday a band of heavy snow will stall over the area dropping at least 8-12". More snow to come on Saturday as well.

 

Currently snowing here again and 16F.